Isn’t the counterfactual trolley problem setup backwards? It should be counterfactual Omega giving you the better setup (not tying people to the tracks) if it predicts you’ll take the locally “worse” option in the actual case, not the other way around, right?
Because with the current setup you just don’t pull and Omega doesn’t tie people to tracks.
Thank you for making and publishing this! It’s interesting to see some more of the background and process that goes into works like HPMOR, both for the sake of appreciation of the work, and for reference in my own story-crafting.