Adam B(jellyb)

Karma: 212

Adam B 26 Feb 2024 14:52 UTC
1 point
0
in reply to: Eli Tyre’s comment on: Fatebook for Chrome: Make and embed forecasts anywhere on the web
Here’s an alpha version of a Firefox version!
If you run into any problems, it would be great to hear about them (e.g. by email).

Adam B 16 Oct 2023 8:41 UTC
11 points
2
on: RSPs are pauses done right
most potentially dangerous capabilities should be highly correlated, such that measuring any of them should be okay. Thus, I think it should be fine to mostly focus on measuring the capabilities that are most salient to policymakers and most clearly demonstrate risks.
Once labs are trying to pass capability evaluations, they will spend effort trying to suppress the specific capabilities being evaluated*, so I think we’d expect them to stop being so highly correlated.
* If they try methods of more generally suppressing the kinds of capabilities that might be dangerous, I think they’re likely to test them most on the capabilities being evaluated by RSPs.

Adam B 16 Aug 2023 15:24 UTC
1 point
0
on: Quantified Intuitions: An epistemics training website including a new EA-themed calibration app
We’ve added a new deck of questions to the calibration training app—The World, then and now.
What was the world like 200 years ago, and how has it changed? Featuring charts from Our World in Data.
Thanks to Johanna Einsiedler and Jakob Graabak for helping build this deck!
We’ve also split the existing questions into decks, so you can focus on the topics you’re most interested in:

Adam B 28 Jul 2023 18:26 UTC
3 points
0
in reply to: Yoav Ravid’s comment on: Introducing Fatebook: the fastest way to make and track predictions
This should be fixed now (it was a timezone-related bug!)

Adam B 28 Jul 2023 17:55 UTC
6 points
5
in reply to: mukashi’s comment on: Introducing Fatebook: the fastest way to make and track predictions
I’ve made a basic version of Fatebook for Discord—you can install it here!

Adam B 25 Jul 2023 12:31 UTC
1 point
0
in reply to: mesaoptimizer’s comment on: Introducing Fatebook: the fastest way to make and track predictions
I’ve also added the ability to import your forecasts from a spreadsheet/CSV file, which I think is also useful for switching tools: fatebook.io/import-from-spreadsheet

Adam B 25 Jul 2023 12:30 UTC
1 point
0
in reply to: Raemon’s comment on: Introducing Fatebook: the fastest way to make and track predictions
This is now added (see below)

Adam B 25 Jul 2023 12:29 UTC
1 point
0
in reply to: Joe Kwon’s comment on: Introducing Fatebook: the fastest way to make and track predictions
I’ve now added this! You can also see your track record for questions with specific tags, e.g.:
What links here?
- Adam B's comment on Introducing Fatebook: the fastest way to make and track predictions by Adam B (25 Jul 2023 12:30 UTC; 1 point)

Adam B 25 Jul 2023 12:28 UTC
1 point
0
in reply to: vyasnikhil96’s comment on: Introducing Fatebook: the fastest way to make and track predictions
Thanks, fixed!

Adam B 15 Jul 2023 12:06 UTC
3 points
0
in reply to: Arun Johnson’s comment on: Introducing Fatebook: the fastest way to make and track predictions
Cool thanks! For now you can use https://fatebook.io on your phone, do you think a native app would be much better?

Adam B 13 Jul 2023 10:19 UTC
4 points
0
in reply to: Aryeh Englander’s comment on: Introducing Fatebook: the fastest way to make and track predictions
Thanks for asking—I’m interested in doing iOS and Android apps! It’d be helpful to hear if other people are keen for this to help prioritise.
For now, one option is to add a homescreen shortcut to the website in Chrome.

Adam B 12 Jul 2023 15:31 UTC
2 points
0
in reply to: Celarix’s comment on: Introducing Fatebook: the fastest way to make and track predictions
Thanks! And thanks for mentioning this bug where the contents of comments were lost—I’ve now fixed this, comments made from now on should be recorded properly.

Adam B 12 Jul 2023 15:22 UTC
21 points
0
in reply to: mesaoptimizer’s comment on: Introducing Fatebook: the fastest way to make and track predictions
I’ve added a feature to export all your forecasts to CSV, thanks for the suggestion!

Adam B 12 Jul 2023 9:52 UTC
1 point
0
in reply to: mukashi’s comment on: Introducing Fatebook: the fastest way to make and track predictions
Currently it’s not—just Slack and web. What would do you think you’d use it for in Discord?

Adam B 12 Jul 2023 7:16 UTC
2 points
1
in reply to: mesaoptimizer’s comment on: Introducing Fatebook: the fastest way to make and track predictions
I agree—I think data export is especially important for a prediction platform so you’re confident making long-run predictions.

I’m planning to add import/export to spreadsheet, and maybe also to JSON, probably this week. If anyone has thoughts about the format of this data lmk!

Adam B 11 Jul 2023 17:35 UTC
2 points
0
in reply to: Garrett Baker’s comment on: Introducing Fatebook: the fastest way to make and track predictions
Glad to hear it!
For PredictionBook users: you can import all your historical predictions to Fatebook here: https://fatebook.io/import-from-prediction-book

Adam B 27 Sep 2022 14:25 UTC
22 points
18
on: How I buy things when Lightcone wants them fast
This is a great collection of tips! I think it’s also worth explicitly noting that most of these strategies involve slowing down other people’s orders, and many involve more inconvenience/stress for the sellers, so it’s important to weigh this tradeoff.

Adam B 21 May 2022 12:18 UTC
3 points
in reply to: lc’s comment on: Beware boasting about non-existent forecasting track records
If you’re right, you will all be dead, so it won’t matter
Posting a concrete forecast might motivate some people to switch into working on the problem, work harder on it, or reduce work that increases risk (e.g. capabilities work). This might then make the forecast less accurate, but that seems like a small price to pay vs everyone being dead. (And you could always update in response to people’s response).

Adam B 12 Apr 2022 9:08 UTC
5 points
in reply to: acylhalide’s comment on: How to Best Use Twitter
There are also Twitter Communities, which are relatively new. For example, there’s an effective altruism one https://twitter.com/i/communities/1492420299450724353 and a (less active) forecasting one https://twitter.com/i/communities/1494107174519427072

Adam B 29 Jun 2021 9:28 UTC
4 points
in reply to: Neel Nanda’s comment on: Intentionally Making Close Friends
Hits-based befriending and recursive curiosity both sound great!