Right, yes, I’m not suggesting the iterated coding activity can or should include ‘build an actual full-blown superhuman AGI’ as an iterated step.
rwallace
Karma: 1,798
Are you advocating as option A, ‘deduce a full design by armchair thought before implementing anything’? The success probability of that isn’t 1%. It’s zero, to as many decimal places as makes no difference.
My argument is not that AI is the same activity as writing a compiler or a search engine or an accounts system, but that it is not an easier activity, so techniques that we know don’t work for other kinds of software – like trying to deduce everything by armchair thought, verify after-the-fact the correctness of an arbitrarily inscrutable blob, or create the end product by throwing lots of computing power at a brute force search procedure – will not work for AI, either.
Design, Implement and Verify
This used to be an interesting site for discussing rationality. It was bad enough when certain parties started spamming the discussion channel with woo-woo about the machine Rapture, but now we have a post openly advocating terrorism, and instead of being downvoted to oblivion, it becomes one of the most highly upvoted discussion posts, with a string of approving comments?
I think I’ll stick to hanging out on sites where the standard of rationality is a little better. Ciao, folks.
Example: Most people would save a young child instead of an old person if forced to choose, and it is not not just because the baby has more years left, part of the reason is because it seems unfair for the young child to die sooner than the old person.
As far as I’m concerned it is just because the baby has more years left. If I had to choose between a healthy old person with several expected years of happy and productive life left, versus a child who was terminally ill and going to die in a year regardless, I’d save the old person. It is unfair that an innocent person should ever have to die, and unfairness is not diminished merely by afflicting everyone equally.
That would be cheap and simple, but wouldn’t give a meaningful answer for high-cost bugs, which don’t manifest in such small projects. Furthermore, with only eight people total, individual ability differences would overwhelmingly dominate all the other factors.
Sorry, I have long forgotten the relevant links.
We know that late detection is sometimes much more expensive, simply because depending on the domain, some bugs can do harm (letting bad data into the database, making your customers’ credit card numbers accessible to the Russian Mafia, delivering a satellite to the bottom of the Atlantic instead of into orbit) much more expensive than the cost of fixing the code itself. So it’s clear that on average, cost does increase with time of detection. But are those high-profile disasters part of a smooth graph, or is it a step function where the cost of fixing the code typically doesn’t increase very much, but once bugs slip past final QA all the way into production, there is suddenly the opportunity for expensive harm to be done?
In my experience, the truth is closer to the latter than the former, so that instead of constantly pushing for everything to be done as early as possible, we would be better off focusing our efforts on e.g. better automatic verification to make sure potentially costly bugs are caught no later than final QA.
But obviously there is no easy way to measure this, particularly since the profile varies greatly across domains.
Because you couldn’t. In the ancestral environment, there weren’t any scientific journals where you could look up the original research. The only sources of knowledge were what you personally saw and what somebody told you. In the latter case, the informant could be bullshitting, but saying so might make enemies, so the optimal strategy would be to profess belief in what people told you unless they were already declared enemies, but base your actions primarily on your own experience; which is roughly what people actually do.
That’s not many worlds, that’s quantum immortality. It’s true that the latter depends on the former (or would if there weren’t other big-world theories, cf. Tegmark), but one can subscribe to the former and still think the latter is just a form of confusion.
True. The usual reply to that is “we need to reward the creators of information the same way we reward the creators of physical objects,” and that was the position I had accepted until recently realizing, certainly we need to reward the creators of information, but not the same way—by the same kind of mechanism—that we reward the creators of physical objects. (Probably not by coincidence, I grew up during the time of shrink-wrapped software, and only re-examined my position on this matter after that time had passed.)
To take my own field as an example, as one author remarked, “software is a service industry under the persistent delusion that it is a manufacturing industry.” In truth, most software has always been paid for by people who had reason other than projected sale of licenses to want it to exist, but this was obscured for a couple of decades by shrinkwrap software, shipped on floppy disks or CDs, being the only part of the industry visible to the typical nonspecialist. But the age of shrinkwrap software is passing—outside entertainment, how often does the typical customer buy a program these days? - yet the industry is doing fine. We just don’t need copyright law the way we thought we did.
We can’t. We can only sensibly define them in the physical universe which is based on matter, with its limitations of “only in one place at a time” and “wears out with use” that make exclusive ownership necessary in the first place. If we ever find a way to transcend the limits of matter, we can happily discard the notion of property altogether.
I took the post to be asking for opinions sufficiently far outside the mainstream to be rarely discussed even here, and I haven’t seen a significant amount discussion of this one. Then again, that could be because I wasn’t particularly looking; I used to be of the opinion “intellectual property law has gone too far and needs to be cut back, but of course we can’t do away with it entirely,” and only recently looked more closely at the but of course part and realized it didn’t hold water. If this opinion is more common than I had given it credit for, great!
Sure. My answer is no, it does not.
Not only is intellectual property law in its current form destructive, but the entire concept of intellectual property is fundamentally wrong. Creating an X does not give the creator the right to point a gun at everyone else in the universe who tries to arrange matter under their control into something similar to X. In programming terminology, property law should use reference semantics, not value semantics. Of course it is true that society needs to reward people who do intellectual work, just as much as people who do physical work, but there are better justified and less harmful ways to accomplish this than intellectual property law.
Ill posed does not necessarily mean impossible. Most of the problems we deal with in real life are ill posed, but we still usually manage to come up with solutions that are good enough for the particular contexts at hand. What it does mean is that we shouldn’t expect the problem in question to be definitely solved once and for all. I’m not arguing against attempting to test rationality. I’m arguing against the position some posters have taken that there’s no point even trying to make progress on rationality until the problem of testing it has been definitely solved.
But doesn’t it seem that if you decompartmentalized with correct beliefs you should do way better?
Maybe; there are all sorts of caveats to that. But that aside, more directly on the question of tests:
Possibly in a testable way?
You still run into the problem that the outcome depends greatly on context and phrasing. There is the question with turning over cards to test a hypothesis, on which people’s performance dramatically improves when you rephrase it as an isomorphic question about social rules. There are the trolley questions and the specks versus torture question and the ninety-seven percent versus one hundred percent question, on which the right answer depends entirely on whether you treat it as a mathematical question that happens to be expressed in English syntax or a question about what you should do if you believed yourself to really be in that situation. There are questions about uncertain loss isomorphic to questions about uncertain gain where people nonetheless give different answers, which is irrational if considered as a material problem, but rational in the more likely and actual situation where the only thing at stake is social status, which sometimes does depend on how the question was phrased. Etc.
That’s why I called the testing problem ill posed; it’s not just that it’s hard to figure out the solution, it’s hard to see what would be the criteria of a good solution in the first place.
There are no small pauses in progress. Laws, and the movements that drive them, are not lightbulbs to be turned on and off at the flick of a switch. You can stop progress, but then it stays stopped. The Qeng Ho fleets, for example, once discontinued, did not set sail again twenty years later, or two hundred years later.
There also tend not to be narrow halts in progress. In practice, a serious attempt to shut down progress in AI, is going to shut down progress in computers in general, and they’re an important enabling technology for pretty nearly everything else.
If you think any group of people, no matter how smart and dedicated, can solve alignment in twenty years of armchair thought, that means you think the AI alignment problem is, on the scale of things, ridiculously easy.
I’m asking you to stop and think about that for a moment.
AI alignment is ridiculously easy.
Is that really something you actually believe? Do you actually think the evidence points that way?
Or do you just think your proposed way of doing things sounds more comfortable, and the figure of twenty years sounds comfortably far enough in the future that a deadline that far off does not feel pressing, but still sooner that it would be within your lifetime? These are understandable feelings, but unfortunately they don’t provide any information about the actual difficulty of the problem.
Modern crops are productive given massive inputs of high-tech industry and energy in the form of things like artificial fertilizers, pesticides, tractors. Deprived of these inputs, we won’t be able to feed ourselves, let alone have spare food to burn as fuel.
Actually no, the physics wasn’t the gating factor for nuclear energy. One scientist in the 1930s remarked that sure, nuclear fission would work in principle, but to get the enriched uranium, you would have to turn a whole country into an enrichment facility. He wasn’t that far wrong; the engineering resources and electrical energy the US put into the Manhattan project, were in the ballpark of what many countries could’ve mustered in total.
Maybe the Earth is about to be demolished to make room for a hyperspace bypass. Maybe there’s a short sequence of Latin words that summons Azathoth, and no way to know this until it’s too late because no other sequence of Latin words has any magical effect whatsoever. It’s always easy to postulate worlds in which we are dead no matter what we do, but not particularly useful; not only are those worlds unlikely, but by their very nature, planning what to do in those worlds is pointless. All we can usefully do is make plans for those worlds – hopefully a majority – in which there is a way forward.
I am arguing that it will never create an AGI with resources available to human civilization. Biological evolution took four billion years with a whole planet’s worth of resources, and that still underestimates the difficulty by an unknown but large factor, because it took many habitable planets to produce intelligence on just one; the lower bound on that factor is given by the absence of any sign of starfaring civilizations in our past light cone; the upper bound could be in millions of orders of magnitude, for all we know.
Well, sure. By the time you’ve got universal consent to peace on Earth, and the existence of a single vaccine that stops all possible diseases, you’ve already established that you’re living in the utopia section of the Matrix, so you can be pretty relaxed about the long-term future. Unfortunately, that doesn’t produce anything much in the way of useful policy guidance for those living in baseline reality.
Sure. Hopefully we all understand that the operative words in that sentence are small and simple.