No-Bullshit Optimization/Risk Reduction, Life Extension, EA, Rationality, Startups, Film, MMA. Larry David is my spirit animal.
Read my posts or connect with me: https://www.johncgreer.com/
JohnGreer
Karma: 214
Write more. Writing will help you formulate your thinking which helps in speaking. You’ll also find yourself building your vocabulary.
Go through an online public speaking course.
Join a Toastmasters club.
Make Youtube videos
Watch podcast interviews. Pay attention to how the host asks questions.
Instead of saying “Please talk about X for the next 2 minutes so I can absorb your knowledge.” try “What do you think are the most important concepts in your field? or “What do you think are the biggest misconceptions about your field?” etc.Take a step back and identify your terminal goals.
Are you trying to build more self-confidence?
Are you trying to get over social anxiety? There might be more efficient/upstream ways to solve this like experimenting with supplements, beta-blockers, phenibut, etc.
Are you trying to be more persuasive? Maybe persuasion through conversation isn’t your comparative advantage and you should focus on something else?
Thanks for writing this out!
I think most writing glosses over this point because it’d be hard to know exactly how it would kill us and doesn’t matter, but it hurts the persuasiveness of discussion to not have more detailed and gamed out scenarios.
Yes, same. Thanks so much for compiling it!
“We (Tamay Besiroglu and I) think this claim is strongly overstated, and disagree with the suggestion that “It’s time for EA leadership to pull the short-timelines fire alarm.” This post received a fair amount of attention, and we are concerned about a view of the type expounded in the post causing EA leadership to try something hasty and ill-considered.”
What harm do you think will come if this happens and what do you think should be done instead?
Nice to see other people interested in the topic!
Robert McIntyre, the CEO of Nectome, the brain preservation startup, is probably the person who knows the most about this space.
For those interested, I did a writeup on a talk Robert gave that summarizes his thoughts and process here:https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/N7j4xHkyjKbimmF6A/notes-on-robert-mcintyre-s-brain-preservation-talk-at-the-1
And I interviewed him here:
Thanks for writing this up. I’d be interested in the more in-depth post.
Thanks for sharing this! It’s inspiring to dig up old posts where people talk about their goals and to see how well it worked out.
Yes, I think Pigovian taxes are really interesting and useful. I suppose then I’m looking for examples of privately implemented Pigovian taxes that fixed a problem successfully.
Thanks
Yes, I agree that a grocery store is a great example. I suppose I’m looking for examples where people recognized a problem, changed the incentives, and then it fixed/improved things.
Thanks for writing this up! It’s a good idea and a thing worth experimenting with.
The qualia of enjoyment or not is different for different people. I don’t have the gleeful anticipation of an upcoming twist. My main reason for avoiding spoilers is it ruins the feeling of suspense.
This also applies to sporting events as well. If I’m watching a fight where I know the outcome, it’s much less enjoyable than if I don’t know it. If I know someone wins, I’m not on edge when they’re getting punched and kicked by their opponent like I would be if I thought those blows may decide the fight.
Yes, good idea! I wonder how much we’ll end up needing stored seeds in the future or if we/AI will be able to mitigate any problems.
Is produce quality decaying? You mean where we maximize things like storage ability at the expense of flavor?
I want to visit the Svalbard Global Seed Vault sometime.
Yes, it’s really hard to predict what shifts will happen as we become more and more digital and advanced. Buying and selling human minds might be restricted, though.
I wonder what antiquities will be the most valued.
That’s a cool idea! It’d be funny to have an index fund of the top n rare species. I wonder if anyone is doing/can do this now.
That’s a cool idea! Plot of 2121′s heist movie will be about robbing the San Diego Frozen Zoo
Yes, authenticity matters so much. Original work is a good bet although I wonder where NFTs will bring things.
Re: financial fraud and art. It’s possible we will have AI that will stop that but it’s hard to say.
Yes, success stories in investing in art/collectibles seem like survivorship bias. There are probably ways to sift the wheat from the chaff but like startups, it seems really tough. You can follow the heuristics but even Y-Combinator’s success rate is still so low.
Do you think pre-NFT prints will still be a good bet?
Land is a good option. Technology would be interesting.
I appreciate your analysis! Sounds like a Stradivarius in an ivory and pearl-studded case painted by David Hockney authenticated with film by Quentin Tarantino with the reel stored inside?
Do you collect art? What kind?
I’m curious what collectibles you would actually buy today!
Semi-related: Have you seen Velvet Buzzsaw?
Yes, it’s a good point—people often ignore the storage costs.
I wonder what the future of antiques will be.
The world of limited edition cars is interesting: https://www.jamesedition.com/stories/cars/the-vip-list-question-how-to-gain-access-to-a-limited-edition-supercar-1000117/
It’s apparently discouraged to resell them: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aston_Martin_Valkyrie#Resale_policy
Yes, definitely. I think rare elements are some of the safest bets.
Who have been 6s?