Another part of the calculus here is that Brightline is faster than driving. Very roughly:
Wikipedia says it takes 3:25 and Google says driving takes 4:03. If we call it half an hour saved per long distance trip, that’s ~1.5 million hours saved.
Long distance trips were about 60% of the passenger miles in your model, so if we assume they were also 60% of the fatalities, that’s a statistical cost of $1.5 billion, or $1,000 per hour saved. (Minus some adjustment because cars also kill people, so we can call it $950 instead if we take the 20x number.) Compared to the $40/hr that a life seems to be valued at (assuming a fatality represents 40 years lost and we value the cost at $13.7 million).
...I didn’t actually generate an advance prediction, but if I had I think it would have been at least an order of magnitude lower.
By contrast: if we assume a fatality represents 40 years of life lost, and we value the cost at $13.7 million, that’s about $40/hr.
Can you elaborate less metaphorically? I’m not sure what coincidence you’re pointing at.