There will be plenty of accepters until after it ends. So I think what this changes is it reduces the favorable selection in vaccination, because you can’t do as many vulnerable people, reducing death rate cut somewhat. Nursing home residents who don’t vaccinate should still benefit a lot from local here immunity. From what I saw, the elderly refusal rate was relatively low but good data is lacking.
How would vaccine refusers impact this model?
https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-12-31/healthcare-workers-refuse-covid-19-vaccine-access
https://www.news5cleveland.com/news/continuing-coverage/coronavirus/local-coronavirus-news/more-than-half-of-ohios-nursing-home-staff-refusing-vaccine-as-first-round-is-nearly-over
There will be plenty of accepters until after it ends. So I think what this changes is it reduces the favorable selection in vaccination, because you can’t do as many vulnerable people, reducing death rate cut somewhat. Nursing home residents who don’t vaccinate should still benefit a lot from local here immunity. From what I saw, the elderly refusal rate was relatively low but good data is lacking.
The refusers mostly don’t seem to be vulnerable people (as you would expect). So it doesn’t change this model.
Since we are so far not trying to model vaccinations to reduce spread.