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Futarchy

TagLast edit: 2 Mar 2021 18:32 UTC by Yoav Ravid

Futarchy is a proposed government system in which decisions are made based on betting markets. It was originally proposed by Robin Hanson, who gave the motto “Vote Values, But Bet Beliefs”.

A futarchic government holds an election to determine what metrics to optimize; for example, a ballot might allow citizens to vote on the following options:

And so on.

A futarchy then sets up betting markets for the effectiveness of various policies. The policies with the best estimated effectiveness get implemented. The consequences are then observed, so bets about the implemented policies can pay out.

Related Pages: Prediction Markets, Government, Law and Legal systems, Voting Theory, Politics

Com­plete Class: Con­se­quen­tial­ist Foundations

abramdemski11 Jul 2018 1:57 UTC
39 points
34 comments13 min readLW link

Futarchy, Xrisks, and near misses

Stuart_Armstrong2 Jun 2017 8:02 UTC
10 points
10 comments1 min readLW link

Futarchy Fix

abramdemski30 May 2017 5:46 UTC
6 points
0 comments9 min readLW link

You Can Do Futarchy Yourself

Tetraspace Grouping14 Jun 2020 0:16 UTC
50 points
3 comments5 min readLW link

Crash prob­lems for to­tal futarchy

Stuart_Armstrong15 May 2013 10:41 UTC
10 points
16 comments1 min readLW link

Try­ing to bet­ter un­der­stand futarchy

Pavitra16 Jun 2011 5:20 UTC
8 points
5 comments1 min readLW link

[Link] Con­crete steps are be­ing taken to­wards futarchy

AspiringRationalist14 Jun 2013 0:21 UTC
6 points
4 comments1 min readLW link

Pre­dic­tion Mar­kets are Con­founded—Im­pli­ca­tions for the fea­si­bil­ity of Futarchy

Anders_H26 Jan 2015 22:39 UTC
28 points
43 comments5 min readLW link

His­toc­racy: Open, Effec­tive Group De­ci­sion-Mak­ing With Weighted Voting

HonoreDB17 Jan 2012 22:35 UTC
19 points
63 comments5 min readLW link

[Link] Small-game fal­la­cies: a Prob­lem for Pre­dic­tion Markets

Antisuji28 May 2015 3:32 UTC
15 points
13 comments1 min readLW link
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