Agree with these points, though Seattle doesn’t seem very dynamic compared to the Bay, LA, NYC, or even Salt Lake. (It seems very normie, to use a pejorative.)
ioannes
Karma: 887
I actually feel like East Bay (Oakland and every place north of Oakland) is really pleasant:
Cost of living isn’t terrible except for rent, and it’s still possible to find good deals on rent, e.g. I’ve lived in North Oakland for 6 years and have only paid more than $1,000/month for one of those years (granted for the rest of the time I’ve been living in group houses or with a partner)
East Bay parks are amazing
Minimal social decay except for downtown Berkeley and parts of Oakland
Wonderful weather for ~10 months of the year (every season except for fire season)
Lots of interesting + diverse people, intellectual communities, and social life
What am I missing?
Got it, thanks for clarifying
For example, Kurzweil’s 1999 predictions of what 2009 would look like were mostly wrong, but if instead you pretend they are predictions about 2019 they are almost entirely correct.
This isn’t right.
See Assessing Kurzweil predictions about 2019: the results – “So, did more time allow for more perspective or more ways to go wrong? Well, Kurzweil’s predictions for 2019 were considerably worse than those for 2009, with more than half strongly wrong”
Yeah, I’m roughly as excited about Microsoft as I am about Facebook or Apple.
I wonder how much of OpenAI they got for their $1B...
Investment idea: basket of tech stocks weighted towards AI
The biggest semiconductor equipment companies (symbols BRKS, LRCX, KLAC, and AMAT) look like decent investments, but not quite cheap enough that I’m willing to buy them.
What do you think of companies like Broadcom, NXP, Marvell, and MediaTek?
(I don’t quite know where these sit in the value chain in relation to the companies you quoted; I believe they’re focused more on chip design and mostly don’t do fabrication)
A nice clip from the Thiel/Cowen interview: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cCwXRlIb8c0
Update: Brave Browser now gives an option to search for archived versions whenever it lands on a “page does not exist”
Great analogy.
Do you have examples of equilibria around these dynamics in the animal world? Do you have a sense of how stable these equilibria are?
e.g. do toxic black-and-red butterflies persist after their non-toxic lookalikes arrive?
[Link] “Will He Go?” book review (Scott Aaronson)
Posting this here for cross-reference:
If I Can’t Have Me, No One Can
[Content warning: a suicide note that deals heavily with sexual violence]
At some point I’d like to interweave the simulacra-levels framework with the discussion of motivations in this post: Altruistic action is dispassionate
They feel related.
StatNews piece on the IHME model: https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/17/influential-covid-19-model-uses-flawed-methods-shouldnt-guide-policies-critics-say/
+1
The adversarial collaboration talks a bit about this.
Pigs: about 100. Conditions for pigs are very bad, though I still think humans matter a lot more.
Very surprised by your ratios here.
cf. the “Is eating meat a net harm?” adversarial collaboration on Slate Star Codex. Look at the surveys they ran as a benchmark.
Yes, I pointed out some of the limitations in the original link. Should still be included in a lit review though.
Makes me think of this David Brooks essay, which includes a profile of the Temescal Commons in Oakland.