Morpheus

Karma: 1,521

Morpheus 7 May 2026 22:27 UTC
2 points
0
in reply to: Seth Herd’s comment on: Motivated reasoning, confirmation bias, and AI risk theory
I don’t have a great personal sense. I think I read somewhere, but don’t remember exactly where that it is ~20% (could have been Tetlocks book). I guess the few times I did calibration training with people is compatible with that number or an even lower number.

Morpheus 7 May 2026 21:22 UTC
2 points
0
in reply to: Seth Herd’s comment on: Motivated reasoning, confirmation bias, and AI risk theory

I’d be really curious to hear more about this from people who run calibration exercises. I’ve heard of dramatic overconfidence but not underconfidence. I’m sure it exists.

I did Metaculus predictions for a few months and learned that I was in the category of people who need to increase their confidence slightly. I might also just have overcorrected after reading superforcasting. Generally it is hard to be calibrated on really small probabilities or to give 99% confidence intervals for quantities you know little about, so if you do those with calibration training exercises you will almost definitely come up short unless you already know this is hard in advance. Just don’t use probabilities below 1% if you are just getting started with that calibration stuff etc. because reading comprehension and other mistakes get you.

Morpheus 7 May 2026 20:29 UTC
2 points
0
in reply to: Morpheus’s comment on: Why no new notations since 1960?
To be fair this is pretty soon after juggling started to get popular with hobbyists and not just professionals in the 1970s. So low-hanging fruit that got plucked as soon as some nerds got sufficiently invested in the hobby?

Morpheus 26 Apr 2026 15:45 UTC
5 points
1
on: Did anyone here used to hate exercise and learned to not hate it?
Walking and biking to places you need to get to sounds like you are already picking the low hanging fruit. I don’t hate sports, but I find most sports (including all you mentioned) boring. I like most sports that involve chasing some ball (like badminton, tennis, squash). I’d maybe try badminton or something like that in your case and find someone you know to play with you or join some club if you are open to that. I assume you would already know if you like any of those, but you didn’t explicitly mention any of that so seemed worth asking. If you don’t like the social aspect have you considered ball juggling? The skill gain can be fun (managing to do more and more catches with more objects is easy to quantify progress) and equipment is cheap and I am sure there are tutorials online. For the same reason I like bouldering because it includes puzzles. (Not sure if I recommend bouldering as a start if you are not already somewhat fit)

Morpheus 23 Apr 2026 22:31 UTC
4 points
0
in reply to: Kaarel’s comment on: kh’s Shortform
I really appreciated Beren’s post to figure out what I think about this for myself. I think another intuition where I and Beren differ is that it is just fine if 1% of enhanced humans you make is a psychopath or whatever (10% is a bit high though. I don’t expect it to be that high unless you allow the data for you GWAS to have a high % of people cheating on tests or misreporting data (which is a valid concern)). The other enhanced humans can deal with the psychopaths! The human psychopaths would like to solve alignment too and are incentivised to cooperate with the other humans. This is not true with AIs because they are so easily changed and copied. The one project that isn’t careful with their AI’s can then spoil it for everyone else when their Pythia overtakes the universe, while the safe projects work on interp and conceptual foundations. With even mildly superhuman AI (we have superhuman hacking now), you would have to be super paranoid that the AI didn’t poison it’s training data or did anything else mischievous. Meanwhile, as a thought experiment I would feel quite fine retiring to childcare and handing off the future to say ~10 clones of myself that have been enhanced in health and intelligence by ~2-4sd (clones would minimize difference from myself, multiple means less noise in the handover, assuming we did this through editing I could even edit different SNPs for every clone, so there is no consistent misalignment between them and me).

I do think some goal shift from intelligence enhancement is possible and we should be able to get some data on this already from looking at existing humans. One intuition I have is that if higher intelligence leads to weird things when it comes to goal misgeneralization, we should see more difference in value that start emerging in humans during puberty compared to in early childhood. I’d be curious if someone has compared this between twins (monozygous twins being more different typical puberty related emotions like parental defiance and their sexuality compared to their relation to anger?) or has checked for consistent trends in puberty being more weird in smarter people compared to early childhood development.

Morpheus 23 Apr 2026 18:08 UTC
4 points
0
in reply to: ChristianKl’s comment on: Why no new notations since 1960?
Rephrasing what you are saying to check if I am understanding: Conceptual progress has slowed down, because most research is bottlenecked on ontology. If we made progress on that, we would see more new notations. As an example you bring up the mental disorders, where people are more concerned about the politics of diagnosis, than understanding the underlying reason why “autism” is a thing (or how many distinct things are behind that label). I feel like the sequences actually are pretty great for the ontology stuff? Or at least I can’t think of anything better I’ve read. Like noticing confusion is a great skill with no skill ceiling in sight. The sequence on words taught me a bunch about semantics that seems like it is important for that type of stuff. I am pretty curious what is up with this Barry Smith guy now though, so if you have some specific reading recommendations from him and maybe you can even pitch what particular skill with regards to ontology you feel better at after reading him that would be great.

Morpheus 22 Apr 2026 22:13 UTC
35 points
8
on: Why no new notations since 1960?
The first example that came to my mind for a recent notation that has caught on in the field would be siteswaps in juggling. It was only invented in the 1980s. I am a juggler and can confirm that all the technical juggling nerds know what this is and it is used in crazy tricks. For example see 5551 below, which I heard was the first trick that was found through the notation:

Juggling lab is a software for rendering these.

EDIT: I probably misremembered with 5551, the Wikipedia article mentions 441.

Morpheus 21 Apr 2026 19:06 UTC
20 points
2
in reply to: Ben Pace’s comment on: Evil is bad, actually (Vassar and Olivia Schaefer)
For what it is worth, I met Michael Vassar on an after-party to an event when I was at Lighthaven in 2025. So I assume he is still allowed on the Lighthaven premises under some circumstances? If I had known that he is banned I would have let someone know. Pretty sure it was him because I recognized him from YouTube, and he was talking about dumb things like trying to convince Elon Musk to use the power with DOGE to keep printing money to disempower the US government. The only reason I actually stuck around was to calibrate and compare my impressions of Michael Vassar compared to what I read about him online. Mostly I was confused why people like talking with him, he didn’t seem very insightful nor manipulative to me at all, but to be fair he was already slightly intoxicated. Maybe I am too psychologically healthy, and also he didn’t want to get anything from me.

Morpheus 20 Apr 2026 11:03 UTC
4 points
2
in reply to: Morpheus’s comment on: The Mirror Test Is Complicated
Feel free to cut any other corners where you see fit. Posting video of the ants during the experiment (just with some phone-camera), seems valuable though.

Morpheus 20 Apr 2026 10:31 UTC
2 points
0
in reply to: XelaP’s comment on: The Mirror Test Is Complicated
Yes, that is fine! :)

Morpheus 18 Apr 2026 20:51 UTC
3 points
−1
in reply to: 1a3orn’s comment on: Wei Dai’s Shortform
There is still no firealarm for ASI. How things will work out is still uncertain. The AI talking to you is more like smoke than a firealarm in the firealarm analogy. It’s still hard to coordinate a pause around. But yeah past ChatGPT your chances are still higher than post GPT-2 or post AlphaGo. I don’t know where I read it but yeah I think I read somewhere from some people involved in Miri explicitly that they are not trying to make the wider public pay too much attention to AI which makes complete sense given how people end up doing stupid things in response to that (the founding of OpenAI etc.). So not making too much of a fuss at that time just seems correct.

Morpheus 17 Apr 2026 20:38 UTC
9 points
4
in reply to: testingthewaters’s comment on: testingthewaters’s Shortform
Rice’s theorem is about the worst case. If you are thinking about the worst case for example because the model explicitly optimizes to not be understood then yes that can be a problem. Rice’s theorem tells you that you should not pick the goal of being able to interpret any model even if someone explicitly aimed for training a model such that it will be hard for you to understand. If you have control over what data you train on, and you try to understand the model at different stages during training, and you stop training once you really don’t understand what is going on, then you should be in a better shape. Python is also Turing complete. But lots of python snippets people write are quite easy to understand. Programmers reason about the semantics of some code all the time. The more code and the less optimized for understanding the more difficult it gets though. In some ways LLM’s are pretty close to a random binary, so yeah mechanistic interpretability is in trouble.

Morpheus 17 Apr 2026 7:08 UTC
2 points
0
on: Reflections of a Wordcel
Congrats on making it! Good to link to your substack I would otherwise not have found your other posts! I was quite tempted to join your attempt once I realized it wasn’t an April fools joke. But I do not in fact currently have the time or energy to pull this off.

Morpheus 15 Apr 2026 20:55 UTC
39 points
7
on: The Mirror Test Is Complicated
You are telling me this unbelievable result with suspiciously high success rate with the ants hasn’t been reproduced in 10 years? This experiment shouldn’t even be this hard? If you are a bright high schooler or undergrad with a microscope, I am happy to pay you $100 if you end up reproducing this.

Morpheus 15 Apr 2026 8:14 UTC
2 points
0
in reply to: Sherrinford’s comment on: Some takes on UV & cancer
My best guess would be that the sun breaking down folate (Vitamin B9) would be more of a reproductive fitness disadvantage especially during pregnancy compared to the very few skin cancer cases late in life. I don’t have strong evidence either way though. Probably both effects are roughly within one order of magnitude? Also light skin could be faster selected for than dark skin since vitamin D is so important. As Carl Feynman notes, there could be other biochemistry stuff.

Morpheus 8 Apr 2026 14:02 UTC
6 points
0
on: My picture of the present in AI
Labor is only one input to algorithmic progress (compute for experiments is another), and algorithmic progress itself is only one component (though probably the majority, perhaps around 60% or 80%) of overall AI progress (scaling up training compute and spending more on data also contribute).
I notice I am confused about this algorithmic progress. Is this compatible with what Steven Byrnes wrote on LLM algorithmic progress? Does anyone here know? Or is there already something written up on how this conflicts with Steven’s picture. I was quite confused why there was so little discussion from people I would expect to know about that topic, to figure out what the consensus on this is. I find this somewhat cruxy for how confident to be that we are going to get to AGI soon, which is relevant for me, since currently I work on enabling genetic human enhancement. I guess if people believe discussing this in too much detail is exfohazardry, that would be good to know, so I can just look into it on my own.

Morpheus 8 Apr 2026 0:04 UTC
4 points
0
in reply to: Qube2’s comment on: The Practical Guide to Superbabies

that’s before we even consider IQ as only a reliable measure of a narrow construct—where is the reliable measure of creativity, practical judgment, personality, motivation and all the other social skills?

Let me know once you find a reliable measure of those constructs with enough DNA data attached to make a predictor :)

Importantly, there is limited evidence supporting almost all the claims, however well intentioned. That PGT-P improves real-world child health outcomes in a way that justifies its routine use is unproven, as is that it reliably predicts or increases intelligence in any practical or meaningful sense

What type of evidence would change your mind?

Morpheus 4 Apr 2026 10:13 UTC
2 points
0
on: Anatomy, diseases and aging damage
While I’m normally using a trackball as a mouse, two years ago I went to go co-working and used a normal mouse. I made a bad movement while using the mouse and afterwards my right hand hurt a bit. A few days later my hand was relatively okay, but my hand and arm were still more tense than before.
I asked multiple bodywork people to fix it, but while the arm got more relaxed the issue didn’t fully resolve. This week I decided to investigate how my right hand and left hand differ to find out what’s going on. I noticed that if I extend my right arm my right hand goes in the direction of the ulna side unless I add tension to keep it in place.
When palpating the ulna head from the dorsal side of my left hand I was touching the ulna head directly. When doing the same thing on the right side, there was something above the ulna head. I formed the hypothesis: “Maybe, the thing I’m palpating is out of place. How about I move it laterally?” I used my fingers to slowly push it laterally.
Afterwards, my right arm started relaxing. I fixed the problem that I produced two years ago in 10-15 seconds of action. I looked up the anatomy and deduced that I moved the tendon of the muscle extensor carpi ulnaris. The tendon is supposed to be lateral of the ulna head and not dorsal. This explains why my hand moved before when extending my arm. Part of extending the arm involves turning the ulna and as the ulna turns, the ulna head presses a bit in the dorsal direction and pushed on the tendon. As a result of pushing on the tendon the extensor carpi ulnaris contract resulting in the movement I observed.
Untreated, this issue might have resulted down the line in carpal tunnel syndrome or back pain down the line. Plausibly, it would have even produced those effects in the two years if I wouldn’t regularly do effective interventions to remove tension.
I noticed anatomy was another one of those areas where it wouldn’t even occur to me that I should probably learn the very basics of the subject, and perhaps I should just use some common sense and observation to make sense of things. For example, my doctor recommended that I get a tooth grinding guard (I used to have one as a teenager, that I stopped using after a while, and it didn’t fit anymore), but the only way they assessed whether I needed one was not based on my teeth, but the strength and tightness of my jaw muscle. I am pretty sure I don’t grind my teeth during the day (I can’t fully rule out yet that I do so during the night). Before I got an expensive guard, I decided to just set an hourly reminder to check what I am currently doing with my jaw. I noticed I do in fact tense up my jaw when I concentrate, but I seem to be doing so without having my teeth touch each other. Sadly the issue is symmetric, and looking at some jaw images online also didn’t give me obvious ideas what to do about it, but at least I won’t waste my time with a guard that I don’t actually need.

Morpheus 3 Apr 2026 11:02 UTC
2 points
0
in reply to: Morpheus’s comment on: Morpheus’s Shortform
Hedgehog thing got resolved. Downstream of the hedgehog gene being mentioned somewhere in the references of one paper I pasted into the chat and after gpt-4o searched for it once it must have influenced other chats.

Morpheus 3 Apr 2026 10:30 UTC
2 points
0
in reply to: Linch’s comment on: Linch’s Shortform
Yeah, the low extrinsic mortality is definitely something NMR have going for them that ant workers don’t (queens do since they don’t leave the nest usually). Indian jumping ants also compete for being queen like NMRs, but they forage and leave the nest. There are definitely academics that think in detail what differences in extrinsic mortality risk predict for life-span. When I just asked Claude on that it apparently is actually more complicated than lower extrinsic mortality=slower rate of senescence? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Similarly, I am not sure if the low oxygen environment is actually that great for NMR longevity. As ChristianKi mentions your theory is going to be more interesting if you can look across species what it would predict or what your evolutionary theory predicts regarding mechanistic/biochemistry and genetic stuff in NMRs. As ChristianKi, I would not call myself an expert, but I might be somewhere on the Pareto frontier of having looked into aging, eusocial animals and naked mole rats. Not sure about relevant experts. Maybe check the people who wrote the textbook on naked mole rats? You would need some generalist that would know enough about these senescence models and about particular biology of naked mole rats and this expert might just not exist in 1 person.