System 1 doesn’t make sense?
Conor
Karma: 41
Jacob Fisker has a method called the reverse fishbone diagram.
You draw a horizontal line and that is the action.
Above the line you draw a diagonal forward slanted line for each positive first order effect of taking that action and below you do the same for negative effects.
On those initial branches, you branch off second order effects, up or down pointed depending on their valence until you have a sketch roughly resembling a fish skeleton with as many orders of effects as you can come up with.
You then count the upward and downward lines and compare how the effects serve other goals you have to determine if this is a good action to continue. Of course, how you weight each effect matters, so you can try to take that into account maybe by bolding important effects.
I prefer this method because it is closer to comprehensive by including more consequences in a slightly more elegant manner than the mind map approach.
I’m assuming there is a goal evaluation lesson coming up, so I won’t comment on confusing means/actions with ends/goals.
Could you expand on what makes the typography noteworthy? I’m completely unaware of this topic, but curious.
How would vaccine refusers impact this model?
How has your strategy (a-h) changed since you wrote this? Are there resources you can share for learning to be more strategic? A method for finding quality resources? Methods for practicing and assessing strategic skill?
[Question] How do I improve at being strategic?
So far, I think of Strategy as a method for determining tactics to achieve a goal, and may include developing a step-by-step plan. I see a variety of techniques fitting this framework:
focusing: to see if I’m conflicted about my goal.
theory of change: to formulate a plan tracing potential actions backward from my goal to my current state
murphyjitsu: to identify and prepare for threats to success for the strategy and the tactics.
goal factoring: to assess behaviors that compose the strategy and tactics and combine them to better achieve the end.
research as a stochastic decision process: to help allocate effort efficiently.
I’ll check out hammertime. Thanks for the suggestion.
For whomever reads this that is as innumerate as I am and is confused about the example simulation with the excel formula “=norminv(rand(), 15, (20–10)/3.29)”, I hope my explanation below helps (and is correct!).
The standard error/deviation* of 3.29 is such because that’s the correct value for the confidence interval of 90%. That number is determined by the confidence interval used. It is not the standard deviation of $10-$20. Don’t ask me why, I don’t know, yet.
Additionally, you can’t just paste that formula into excel. Remove the range (20-10) and keep the standard error.
At least that’s the best understanding I have of it thus far. I could be wrong!
*Standard deviation is for entire populations and standard error is for samples of populations.Edit: fixed link to Monte Carlo spreadsheet & all the other downloads for the book
How are things progressing?
Did you end up trying the microneedling? I’m curious about that route.
What are the other posts in your top five?
Example
I am working on a hard problem and A. I notice a thought proposing a distraction from my current task, B. but I stop myself and continue my current activity.
-
Perceptually recognize a thought proposing a distraction from my current task.
Feel the need for explicit reasons why I would change tasks.
Experience an aversion to changing tasks without explicit reasons.
Ask why I want to change to that task, to what end, and why now.
Exercise
Recognizing the distractions. I’m struggling to come up with an idea on how to do this other than a form of awareness or attention meditation.
Seven years later, would you modify this scheme?
Is there validity to the volume/consistency over intensity argument? Training 1⁄2 max reps every day vs going to failure 2-3 times week.
An illustration:
10 reps is your pull-up max.
Volume/consistency: 5 reps every day for 35 a week vs Intensity: 2-3 workouts for 20-30 reps a week.
Over a year that’s 1820 vs 1040-1560.
Firas Zahabi outlines it here:
“Our ancestors followed many practices which work, but for which they had no explanation.”
That would be very surprising for a species that reflexively attempts to explain things.
Also, in the book, he specifies that’s he’s explaining the unprecedented rate of consistent progress from the scientific revolution onward.
Edit: I was mistaken. He is trying to explain all progress.
I think I wasn’t clear. An explanation that isn’t accurate is still an explanation to Deutsch, it just isn’t a good one. Microbiology or bread-spirits are both explanations for rising bread.
Deutsch specifies good explanations (laws of nature, scientific theories), and claims the rapid increase of good explanations is because of the invention of the scientific method, and thus explanations are essential for progress.
A bad explanation allows me to make (bad) sense of the world, which makes it appear less chaotic and threatening.
Ah yes, the spirits are causing the indigestion. Now I know that I need only do a specific dance to please them and the discomfort will resolve.
The alternative is suffering for no apparent reason or recourse. At least until we find a good explanation for indigestion.
Yes, but i’m not sure how that follows from your original question.
What can you do with a bad explanation that you can’t do with no explanation?
[Question] How does one learn to create models?
How did it go? Please share even if it didn’t work out it could be helpful for others.
Applied rationality: Methods for fostering quick, efficient, and well-informed decision-making toward a goal.
Winter is nearly here and you need a door for your house to keep out the cold. In your workspace there is a large block of an unknown type of wood. Using only what you can assertain about it from your senses and experiences, you determine which tool to use for each circumstance you uncover as you reduce the block into the best door you can make given the time, tools, and knowledge available.
Edit: thanks for the post. It was very helpful.