[Question] Do bond yield curve inversions really indicate there is likely to be a recession?

I’ve seen some recent commentary that the bond yield curve indicates there is likely to be a recession in the next year.

For example, from the New York fed:
https://​www.newyorkfed.org/​…/​r…/​capital_markets/​Prob_Rec.pdf

and commentary:

https://​​www.newyorkfed.org/​​medialibrary/​​media/​​research/​​capital_markets/​​Prob_Rec.pdf
https://​www.wsj.com/​…/​government-bond-market-measure-says-r…

I’m not sure how much stock to put into this, or for that matter what actions I should take if I expected there would be a recession in the next year.

Two part question:

  • How much confidence should I have in the yield curve inversion signal that a recession would happen by July 1st, 2020?

  • If I expected there would be a recession, what actions make sense to take as a personal investor? Or even more generally?