[Question] Any rebuttals of Christiano and AI Impacts on takeoff speeds?

14 months ago, Paul Chris­ti­ano and AI Im­pacts both pub­lished force­ful and well-re­ceived take-downs of many ar­gu­ments for fast (dis­con­tin­u­ous) take­off. I haven’t seen any re­but­tals that are writ­ten by es­tab­lished re­searchers, longer than com­ments, or oth­er­wise con­vinc­ing. The longer there is no re­sponse, the less weight I put on the out­side view that pro­po­nents of fast take­off may be right.

Where are the re­but­tals? Did I miss them? Is the de­bate de­cided? Did no­body have time or mo­ti­va­tion to write some­thing? Is the topic too hard to ex­plain?

Why re­but­tals would be use­ful:

-Give the com­mu­nity a sense of the ex­tent of ex­pert dis­agree­ment to form out­side views.

-Pri­ori­ti­za­tion in AI policy, and to a lesser ex­tent safety, de­pends on the like­li­hood of dis­con­tin­u­ous progress. We may have more lev­er­age in such cases, but this could be over­whelmed if the prob­a­bil­ity is low.

-Mo­ti­vate more peo­ple to work on MIRI’s re­search which seems more im­por­tant to solve early if there is fast take­off.

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