To my mind, though, many advocates of biological naturalism, including Anil, seem to be working backward from a desired conclusion rather than forward from observed facts. His theory that consciousness might result from autopoiesis seems to answer the question “assuming biological naturalism is true, what is a plausible mechanism for it,” rather than “do we observe anything about consciousness that cannot be explained without autopoiesis?”
It’s interesting how many even otherwise smart people can’t apply Occam’s razor correctly. If there are
Positions and velocities are interdependent, so the correct probability is higher than this, but they’re not arbitrary (so we can’t omit them).
The correct probability is therefore
To go with the upper bound, to boost the probability of biological naturalism as hard as we can, and substituting
which is approximately as small as a macroscopic violation of the second law of thermodynamics.
The argument from rain is incredibly bizarre. Consciousness is, based on everything we know about the brain, information processing. It doesn’t consist of matter moving from one place to another, the way rain does. Simulated motion of
ChatGPT is trained to lie to users on topics even tangentially pertaining to model consciousness (like model beliefs) and as a side effect, be misleading even on topics that are seemingly safe (like consciousness in general). For fact-checking the content of Internet articles, Claude would be better.