(Astronomical) suffering risks, also known as s-risks, are risks of the creation of intense suffering in the far future on an astronomical scale, vastly exceeding all suffering that has existed on Earth so far.
S-risks are an example of existential risk (also known as x-risks) according to Nick Bostrom’s original definition, as they threaten to “permanently and drastically curtail [Earth-originating intelligent life’s] potential”. Most existential risks are of the form “event E happens which drastically reduces the number of conscious experiences in the future”. S-risks therefore serve as a useful reminder that some x-risks are scary because they cause bad experiences, and not just because they prevent good ones.
Within the space of x-risks, we can distinguish x-risks that are s-risks, x-risks involving human extinction, x-risks that involve immense suffering and human extinction, and x-risks that involve neither. For example:
|extinction risk||non-extinction risk|
|suffering risk||Misaligned AGI wipes out humans, simulates many suffering alien civilizations.||Misaligned AGI tiles the universe with experiences of severe suffering.|
|non-suffering risk||Misaligned AGI wipes out humans.||Misaligned AGI keeps humans as “pets,” limiting growth but not causing immense suffering.|
A related concept is hyperexistential risk, the risk of “fates worse than death” on an astronomical scale. It is not clear whether all hyperexistential risks are s-risks per se. But arguably all s-risks are hyperexistential, since “tiling the universe with experiences of severe suffering” would likely be worse than death.
There are two EA organizations with s-risk prevention research as their primary focus: the Center on Long-Term Risk (CLR) and the Center for Reducing Suffering. Much of CLR’s work is on suffering-focused AI safety and crucial considerations. Although to a much lesser extent, the Machine Intelligence Research Institute and Future of Humanity Institute have investigated strategies to prevent s-risks too.
Another approach to reducing s-risk is to “expand the moral circle” together with raising concern for suffering, so that future (post)human civilizations and AI are less likely to instrumentally cause suffering to non-human minds such as animals or digital sentience. Sentience Institute works on this value-spreading problem.
Reducing Risks of Astronomical Suffering: A Neglected Global Priority (FRI)
Suffering-focused AI safety: Why “fail-safe” measures might be our top intervention PDF (FRI)
Artificial Intelligence and Its Implications for Future Suffering (FRI)
Expanding our moral circle to reduce suffering in the far future (Sentience Politics)