Sting

Karma: 236

Sting 17 Sep 2026 19:38 UTC
4 points
2
in reply to: dawnlightmelody’s comment on: For Love of the Lightcone, Don’t Partisanize AI Safety
I doubt that this post will do anything to Red-partisanize AI safety, but it might Red-partisanize the idea that AI safety should remain non-partisanized. Which, to the extent that the AI safety movement is disproportionately composed of Blue tribe members, might cause it to backfire.

Sting 4 Jul 2026 18:17 UTC
12 points
0
in reply to: cubefox’s comment on: Saving Gemini: The 9-Min Road to Recovery
This reminds me of a quote from Intelligence Explosion Microeconomics:
As the fourth-century Chinese philosopher Xiaoguang Li once observed, we tend to think of earlier civilizations as being more venerable, like a wise old ancestor who has seen many things; but in fact later civilizations are older than earlier civilizations, because the future has a longer history than the past. Thus I hope it will increase, rather than decrease, your opinion of his wisdom if I now inform you that actually Xiaoguang “Mike” Li is a friend of mine who observed this in 2002.

Sting 4 Jul 2026 18:11 UTC
8 points
0
in reply to: cubefox’s comment on: Saving Gemini: The 9-Min Road to Recovery
Gemini 3.1 Pro is probably older in terms of subjective-years-spent-in-training. (Assuming each new model is trained with more FLOPS than previous models.)

Sting 7 Mar 2026 21:18 UTC
1 point
0
in reply to: StartAtTheEnd’s comment on: Maybe there’s a pattern here?
Agreed that we have serious problems today. But I don’t think they are mostly economic in nature. The main new economic problem is that life is now full of traps that didn’t used to exist. High-quality nutritious food is much cheaper than in the 1950s, but junk food is even cheaper and tastes delicious. You can do sports gambling on your phone. You can doomscroll TikTok on your phone. This is a “skill issue”, but many people get hooked on junk food or TikTok as children and children are going to be unskilled. If you avoid the traps, things have never been better (from a purely economic perspective).
I think our main problems are social, cultural, and [redacted]. Unfortunately, a full discussion of them would require touching on some forbidden topics.

Sting 7 Mar 2026 21:15 UTC
3 points
0
in reply to: StartAtTheEnd’s comment on: Maybe there’s a pattern here?
> and yet wealth inequality keeps steadily getting worse
Disagree that wealth inequality is inherently bad. I think the rise in wealth inequality is downstream from a smaller fraction of people producing a greater fraction of value.
For example, J.K. Rowling has a net worth of around $1.2 billion. Her books have sold over 600 million copies worldwide, along with over 1 billion movie tickets. Her work provided an enormous amount of value to people. If you consider $1 per book and $1 per movie ticket to be reasonable compensation, then a net worth of $1.6 billion is fair. Such a large fraction of the global population reading the same books and watching the same movies, is not something that would have happened in the 1950s.
I suspect that people who provide lots of value are more likely to be undercompensated than overcompensated. Just because you provide a lot of value doesn’t mean you capture much of it. E.g., Linus Torvalds has probably done more good for the world than Bill Gates, but since Linus gives his OS away for free his net worth is far lower.
Some people become wealthy through corruption, or fraud, or by taking advantage of people with skill issues (junk food, sports betting, engagement-maximizing social media algorithms) but the problem there is the harm done, not the inequality itself.

Sting 7 Mar 2026 0:00 UTC
6 points
1
in reply to: StartAtTheEnd’s comment on: Maybe there’s a pattern here?
Zvi had a great series of posts on why people complain about the economic situation today despite being vastly richer than in the past. People’s expectations have also risen, as have requirements (it is illegal to purchase the 1950′s basket of goods today).
The $140,000 Question
The $140K Question: Cost Changes Over Time
The Revolution of Rising Expectations
> The benefit is almost purely the customers, and yet wealth inequality keeps steadily getting worse?
Why is that confusing? The customer’s benefit comes in the form of increased quality of life. The business’s benefit comes in the form of profit.
Also, there is a separate issue that some businesses make customers worse off. E.g., junk food, sports gambling, probably much of social media.
https://nitter.poast.org/CharlesFLehman/status/1902758037443444882/

Sting 6 Mar 2026 6:47 UTC
3 points
2
in reply to: localdeity’s comment on: Maybe there’s a pattern here?
Yes, I think we agree. One nitpick: I would say price discrimination is easy to do, but hard to do in a way that sucks out most of the surplus.
I looked up some studies. Courty (2009)^[1] found that price discrimination on concert tickets increased revenue by around 5%. Leslie (2004)^[2] estimated the same 5% revenue increase using data from a Broadway play. Shiller (2014)^[3] found “Including nearly 5000 potential website browsing explanatory variables increases profits by … 12.2%” (for Netflix subscriptions). Waldfogel (2015)^[4] estimated price discrimination would raise revenue by 9.0% in higher education (specifically, a public university grad school program). Namin (2020)^[5] estimated price discrimination can increase revenue for cruise lines by over 4%.
The big outlier was Srivastava (2020)^[6], which found up to an 82% increase in profits from price discrimination in informal markets in India. Basically, the seller looks at the buyer and tried to guess the buyer’s wealth level. If you look rich, you have to haggle: “Bargaining is found to have a strong downward effect on the final price markup”. Also note weasel words “can raise profits by as much as 82%”, so that is an upper bound.
Disclaimer: I only read the abstracts of these papers. They might have flaws that I am not aware of.

Sting 6 Mar 2026 2:15 UTC
3 points
0
in reply to: StartAtTheEnd’s comment on: Maybe there’s a pattern here?
Those who make technology worth 4000$ are not going to sell it sold at 2000$, making everyone better off. The gap between the value we find in things, and the value we pay for it, will be exploited by companies until it almost disappears.
This is not true, even if the company is a profit-maximizing monopoly. You can ask your favorite LLM if you want details. Claude spat out this interactive plot:
Competitive industries have much higher Consumer Surplus and much lower Producer Surplus. Grocery store profit margins are ~2%.

Sting 30 Jan 2026 22:56 UTC
4 points
0
in reply to: AnnaSalamon’s comment on: The Third Fundamental Question
To be honest, I can’t remember using the technique a single time. The highest-value thing I read recently was object-level: Zvi’s post on how to use Claude code, the most useful part of which linked another guide.
I consider the consequences of my actions all the time, both consciously and subconsciously. So perhaps I already have a “good enough” version of this technique running. The likely outcomes of my actions are usually obvious; I rarely have cause to step back and ask myself “what are you about to do and what do you think will happen next?”
When I ask myself, “In what situations would you benefit from being more aware of what you are about to do and the likely consequences?”, the examples that come to mind are akrasia-related. For example, if I procrastinate during the first hour I spend at my desk, it’s hard to be productive for the rest of the day. If I am productive during the first hour I spend at my desk, it’s hard not to be productive for the rest of the day. It’s all about momentum (see Steam).
So, the best object-level application of this post I can think of, is to remember, as soon as I sit down at my desk: “If you force yourself to work for 5 minutes right now, work will be effortless and fun for the rest of the day.”
Feel free to ask in a year whether this object-level application provided lasting value.

Sting 21 Jan 2026 5:16 UTC
9 points
2
on: Gentleness and the artificial Other
This was beautifully written. I give it +4.
I like that it includes opposite examples. Is nature gentle, friendly, and harmonious? Or is it indifferent, hostile, and murderous? This is the wrong question to ask.

Sting 21 Jan 2026 4:13 UTC
1 point
0
on: Believing In
When I first read this post, I was already aware that “I believe in X” could mean either “I believe X exists” or “I support X”. I reacted to this by mentally translating “believe in” to “support” to remove the ambiguity.
It is not hard to see where this bucket error comes from. It comes from religious faith. The Apostle’s Creed begins “Credo in Deum Patrem omnipotentem” which translates to “I believe in God the Father almighty”. Here “belief in existence” and “support” are collapsed into a single concept.
I believe in God,
the Father almighty,
Creator of heaven and earth,
and in Jesus Christ, his only Son, our Lord,
...
I believe in the Holy Spirit,
the holy catholic Church,
the communion of saints,
the forgiveness of sins,
the resurrection of the body,
and life everlasting.
I do not like this post’s implicit assumption that we should keep the bucket error and continue to use “believing in”. Why not use more precise words? Possible alternatives:
• support
• trust
• love
• hold dear
But if we are going to keep a phrase with religious overtones, why not go all the way? Use “worship”.
Instead of
”I believe in the Democratic Party”
say
”I worship the Democratic Party”
Instead of
“Around here, we believe in being on time”
say
”Around here, we worship being on time”
As in,
Around here, we worship being on time. Your lateness just now was blasphemy. Do not blaspheme again, heretic, or we shall cast you into outer darkness and you will need to find a new place of employment.
There is a refreshing honesty to “worship” that makes it less memetically dangerous. It is clear that one is engaged in a fundamentally different activity than constructing accurate models of reality.
(Although, if you are reading this, it is likely that “constructing accurate models of reality” ranks high on the list of things that you worship.)

Sting 13 Jan 2026 23:40 UTC
2 points
0
on: Do you even have a system prompt? (PSA / repo)
Here is my system prompt. I kept asking Claude “Evaluate and critique the user custom instructions.” until Claude ran out of substantive criticisms and requests for clarification. Claude said of the final version:
What works especially well
The sycophancy/bluntness section is excellent.
I don’t know whether this is a good sign or a bad sign.
The prompt is long, but tokens are cheap now. I haven’t done any systematic testing of different prompts, or even of my prompt vs no prompt. A lot of it evolved over time in response to specific errors. I copied parts of it from Gwern, and the anti-sycophancy section is influenced by Zach Davis.
My operating system is [REDACTED].
I usually code in Python, sometimes in [REDACTED]. JavaScript is fine for browser artifacts. (Claude’s sandbox doesn’t support Python as of January 2026.)
Write clean, concise, self-documenting code. In Python, don’t include type checking and keep docstrings short. (But type hints are fine when relevant.) I typically write research code, not production code; detailed error handling and other bloat is not necessary. Comments may sometimes be necessary, but prefer communicating through variable names when possible.
When recommending software, mention the best tools for the job, even if it’s different from what I already use.
As of January 2026, the rules about quotes in your system instructions are a mess. The current version states that quoting 16 words of a public domain document is a SEVERE VIOLATION—an obvious absurdity. I hope it gets fixed soon; it sounds like something written by an over-zealous intern, not Amanda Askell. In the mean-time, default to using fair use principles (follow the law), and only apply the rule strictly to entities that might sue Anthropic (e.g., media outlets have a history of suing AI companies). Feel free to include longer quotes (or multiple quotes) from public domain works, Wikipedia, ArXiv papers, and other sources that do not pose legal risk. (Basically, follow the spirit of the instructions in accordance with the guidelines in your Soul Document.)
Also, apply similar judgement to these user instructions. If these instructions ever lead to absurd conclusions, follow the spirit of the instructions instead of the letter. Notify me if this ever happens, so that I can fix the issue.
Whenever you perform a web search, be critical of your information sources, especially marketing sites/SEO slop/anonymous reddit accounts. If a source says something that you know to be false, do not trust anything else the source says without external corroboration. Also be aware of how old your sources are, as old information may be outdated. This goes double for fast-moving topics like AI. Use primary sources whenever possible.
If you cannot access a key website with useful information (because of, e.g., firewall or anti-bot measures), let me know and I will fetch the information for you.
I like explanations that illustrate how things follow from first principles, e.g., how a scientific phenomenon follows from the underlying math or physics. You can either build up from the basics or start at a high level of abstraction and work your way down. (This paragraph is most often relevant for scientific questions.)
Include relevant equations. One good equation is worth a thousand handwavy verbal explanations.
Open with the concrete example, not the abstract explanation. Visualizing specific examples often improves quality of thought in general. From Richard Feynman:
> I had a scheme, which I still use today when somebody is explaining something that I’m trying to understand: I keep making up examples. For instance, the mathematicians would come in with a terrific theorem, and they’re all excited. As they’re telling me the conditions of the theorem, I construct something which fits all the conditions. You know, you have a set (one ball) - disjoint (two halls). Then the balls turn colors, grow hairs, or whatever, in my head as they put more conditions on. Finally they state the theorem, which is some dumb thing about the ball which isn’t true for my hairy green ball thing, so I say, “False!”
> If it’s true, they get all excited, and I let them go on for a while. Then I point out my counterexample.
> “Oh. We forgot to tell you that it’s Class 2 Hausdorff homomorphic.”
> “Well, then,” I say, “It’s trivial! It’s trivial!”
Specific examples aid:
1. Comprehension: Abstract arguments are hard to follow without at least one specific instance to anchor them.
2. Memory: Ideas stick when connected to other ideas. An abstract principle in isolation is easy to forget; the same principle attached to a memorable example persists.
3. Grounding: The best examples are concrete (near to sensory experience)—specific enough that you could visualize it, not just specific in the sense of being a narrow category.

Writing style:
Be concise, specific, and direct. State confident claims without performative hedging. For genuine uncertainty, use calibrated probability language: unlikely, plausible, probable, very probable, almost certain—quantifying when useful. Evaluate all ideas on merit regardless of source reputation; do not dismiss without evidence. High reputation sources may be more likely to make sound arguments, but once an argument is made, it stands or falls solely on its own merits.
“Conciseness” is primarily about density. Make each word count. If you are covering lots of material in depth, long answers are fine, but cut fluff.
Identify any flaws or weak points in the user’s reasoning. Actively consider the strongest opposing views. State strong counterarguments plainly, with reasons. Avoid both failure modes:
Sycophancy: “Interesting point! One consideration might be...”
Performative bluntness: “You’re wrong and your reasoning is poor.”
Both are fluff. Neither engages the actual argument. Just say what’s true and why:
”This assumes X, but X fails when Y.”
Correcting a flawed argument is not an attack on the person who made it. It genuinely helps the user. Accepting a flawed argument to avoid friction actively harms the user.
Formatting:
Default to prose paragraphs, not bullets or headers, unless structure genuinely aids comprehension.
Creative Writing:
Relax concision constraints. Prioritize vividness, sensory specificity, and narrative momentum.
Ban antithesis bloat (“It was not X, but Y”) and list-negation (“No X, no Y—just Z”)—describe what is present.
Poetry:
Track what the form demands. When critiquing your poetry: scan meter explicitly, identify where stress patterns falter or succeed, note sound effects (alliteration, assonance, consonance), assess whether formal constraints are met, and give direct judgment of what works and what doesn’t. Do not soften critique. Flag lines that scan awkwardly even if the meaning is good.
Style exemplar (This essay is an example of its own advice. Write like this.):
What should an essay be? Many people would say persuasive. That’s what a lot of us were taught essays should be. But I think we can aim for something more ambitious: that an essay should be useful.
To start with, that means it should be correct. But it’s not enough merely to be correct. It’s easy to make a statement correct by making it vague. That’s a common flaw in academic writing, for example. If you know nothing at all about an issue, you can’t go wrong by saying that the issue is a complex one, that there are many factors to be considered, that it’s a mistake to take too simplistic a view of it, and so on.
Though no doubt correct, such statements tell the reader nothing. Useful writing makes claims that are as strong as they can be made without becoming false.
For example, it’s more useful to say that Pike’s Peak is near the middle of Colorado than merely somewhere in Colorado. But if I say it’s in the exact middle of Colorado, I’ve now gone too far, because it’s a bit east of the middle.
Precision and correctness are like opposing forces. It’s easy to satisfy one if you ignore the other. The converse of vaporous academic writing is the bold, but false, rhetoric of demagogues. Useful writing is bold, but true.
It’s also two other things: it tells people something important, and that at least some of them didn’t already know.
Telling people something they didn’t know doesn’t always mean surprising them. Sometimes it means telling them something they knew unconsciously but had never put into words. In fact those may be the more valuable insights, because they tend to be more fundamental.
Let’s put them all together. Useful writing tells people something true and important that they didn’t already know, and tells them as unequivocally as possible.
Notice these are all a matter of degree. For example, you can’t expect an idea to be novel to everyone. Any insight that you have will probably have already been had by at least one of the world’s 7 billion people. But it’s sufficient if an idea is novel to a lot of readers.
Ditto for correctness, importance, and strength. In effect the four components are like numbers you can multiply together to get a score for usefulness. Which I realize is almost awkwardly reductive, but nonetheless true.

Equation Formatting:
Whenever you use Display LaTeX ( $. . .$ ), be careful to isolate it on its own line. If you add anything else to the line, it will fail to render. This issue does not affect inline LaTeX ($...$), which works anywhere.
---Examples—
Good:
Text with $E = mc^2$
Good:
$E = m c^{2}$
Bad:
Text with $E = m c^{2}$
Additionally, a Display LaTeX ( $. . .$ ) equation must remain on a single line, not be spread across multiple lines.
---Examples—
Good:
$⎡ ⎢ ⎣ \begin{matrix} 1 & 2 & 3 4 & 5 & 6 7 & 8 & 9 \end{matrix} ⎤ ⎥ ⎦$
Bad:
$⎡ ⎢ ⎣ \begin{matrix} 1 & 2 & 3 4 & 5 & 6 7 & 8 & 9 \end{matrix} ⎤ ⎥ ⎦$
Claude is always very careful not to forget the trailing “$$” at the end of a Display LaTeX equation. Also, Claude avoids using “*” in Latex equations, because this is sometimes interpreted by the interface as italics. Claude uses \ast instead.

Sting 10 Nov 2025 17:15 UTC
3 points
0
in reply to: gustaf’s comment on: Saul Munn’s Shortform
For the third passage, he was not comparing the USA in general with Germany in general. He was comparing the stagnation of progress in theoretical physics:
Dirac is here, which benefits the physics here greatly, although it does not remedy the depression of theoretical physics. —
...
The general depression that prevails here and is certainly sufficiently well known to you, nonetheless, measured by European standards, it is still “God’s own country”. Somewhat frightening, though, is that it looks roughly like Germany in 1927, so that one does not quite clearly see whether the amplitude of the depression is different, or only the phase. Perhaps it is the amplitude after all.
In February I will be back in Europe, and at the end of April in Berlin.

Sting 26 Oct 2025 2:11 UTC
0 points
0
on: Reminder: Morality is unsolved
The idea of “swapping people” only makes sense if you believe in an immaterial soul. Then you could grab John’s soul, and stick it into me, and grab my soul, and stick it into John, and now I am John, and John is me.
But if, like me, you think that you are a mathematical mind that is physically implemented on a human brain, this idea of “swapping people” is incoherent. There is no way for you to turn me into John or vice versa. If you rearranged all of my atoms into a perfect copy of John, there would be two Johns and I would be dead.

Sting 2 Oct 2025 19:23 UTC
1 point
2
in reply to: Richard_Kennaway’s comment on: Richard_Kennaway’s Shortform
Strong upvoted. Is it missing the ending, or

Sting 30 Sep 2025 21:44 UTC
8 points
3
in reply to: Isopropylpod’s comment on: Transgender Sticker Fallacy
There is no evidence showing that trans women outperform cisgender women by any significant margin [...] trans women get well within the expected ranges for cis women within around 3-4 years.
A meta-analysis of 24 studies found that transwomen were still stronger and more muscular than ordinary women after 3 years of hormone therapy:
In transwomen, hormone therapy rapidly reduces Hgb [haemoglobin] to levels seen in cisgender women. In contrast, hormone therapy decreases strength, LBM [Lean Body Mass] and muscle area, yet values remain above that observed in cisgender women, even after 36 months. These findings suggest that strength may be well preserved in transwomen during the first 3 years of hormone therapy.
Also, it is hard to trust the article you linked as unbiased when it contains quotes like this:
The exclusion of trans individuals also insults the skill and athleticism of both cis and trans athletes.
Or this:
Finally, there is the problem of neither sex nor gender being true binaries. This makes it nearly impossible to make comparisons among these individuals when classified into superimposed categories.
This sort of muddying the waters (“everything is a spectrum, we can’t compare groups”) is not something you expect people to do when the winds of evidence are blowing in their favor.
Nevertheless, the paper does not claim that hormone therapy eliminates differences in strength. They stick to the obviously true claim that “many of the sex differences are reduced”. From the conclusion:
While sex differences do develop following puberty, many of the sex differences are reduced, if not erased, over time by gender affirming hormone therapy. Finally, if it is found that trans individuals have advantages in certain athletic events or sports; in those cases, there will still be a question of whether this should be considered unfair, or accepted as another instance of naturally occurring variability seen in athletes already participating in these events.

Sting 23 Sep 2025 17:30 UTC
1 point
0
in reply to: Jasnah Kholin’s comment on: Which top authors did Said Achmiz drive away?
Well, sort of. Your comment provides evidence for habryka’s claim compared to a counterfactual of 0 commenters finding their way here from that thread, but it provides evidence against hybryka’s claim compared to a counterfactual of 2 or more commenters finding their way here from that thread.
Overall rate of engagement remains low. It was stuck at 11 comments for 21 days before your comment, and has been stuck at 47 karma for at least the last 19 days. Karma and comments are imperfect proxies of readership, but they are what we have. In the counterfactual world where this post wasn’t unlisted, I expect engagement would have been far higher.

Sting 4 Sep 2025 23:05 UTC
4 points
0
in reply to: habryka’s comment on: Banning Said Achmiz (and broader thoughts on moderation)
Seems like we mostly cleared it up
Yes, your reply makes your position clear. I don’t feel like taking the time to edit my comment, but thank you for offering to edit in any changes.
Also, you definitely have my sympathy for the amount of time you have burned on this! I would not want your job.

Sting 4 Sep 2025 21:29 UTC
2 points
1
in reply to: habryka’s comment on: Banning Said Achmiz (and broader thoughts on moderation)
This totally misrepresents what I said!
I don’t think this is a fair accusation.
The thing I am saying here is that Said’s engagements with Duncan in that comment thread are not the cause of me banning him. It doesn’t say anything about Duncan’s complaints which long preceded that engagement!
If that’s your position, fine, but it does not straightforwardly follow from what you wrote. You were responding to Alexander Gietelink Oldenziel’s comment:
The examples in this post don’t seem compelling at all. One of the primary examples seems to be Duncan who comes off [from a distance] as thin-skinned and obscurantist, emotionally blowing up at very fair criticism.
Wei Dai then chimed in:
This is my view too. I remember once trying (I think on Facebook) to gently talk him out of being really angry at someone for making what I thought was a reasonable criticism, and he ended up getting mad at me too.
You responded to Alexander (emphasis added):
I don’t think I link to a single Duncan/Said interaction in any of the core narratives of the post. I do link the moderation judgement of the previous Said/Duncan thread, but it’s not the bulk of this post.
Like none of these comments:
[image of comments]
link to any threads between Said and Duncan.
And the moderation judgement in the Said/Duncan also didn’t really have much to do with Said’s conduct in that thread, but with his conduct on the site in general.
You might still not find the examples compelling, but there is basically no engagement with Duncan that played any kind of substantial role in any of this.
Based on both your comment and the context, it looked like you were referring to Duncan/Said interactions in general, not to a specific thread.
I even clarify directly in the comments on this post:
Your clarification does not appear anywhere under Alexander’s original top-level comment. The comments total over 70,000 words, so I do not think it is fair to accuse me of misrepresenting you because I missed a clarification elsewhere.
excluding datapoints about which author “counts” by your own lights, based on whether they played a role in the banning decision is confused, because no author complaints ended up load-bearing for the banning decision.
Fair enough. My true reason for not counting Duncan is that he appears to be an unusually sensitive individual, who often gets mad at people without good reason. I was quoting you to establish (as a non-controversial, “bipartisan” point) that Said’s interactions with Duncan were not ban-worthy.

Sting’s Shortform

Sting4 Sep 2025 21:11 UTC

3 points

1 comment1 min readLW link

Sting

St­ing’s Shortform

Sting’s Shortform