Information transmission is analogous to infectious disease transmission: information that sustains R0>1 spreads “virally” to significant fractions of the world; information with R0<1 has limited spread.
Any information that remains in circulation stays at R0=1[1], analogous to an endemic infectious disease[2]. This is an example of self-organised criticality, where the system as a whole tunes itself to the critical point without requiring external intervention.
For individual ideas: Small changes in the information (presentation or substance), or the information environment (social media or the social world), can change the R0 of a piece of information across this critical threshold of 1, and thus make the difference between “everybody knowing” and “nobody knowing” that information.
Thus, small changes in the presentation of an idea can change whether it is outside or inside the Overton window. But this is rare: most ideas have R0≪1 once outside their niche audiences.
For the overall information space: Adding up all pieces of information that thus became viral / ceased to be viral, and the small change in social media (algorithms or UI) or social world can tip the information space into different attractor spaces.
That “different attractor space” can mean changing the norms of conversations, as well as moving the Overton window as a whole. The overall information space is metastable.[3]
How do endemic infectious disease stay at an effective reproduction number of R0=1 (averaged over the long term)?
An endemic infectious disease likely started as a (perhaps local) epidemic with basic reproduction number R0>1, infecting a significant fraction of the (local) population, giving them some amount of immunity (and reducing the effective population of infection-naive individuals), reducing R0 to near 1.
Thereafter, human behaviour (e.g. acting more cautious when the community sees infections rising, and less cautious when infections seem to fade) cause the disease to fluctuate between R0>1 and R0<1, averaging over the long term to R0=1.
I technically should use the effective reproduction number Rt instead of the basic reproduction number R0. The difference is effective immunity: Rt=R0×(1−effective fraction of the population that is immune). ↩︎
To be precise:
Any piece of information in circulation, like any particular endemic infectious disease, is in the metastable state of “in circulation” or “endemicity”. The stable state is the piece of information ceasing to circulate, or the disease being eradicated.
A piece of information “going viral” is an information cascade.
The set of circulating information, like the set of endemic diseases, is self-organised critical.
The broader system (including policy inputs like social media algorithms or UI, and non-explicitly-controllable “policies” like norms and Overton window) is metastable. ↩︎↩︎
Information in circulation is self-organised critical. Small changes in environment can make large, discontinuous changes in the information space.
Related but distinct: Information cascades
Information transmission is analogous to infectious disease transmission: information that sustains R0>1 spreads “virally” to significant fractions of the world; information with R0<1 has limited spread.
Any information that remains in circulation stays at R0=1[1], analogous to an endemic infectious disease[2]. This is an example of self-organised criticality, where the system as a whole tunes itself to the critical point without requiring external intervention.
For individual ideas: Small changes in the information (presentation or substance), or the information environment (social media or the social world), can change the R0 of a piece of information across this critical threshold of 1, and thus make the difference between “everybody knowing” and “nobody knowing” that information.
Thus, small changes in the presentation of an idea can change whether it is outside or inside the Overton window. But this is rare: most ideas have R0≪1 once outside their niche audiences.
For the overall information space: Adding up all pieces of information that thus became viral / ceased to be viral, and the small change in social media (algorithms or UI) or social world can tip the information space into different attractor spaces.
That “different attractor space” can mean changing the norms of conversations, as well as moving the Overton window as a whole. The overall information space is metastable.[3]
Other examples of self-organised criticality
Eric Raymond has previously written an example, on just-in-time and efficiency pushing supply chains towards criticality.
For video-oriented readers, Veritasium has a great video on self-organised criticality.
When averaged over the long term. ↩︎
How do endemic infectious disease stay at an effective reproduction number of R0=1 (averaged over the long term)?
An endemic infectious disease likely started as a (perhaps local) epidemic with basic reproduction number R0>1, infecting a significant fraction of the (local) population, giving them some amount of immunity (and reducing the effective population of infection-naive individuals), reducing R0 to near 1.
Thereafter, human behaviour (e.g. acting more cautious when the community sees infections rising, and less cautious when infections seem to fade) cause the disease to fluctuate between R0>1 and R0<1, averaging over the long term to R0=1.
I technically should use the effective reproduction number Rt instead of the basic reproduction number R0. The difference is effective immunity: Rt=R0×(1−effective fraction of the population that is immune). ↩︎
To be precise:
Any piece of information in circulation, like any particular endemic infectious disease, is in the metastable state of “in circulation” or “endemicity”. The stable state is the piece of information ceasing to circulate, or the disease being eradicated.
A piece of information “going viral” is an information cascade.
The set of circulating information, like the set of endemic diseases, is self-organised critical.
The broader system (including policy inputs like social media algorithms or UI, and non-explicitly-controllable “policies” like norms and Overton window) is metastable. ↩︎ ↩︎