Iirc when they discover filch is a squib Ron explicitly says this is what a squib is (“like muggle born wizards, but in reverse and much rarer”).
pku
Karma: 84
Another nitpick, but footnote 14 is wrong: Tonks was a metamorphmagus, not using polyjuice.
Actually now I want to write a spin off short story about this. It always bothered me that hpmor Dumbledore didn’t really get any onscreen moments of awesome, I want to write a story set early in the Voldemort war where, for the first time, a relatively young inexperienced Voldemort has someone pull a successful plot against him by being proactive and he barely escapes (and rewrites some of his list with lessons).
Minor comment but Quirrel doesn’t have a time turner; he just figured out a way to hack the protective shell around Harry’s (which, given it was made to protect against interference by an eleven year old, it’s pretty reasonable he can do).
My open question is: how did Dumbledore know Voldemort was Tom Riddle? When he set himself up as dark Lord he presumably didn’t intend to leave a trace (he didn’t with his David Monroe persona). Did Dumbledore discover it in some plot? Did he conclude it because Voldemort openly use parseltongue somewhere? Was it in the prophecies?
Manhattan – ACX Meetups Everywhere Spring 2025
This assumes speed limits were correctly calibrated at some point. I think the actual cost of road deaths (which are arguably the top single cause of QALY loss even at current historically low rates) is high enough that I suspect it was originally set way too high and is still unreasonably high given the costs.
I think this describes how Eliezer’s grudge against academia has set back AI alignment (even the parts that aren’t related to his organization, since his cultural influence has made this a wider norm).
Partly street design to reduce speeding, partly encouraging other mode shares over private cars (see e.g. here https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/16/how-helsinki-and-oslo-cut-pedestrian-deaths-to-zero )
(Disclaimer: I’m ideological about disliking cars, which makes me less objective than I’d usually prefer to be on LW)
We haven’t solved traffic or auto accidents
Worth noting that this is a policy failure, not a technological one. Some places have solved this—e.g. Oslo has 0-1 car deaths a year—but American cities are unwilling or unable to make the infrastructure changes it takes. I think this is related to the lack of celebration issues—we celebrate change and progress less, and achieve less progress that would require change, because we value progress less than we used to.
I think I was at about the same place for most of it, but unfortunately I didn’t write that one down and can’t go back and check :/.
Lessons from covid predictions: Always use multiple models
Using Betting Markets to Make Decisions
Defining Freedom
San Francisco Meetup: Shallow Questions
Welcome to SF meetups [Edit With Your Details]
Bayesian Reasoning with Unsong Theodicy means we shouldn’t destroy the universe
This mostly matches my experience. By far the most intense version of this I’ve had was the time I tried to play Chess and Go simultaneously (against two different people). I started sweating and shaking. This seems to suggest that not only is thinking a physical effort, you can push yourself much harder under some conditions than others (just like how deadlifts will physically exhaust you much faster than pushups, even if you push yourself to do pushups as hard as you think you can).
After thinking about this a bit more, this says something about Voldemort’s perfect occlumancy in that while he could convincingly become a lot of different characters, there were still parts of his underlying person (CEV?) that genuinely were so unlike other people he couldn’t easily fake not having them.
(Which I guess is semi-confirmed in-story in that it says occlumancy and veritaserum enters the mind through specific surfaces that can be defended, but powerful methods like unbreakable vows/parseltongue/the mirror can’t be blocked with it)