Danish math major
Oskar Mathiasen
Karma: 105
I don’t think the quoted problem has that structure.
And suppose that the existence of S tends to cause both (i) one-boxing tendencies and (ii) whether there’s money in the opaque box or not when decision-makers face Newcomb problems.
But now suppose that the pathway by which S causes there to be money in the opaque box or not is that another agent looks at S
So S causes one boxing tendencies, and the person putting money in the box looks only at S.
So it seems to be changing the problem to say that the predictor observes your brain/your decision procedure. When all they observe is S which, while causing “one boxing tendencies”, is not causally downstream of your decision theory.
Further if S where downstream of your decision procedure, then fdt one boxes whether or not the path from the decision procedure to the contents of the boxes routes through an agent. Undermining the criticism that fst has implausible discontinuities.
Cant you make the same argument you make in Schwarz procreation by using Parfits hitchhiker after you have reached the city? In which case i think its better to use that example, as it avoids the Heighns criticism.
In the case of implausible discontinuities i agree with Heighn that there is no subjunctive dependence.
Here is a quick diagram of the causation in the thought experiment as i understand it.
We have an outcome which is completely determined by your decision to one box/two box and the predictor decision of whether to but money in the one box.
The Predictor decides based on the presence of a lesion (or some other physical fact)
Your decision how many boxes to take is determined by your decision theory.
And your decision theory is partly determined by the Lesion and partly by other stuff.
Now (my understanding of) the claim is that there is no downstream path from your decision theory to the predictor. This means that applying the do operator on the decision theory node doesn’t change the distribution of the choices of the predictor.
Denmark culled all mink due to worries about a covid strain in mink. It has only recently (January 1 2023) become legal to farm mink in Denmark again.
logical inductors are actually defined by the logical induction criterion. The market bit is there to prove that it is possible to fulfill the criterion.
There is also the somewhat boring answer that probability can refer to anything which obeys the axioms of probability.
Note that coop is a consumer cooperative not an employee cooperative.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Consumers%27_co-operative
New report from Denmark called “Focusrapport about Covid-19 related hospitalizations during the Covid-19 pandemic”
https://www.ssi.dk/-/media/cdn/files/fokusrapport-om-covid-19-relaterede-hospitalsindlggelser-under-sars-cov-2-epidemien_06012022_1.pdf?la=daIt is sadly in danish, so i will give a translation of the main results section and some of the graphs.
Summary of main results:
Theme 1:
* The older a patient is, the greater the likelihood that he or she will have a covid-19- related hospitalization of 12 hours or more.
* The proportion of short hospital stays of less than 12 hours has been fairly stable in each age group in 2021 with a few fluctuations.
* The median duration of long hospital stays (≥12 hours) has decreased from 5.5 days in March 2020, to 4.4 days in February 2021 and 4.0 days in October 2021.
* (this one is added by me) The average duration of (long?) hospitalizations has decreased from 9.2 days in March 2020, to 7.8 days in February 2021 and 7.2 days in October 2021.Theme 2:
* Among covid-19-related admissions in the period 1 June 2020 − 18 December 2021, 82% were registered with a covid-19 diagnosis, 3% with a respiratory diagnosis or an observable covid-19 diagnosis and 15% with another diagnosis. In the month of December, December 1, 2021 to December 18, 2021, they were corresponding shares resp. 73%, 4% and 23%.
* For all age groups ≥40 years, at least 80% of the admissions were registered with a covid-19 diagnosis. For younger adults and children, the proportion was lower.
* For vaccinated, 75% of admissions were registered with a covid-19 diagnosis, while the proportion among the unvaccinated was 82% in 2021. The proportion of patients registered with a diagnosis incompatible with Covid among vaccinated and unvaccinated were respectively. 21% and 15%.
percent of covid hospitalizations which where longer then 12 hours (in red) vs shorter than 12 hours (in blue) by age group over time.
number of hospitalizations that are covid (top), airways or observation (middle), and other (bottom)
the above categories as a proportion of covid positive hospitalizations over time.And the above categories as percentage by age group (over june-december 2021)
By age and vaccination status (vaccinated is to the left) (there are no vaccinated at ages below 9 in the period)
A few thoughts:
It seems weird that the median time of a long stay is going down, but the percentage of short stays is stable
Updated numbers from today at: https://files.ssi.dk/covid19/omikron/statusrapport/rapport-omikronvarianten-10122021-ek56
Now with English translations.
Only significant change is that hospitalizations are up to 1.4% (18 cases).
There should be daily updates found her https://www.ssi.dk/aktuelt/nyheder/2021
click the newest one and click “læs rapporten her” (read the report here). Which takes you to a page where you can download the rapport for that day
Repost from wordpress blog
status rapport from Denmark
Key numbers: they give numbers of cases by day, and also give cases of omicron as a percentage of other cases.
Of 785 cases in Danish citizens, 76.31% of omicron cases where in double vaxed, 7.13% in triple vaxed, compared to 73.69% double (probably also including triple) vaxed for covid in general. 14.14% unvaxed for omicron 22.93% for general (over the last 7 days)
Rate of hospitalization is 1.15% for omicron (9 cases), and 1.85 in general.
Everything is probably confounded by age and region. (omicron is less prevalent in children and over 65)
sources: https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/aa41b29149f24e20a4007a0c4e13db1d/page/page_5/ https://files.ssi.dk/covid19/omikron/statusrapport/rapport-omikronvarianten-09122021-ke43
Todays cumulative omicron cases is 398
Repost from my wordpress comments:
Danish seroprevalance (from https://www.ssi.dk/aktuelt/nyheder/2021/markant-stigning-i-den-fjerde-nationale-praevalensundersoegelse) seems to have been about 50% above commulative cases (from https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/denmark/) by may 2020.
Commulative omicron cases in Denmark per SSI https://www.ssi.dk/aktuelt/nyheder/2021
dec 3: 18 omicron cases
dec 5: 183 cases
dec 6: 261 cases
Oddly this looks linear (80 cases per day), but that is almost certainly random.
The fact that the 2 numbers are equal is not always true, it is randomly true on this day.
Yes.
I agree that the original post keeps going after removing differences in values because they don’t remove differences in marginal value, which is what matters.
I am providing an example where properly removing the differences in marginal value results in no trade.
You are using a nonstandard definition of goods. Would you equally object to a market with only blueberries, apples and bananas on the basis that there is only one good available (fruits)?
The example world can be modified easily to use any utility function of the form a·red points + b·yellow points + c·blue points.
Yes.
The comment was meant as a proof by example that you can have no trade in a world with comparative advantages, if everyone has the same marginal value of all products the result is no trade.
Diminishing marginal returns are indeed enough to make marginal values different between people.
People could trade making each others numbers bigger, it’s just that it will never be beneficial for both.
Letting people increase others numbers by decreasing their own number doesn’t change the results
Example world without trade.
Every person gets at birth assigned an array of 3 integers a blue number, a yellow number and a red number. Every person has 3 attributes: the speed they can increase a red number (by spending that amount of time counting out loud), the speed they can increase a blue number, and the speed they can increase a yellow number. They can increase their own numbers or anyone elses. (Note we are not assuming everyone has the same amount of red, blue and yellow points at birth or that they are all equally fast at producing them). Everyone knows that there are no ways to become better at increasing your numbers.
Everyone has the following utility function: red points + blue points + yellow points.
This world has no trade! But it does have comparative advantages!
Two of the removed features are removed incompletely.
Differerences in preferences. What is important for trade is the marginal preference. So to remove this motivation to trade one mus assume the marginal value (both intrinsic and instrumental) to be equal for everyone for all goods, which i think can only happen in some very weird cases (eg all gods have no instrumental value and utility is a linear combination of the products).
The difference in peoples productive capacity (which doesn’t by itself result in trade (it does when assuming diminishing marginal value to personal consumption of the same product)) is not captured completely by their human capital, it is their all their capital. So normal capital differences could cause trade in any situation where human capital could.
Trade can also be used to facilitate coordination, cooperation and information.
Trade can allow parallelization of work (a kind of cooperation), and can in general let you play with time (eg work to create a product with the intention of trading it for something later (when you have better information about what you want))
Does you intuition still hold in the [Least Convenient Possible World](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/neQ7eXuaXpiYw7SBy/the-least-convenient-possible-world) where costs of creating new beings is 0?
At least the big Brittish schools this doesn’t clearly hold based on the experience of people i know. Granted the evidence i have is consistent with them only caring about silver or better.
Also my impression for the Russian schools was that not speaking Russian was a problem they were happy to work around (which certainly isn’t true everywhere)
Then you violate the accurate beliefs condition. (If the world is infact a random mixture in proportion which their beliefs track correctly, then fdt will do better when averaging over the mixture)