There may be a difference between “No God” and “Not God”. P(¬G) includes every other possibility − 2 gods, 3, 0, aliens creating humans, this is a simulation, everything we can think of and more. For this reason, some suggest odds over priors (and using Bayes rule appropriately) because the sum of probabilities we consider need not be one—we may determine of the possibilities we are considering that one is not likely to be true, in place of determining what is true. (For example, if we are considering the possibility that deck of cards someone else is using for a poker game is ordinary, or has 4 extra aces, we may acquire enough evidence, that the second possibility has an order of magnitude more probability. There might not be 8 aces, but we may be very confident that either the deck is not ordinary, or someone is cheating (possibly the person who is shuffling the deck).)
Also, if you ever use Bayes rule, and say “that can’t be right because of X”, keep going. Are there more givens you’re missing?
There may be a difference between “No God” and “Not God”. P(¬G) includes every other possibility − 2 gods, 3, 0, aliens creating humans, this is a simulation, everything we can think of and more. For this reason, some suggest odds over priors (and using Bayes rule appropriately) because the sum of probabilities we consider need not be one—we may determine of the possibilities we are considering that one is not likely to be true, in place of determining what is true. (For example, if we are considering the possibility that deck of cards someone else is using for a poker game is ordinary, or has 4 extra aces, we may acquire enough evidence, that the second possibility has an order of magnitude more probability. There might not be 8 aces, but we may be very confident that either the deck is not ordinary, or someone is cheating (possibly the person who is shuffling the deck).)
Also, if you ever use Bayes rule, and say “that can’t be right because of X”, keep going. Are there more givens you’re missing?