Availa­bil­ity Heuristic

TagLast edit: 3 Oct 2020 15:45 UTC by Swimmer963 (Miranda Dixon-Luinenburg)

The availability heuristic judges the probability of events by the ease with which examples come to mind. Sometimes this heuristic serves us well, but the map is not the territory; the frequency with which concepts occur in your thoughts need not reflect the frequency with which they occur in reality. Undue salience, selective reporting, even subtle features of how the human brain stores and recalls memories can distort our perceptions about the probability of events. Because it is easier to recall words by their first letter, people judge words that begin with the letter r to be more frequent than words with r as their third lettter, even though in fact, the latter is more frequent. A second example is that selective reporting by the media of dramatic tragedies makes them seem more frequent than more threatening, albeit mundane, risks.

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Eliezer Yudkowsky6 Sep 2007 6:55 UTC
152 points
23 comments2 min readLW link

Availa­bil­ity Heuris­tic Con­sid­ered Ambiguous

Gram_Stone10 Jun 2016 22:40 UTC
15 points
6 comments7 min readLW link

Availa­bil­ity Heuris­tic and Get­ting Stranded: Stay With Your Car Or Seek Help?

JQuinton18 Jun 2012 20:37 UTC
3 points
13 comments1 min readLW link

Availa­bil­ity bias- please help me find a study

Vaniver10 Apr 2011 21:23 UTC
5 points
2 comments1 min readLW link

In­ter­nal Availability

royf8 Oct 2012 6:19 UTC
5 points
9 comments3 min readLW link

Mak­ing His­tory Available

Eliezer Yudkowsky31 Aug 2007 19:52 UTC
171 points
85 comments3 min readLW link

[SEQ RERUN] Availability

MinibearRex19 Aug 2011 4:29 UTC
8 points
1 comment1 min readLW link

Crowd­sourc­ing the availa­bil­ity heuristic

kalla72425 Apr 2012 6:20 UTC
43 points
40 comments7 min readLW link

Meetup : Wash­ing­ton, D.C.: Availa­bil­ity Heuristic

RobinZ29 Sep 2015 15:43 UTC
3 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

Ra­tional Home Buying

Scott Alexander27 Aug 2011 0:15 UTC
165 points
138 comments7 min readLW link

Mo­ravec’s Para­dox Comes From The Availa­bil­ity Heuristic

james.lucassen20 Oct 2021 6:23 UTC
33 points
2 comments2 min readLW link

Mere ex­po­sure effect: Bias in Eval­u­at­ing AGI X-Risks

27 Dec 2022 14:05 UTC
0 points
2 comments1 min readLW link
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