[Question] What do you do when you find out you have inconsistent probabilities?

I’ve re­cently been read­ing about a ra­tio­nal­ist blog­ger who con­verted to Catholi­cism. She may have as­signed sub­jec­tive prob­a­bil­ities like:

Then she may have in­tro­spected and come up with:

We can calcu­late:

Ab­bre­vi­at­ing Ob­jec­tive Mo­ral­ity by “OM”, and “God” by “G”, this state of af­fairs is in­con­sis­tent, be­cause we in­tu­itively see that:

To re­solve it, she could ei­ther in­crease her sub­jec­tive prob­a­bil­ity of there be­ing a God

or she could re­duce her prob­a­bil­ity of there be­ing some kind of ob­jec­tive morality

She could also re­con­sider P(God|Ob­jec­tive Mo­ral­ity) or P(Ob­jec­tive Mo­ral­ity|God).


Any­ways, I find my­self very con­fused by this state of af­fairs. Is this a solved ques­tion? Is there a purely prin­ci­pled way of re­solv­ing this which only takes into ac­count the 4 num­bers P(OM), P(G), P(OM|G) and P(G|OM)? Is there a stan­dard way of us­ing some kind of metaprob­a­bil­ities?