AI Doom Markets
I want to draw your attention to some AI doom markets I created on manifold.
The most active one is “If AI kills everyone, how will it do it?”: https://manifold.markets/IhorKendiukhov/if-ai-kills-everyone-how-will-it-do. Interestingly, most likely option right now is “Gradual resource monopolization / slow squeeze”, and then, more predictably, goes “Engineered pandemic”.
I just created “If AI wipes out humanity, which organization will be primarily responsible for the development of this AI?”: https://manifold.markets/IhorKendiukhov/if-ai-wipes-out-humanity-which-orga. It’s empty right now, so probabilities are meaningless. I personally think it would be Anthropic, if I have to select one (because it looks like RSI will be launched by Anthropic firstly).
Another, rather non-serious market—“If an AI wipes out humanity on Earth, what will be true of this AI?”: https://manifold.markets/IhorKendiukhov/if-an-ai-wipes-out-humanity-on-eart. However, it reveals that currently people don’t believe that optimized not-deep-learning-based successors will have to be created by AIs to achieve enough of strategic advantage to wipe out humanity.
2 relevant markets about Yudkowsky’s opinions:
4.1. “Will Yudkowsky claim that he is more than 50% sure that AI will kill everyone no later than 1 year after the claim?”: https://manifold.markets/IhorKendiukhov/will-yudkowsky-claim-that-he-is-mor
4.2. “Will Yudkowsky claim that he is more than 90% sure that AI will kill everyone no later than 1 year after the claim?”: https://manifold.markets/IhorKendiukhov/will-yudkowsky-claim-that-he-is-mor-f2h2nq5epx
“Will there be an international moratorium on frontier AGI development by EOY 2033?”: https://manifold.markets/IhorKendiukhov/will-there-be-an-international-mora
“Will there be a military operation to slow down AI development”:
6.1. By 2030: https://manifold.markets/IhorKendiukhov/will-there-be-a-military-operation-312w0l1eba
6.2. By 2035: https://manifold.markets/IhorKendiukhov/will-there-be-a-military-operation
And related markets by other people:
“If AI wipes out humanity, will it resolve applicable markets correctly?”: https://manifold.markets/JonathanRay/if-ai-wipes-out-humanity-will-it-re
“If AI wipes out humanity, what will it make of the universe?”: https://manifold.markets/JonathanRay/if-ai-wipes-out-humanity-what-will
“Will AI wipe out all biological life on Earth before 2100?”: https://manifold.markets/LarsDoucet/will-ai-wipe-out-all-biological-lif
Note that many markets are not liquid. But let’s make them liquid!
Since traders in many of these markets[1] can’t benefit from their shares resolving YES, these markets effectively serve as mana-weighted polls. This may be what you were aiming for, and I think it is interesting, but I would be careful to interpret the results accordingly.
e.g. “If AI kills everyone, how will it do it?”