14 months ago, Paul Christiano and AI Impacts both published forceful and well-received take-downs of many arguments for fast (discontinuous) takeoff. I haven’t seen any rebuttals that are written by established researchers, longer than comments, or otherwise convincing. The longer there is no response, the less weight I put on the outside view that proponents of fast takeoff may be right.
Where are the rebuttals? Did I miss them? Is the debate decided? Did nobody have time or motivation to write something? Is the topic too hard to explain?
Why rebuttals would be useful:
-Give the community a sense of the extent of expert disagreement to form outside views.
-Prioritization in AI policy, and to a lesser extent safety, depends on the likelihood of discontinuous progress. We may have more leverage in such cases, but this could be overwhelmed if the probability is low.
-Motivate more people to work on MIRI’s research which seems more important to solve early if there is fast takeoff.