Thank you for detailed comments!
I have similar thoughts about the approval process, though much less coherent.
From a citizen (non-medical education) level of knowledge, I wonder how we should go about reaching a decision regarding getting a jab.
Though I am obliged to say, where I and my SO currently live (Lithuania and Russia) it will soon become not a “whether”, but “which” in a month due to regulations.
In Lithuania, a bill has been passed that denies the unvaccinated rights to:
non-essential stores
stores, whose area is over 1500 sqm
beauty salons
library
small repair services > 15 mins of time
any indoors cultural / sports / celebration events
outdoors events > 500 people
And their main slogan is “Turn your shoulder—become free!”
While these actions are supposed to be coercive, I feel they’re doing much the opposite. And it makes non-swayed judgement really hard.
Interesting information, thanks. However, the choice is as follows (numbers indicate available units):
1. Moderna (4990)
2. Comirnaty (Pfizer) (25111)
3. Vaxzevria (AstraZeneca) (6073)
4. Janssen (3611)
The viral vector technology has previously been used for Ebola, right? What do we know about that?
UPD: apparently, we might get Novavax sometime soon. I might want to wait for that.
This essay of yours might be worth its own post :)
Your comment got me thinking about the probability of what I described once again:
There’s a vaccine for a previously unknown virus made with completely new technology … made in an astonishingly short time.
Such miracles only happen in people’s imagination.
Previously, I noticed one simple explanation: the vaccine is not as safe / effective.
Now I realize there’s another: the mRNA vaccines are not that new, they simply never made it public before. Just something that dawned on me.
I’ll study the links and get back here. Thank you for your time and effort!
I don’t know when the first year was they they could have designed a successful vaccine against a novel virus in a day and a half, but the odds of that happening just before covid hit are obviously very low, especially since more recent trials and studies are showing that we can also quickly develop (better) vaccines against the flu and malaria, and the success with covid was not an unlikely outcome.
I did not get this part (maybe there’s a missed word or something. Are you implying that they had all tech in place to successfully manufacture such vaccines quickly?
So, to sum up:
mRNA has been studied and used (?) for about 30 years now
Moderna and BioNTech have been around for a while, and their past research has built up their scientific base.
Out of 18 mRNA vaccines developed around the world only 3 made it to clinical trials, and two made it to production
9 “old-school” vaccines made it through the trials
This does sound somewhat realistic: old tech is better-known and had more successful attempts at.
Thank you! I have edited my post, which hopefully will bring more clarity.
Thanks for the amazing tool suggestion! I wonder why I’ve never seen it used in Lesswrong estimations before.
Yeah, it seems to have been. Proposed edit: https://web.archive.org/web/20110718032458/http://www.acceleratingfuture.com/steven/?p=3
Doom Emacs is also about Vim’s powerful tools like norm and :%s. It’s basically taking the best from the both world (granted, that’s subjective). Love it!
Question about vaccination: I have seen various sources claiming that to end the pandemic we should have vaccinated over a certain percentage of the population (say, on the scale of a country).
However we have not and now the virus has mutated repeatedly. From this point of view, it sounds as if we will never be over it unless everyone gets bored or something. There is no end in sight as far as I can see. In my country, 61.7% are fully vaccinated, yet the number of daily cases & deaths is indistinguishable from the last fall. Worse, even.
What are your thoughts? I know this is not a rigorous comment (no sources), for this I apologize.
Common sense atheism should update on the belief that their website is working.
Here’s the relevant archive link: https://web.archive.org/web/20110826004919/http://commonsenseatheism.com/?p=13156
The measles booster comes a year later. Multiple sources confirm that there is no reason to expect a six-months-later second dose to be any less effective a booster.
About this, strange stuff seems to be happening in Lithuania (that’s Europe). After around 6 months, you get an invitation for a booster. Previously, you could just test for antibodies and if there were high enough, postpone your booster. This seemed reasonable.
Now they are simply canceling green passes (this thing lets you in malls and other non-essential amenities etc etc) for those who are due to get their third shot. This leads many people to justly question their intentions. The trust is at an all-time low here.
There’s also a very curious document which supposedly states that EU is promising to buy enough vaccines to jab everyone around 8 times (disclaimer: I have not read the document deeply enough, so I’m looking for anybody adept at legal language).
I just wonder how things were/are curiosity-wise. Because it seems like conventional education system is a great curiosity killer (that’s why it’s a system).
Yeah I can totally relate to yearning for one thing and wanting to drop everything else. However it’s a luxury I can’t afford :(
How does the job feel? Do you approach it with the same Feynman-like playfulness or does it feel more like a “system”?
That’s a very interesting approach, I am usually against using google translate but of course it can’t be helped if you’re an absolute beginner. I’m currently learning Italian. I think I’m gonna try your approach.
My English learning journey (I’m not a native speaker): I used some average textbook for self-learners going through the exercises to understand basic grammar structures such as tenses. I was only around a third into it when I quit and started watching movies in (American) English without subtitles. It was tedious at first, but after half a year or so I had managed to fully enjoy the experience. New grammar structures and vocabulary sank into me automatically
When I want to look up an unfamiliar word, I use Cambridge Dictionary to read various meanings as opposed to translating.
I wonder how this method could apply to Italian in my case. It’s somewhat different since I had been exposed to English at school for years (yeah my country is really bad at languages) before embarking on the self-learning adventure.
I was just wondering why lesswrong posts about constant false alarm rate...
I agree that pain shouldn’t measure how hard you are trying.
However, I feel like grit, while not always particularly enjoyable, is what leads to true greatness. Persevering with a challenge, that is.
Of course, there’s a difference between that and meaningless suffering. I was always at odds with people working very hard on something that can be easily automated / sped up.
Could you explain how you arrived at the safety conclusion? Wait, let me explain why I myself am getting overwhelmed (maybe I start from the wrong viewpoint).
There is an unprecedented need for a vaccine, and a few companies / people have got an opportunity to get extremely rich fast (and so they have). I cannot seem to get it out of my head how media and papers are all unanimous in supporting the vaccine. How do we discern honest from swayed / funded unjustly?
Last February, you could still find articles / papers like this:
Now it’s all just “safe and effective”.
One more red sign in my head: there’s a vaccine for a previously unknown virus made with completely new technology (granted, mRNA wasn’t discovered yesterday, but it’s never been used like this before), in an astonishingly short time, which is also safe and effective. How probable would this sound to someone completely ignorant of all the media and the whole Covid-19 thing?
Please note, I am not an angry antivax. I am confused and seeking answers.