[Question] What do you do when you find out you have inconsistent probabilities?

I’ve recently been reading about a rationalist blogger who converted to Catholicism. She may have assigned subjective probabilities like:

Then she may have introspected and come up with:

We can calculate:

Abbreviating Objective Morality by “OM”, and “God” by “G”, this state of affairs is inconsistent, because we intuitively see that:

To resolve it, she could either increase her subjective probability of there being a God

or she could reduce her probability of there being some kind of objective morality

She could also reconsider P(God|Objective Morality) or P(Objective Morality|God).


Anyways, I find myself very confused by this state of affairs. Is this a solved question? Is there a purely principled way of resolving this which only takes into account the 4 numbers P(OM), P(G), P(OM|G) and P(G|OM)? Is there a standard way of using some kind of metaprobabilities?

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