Moore’s law is a term attributed to Intel founder Gordon E. Moore who observed in 1965 that the number of transistors that could be purchased inexpensively and placed on an integrated circuit doubles every year. In 1975, he revised his estimate to every two years. It is often discussed as a doubling every 18 months, but that is a separate claim by David House, Intel executive, of overall chip performance. Moore’s law been approximately correct for four decades.
Though current CMOS technology is predicted to be nonviable below a certain size, many other technologies offer the potential for far greater miniaturization. This may delay Moore’s law temporarily while the new technologies enter full-scale production. An end to Moore’s law has often been predicted, but has failed to materialize so far.
Moore’s law is often cited as a reason to expect the creation of an AGI in the future, and is crucial for the possibility of whole brain emulation.
References
Gordon Moore’s orignal 1965 paper Electronics, Volume 38, Number 8, April 19, 1965
Progress in Digital Integrated Circuits Transcript of 1975 speech by Gordon Moore