Moore’s Law

TagLast edit: 1 Oct 2020 1:29 UTC by Ruby

Moore’s Law is a term attributed to Intel founder Gordon E. Moore who observed in 1965 that the number of transistors that could be purchased inexpensively and placed on an integrated circuit doubles every year. In 1975, he revised his estimate to every two years. It is often discussed as a doubling every 18 months, but that is a separate claim by David House, Intel executive, of overall chip performance. Moore’s law been approximately correct for four decades.

Though current CMOS technology is predicted to be nonviable below a certain size, many other technologies offer the potential for far greater miniaturization. This may delay Moore’s law temporarily while the new technologies enter full-scale production. An end to Moore’s law has often been predicted, but has failed to materialize so far.

Moore’s law is often cited as a reason to expect the creation of an AGI in the future, and is crucial for the possibility of whole brain emulation.


[Question] Has Moore’s Law ac­tu­ally slowed down?

Matthew Barnett20 Aug 2019 19:18 UTC
14 points
8 comments1 min readLW link

Slow­ing Moore’s Law: Why You Might Want To and How You Would Do It

gwern10 Mar 2012 4:22 UTC
31 points
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Why is mem­ory but not CPU fol­low­ing Moore’s law?

PhilGoetz23 Oct 2011 6:46 UTC
2 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

Why AI may not foom

John_Maxwell24 Mar 2013 8:11 UTC
28 points
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Sce­nario analy­ses for tech­nolog­i­cal progress for the next decade

VipulNaik14 Jul 2014 16:31 UTC
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