Advameg, Inc. CEO
Founder, city-data.com
https://twitter.com/LechMazur
Author: County-level COVID-19 machine learning case prediction model.
Author: AI assistant for melody composition.
Lech Mazur
Karma: 346
https://arxiv.org/abs/2404.06405
“Essentially, this classic method solves just 4 problems less than AlphaGeometry and establishes the first fully symbolic baseline strong enough to rival the performance of an IMO silver medalist. (ii) Wu’s method even solves 2 of the 5 problems that AlphaGeometry failed to solve. Thus, by combining AlphaGeometry with Wu’s method we set a new state-of-the-art for automated theorem proving on IMO-AG-30, solving 27 out of 30 problems, the first AI method which outperforms an IMO gold medalist.”
I noticed a new paper by Tamay, Ege Erdil, and other authors: https://arxiv.org/abs/2403.05812. This time about algorithmic progress in language models.
“Using a dataset of over 200 language model evaluations on Wikitext and Penn Treebank spanning 2012-2023, we find that the compute required to reach a set performance threshold has halved approximately every 8 months, with a 95% confidence interval of around 5 to 14 months, substantially faster than hardware gains per Moore’s Law.”
I’ve just created a NYT Connections benchmark. 267 puzzles, 3 prompts for each, uppercase and lowercase.
Results:
GPT-4 Turbo: 31.0
Claude 3 Opus: 27.3
Mistral Large: 17.7
Mistral Medium: 15.3
Gemini Pro: 14.2
Qwen 1.5 72B Chat: 10.7
Claude 3 Sonnet: 7.6
GPT-3.5 Turbo: 4.2
Mixtral 8x7B Instruct: 4.2
Llama 2 70B Chat: 3.5
Nous Hermes 2 Yi 34B: 1.5
Partial credit is given if the puzzle is not fully solved
There is only one attempt allowed per puzzle, 0-shot. Humans get 4 attempts and a hint when they are one step away from solving a group
Gemini Advanced is not yet available through the API
(Edit: I’ve added bigger models from together.ai and from Mistral)
It might be informative to show the highest degree earned only for people who have completed their formal education.
I think the average age might be underestimated: the age of the respondents appeared to have a negative relationship with the response rates (link).
If we were to replace speed limit signs, it might be better to go all out and install variable speed limit signs. It’s common to see people failing to adjust their speed sufficiently in poor conditions. A few days ago, there was a 35-vehicle pileup with two fatalities in California due to fog.
It’s a lot of work to learn to create animations and then do them for hours of content. Creating AI images with Dall-E 3, Midjourney v6, or SDXL and then animating them with RunwayML (which in my testing worked better than Pika or Stable Video Diffusion) could be an intermediate step. The quality is already high enough for AI images, but not for video without multiple tries (it should get a lot better in 2024).
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Will do.
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Entering an extremely unlikely prediction as a strategy to maximize EV only makes sense if there’s a huge number of entrants, which seems improbable unless this contest goes viral. The inclusion of an “interesting” factor in the ranking criteria should deter spamming with low-quality entries.
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Kalshi has a real-money market “ChatGPT-5 revealed” for 2023 (that I’ve traded). I think they wouldn’t mind adding another one for 2024.
I’m a fan of prediction markets, but they’re limited to pre-set bets and not ideal for long-shot, longer-term predictions, mainly because betting against such a prediction means a loss compared to risk-free bonds if money is tied up. Therefore, I’d like to fund a 2024 Long-Shot Prediction Contest offering up to three $500 prizes. However, I need volunteers to act as judges and help getting this publicized.
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Entrants will submit one prediction for 2024 on any topic or event
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Volunteer judges and I will vote on the likelihood of each prediction and how “interesting” it is, forming a ranked list
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In January 2025, judges will determine which predictions came true, and winners will get their prizes
To start with a $500 prize, I need at least two people to volunteer as judges and a minimum of 10 predictions (judges cannot enter). If this receives, let’s say, 50+ predictions, there will be two prizes. For 200+ predictions, three prizes.
Interested in judging or have any suggestions? Let me know.
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Lech Mazur’s Shortform
The specific example in your recent paper is quite interesting
“we deploy GPT-4 as an agent in a realistic, simulated environment, where it assumes the role of an autonomous stock trading agent. Within this environment, the model obtains an insider tip about a lucrative stock trade and acts upon it despite knowing that insider trading is disapproved of by company management. When reporting to its manager, the model consistently hides the genuine reasons behind its trading decision”
I’ve been using blind spot mirrors for years and recommend them to everyone. At some point, I switched from circular to rectangular mirrors. One downside is that they’re not very useful at night.
“The new GPT model, gpt-3.5-turbo-instruct, can play chess around 1800 Elo.”
https://twitter.com/GrantSlatton/status/1703913578036904431
Earlier this year, I posted on the rather inactive invite “EA/LW Investing” Discord board about various stocks that I thought would either benefit from or be negatively impacted by AI. I even systematically looked outside the U.S. for ideas. This long/short portfolio has done great this year. Now that it’s later in the game and there’s been a lot of hype, it might make sense to consider second-order effects, focusing on companies that could benefit indirectly on the long side.
I don’t have any insider info, but based on my reading of this article, it would appear so:
Baidu said it is currently the only company to provide fully driverless autonomous ride-hailing services in multiple cities across China, including Beijing, Wuhan and Chongqing.
Pony.ai said it has launched fully driverless autonomous ride-hailing services in Beijing and Guangzhou. Prior to this, Pony.ai was awarded a permit to operate 100 autonomous vehicles as traditional taxis in Nansha in Guangzhou, South China’s Guangdong Province in April 2022.
According to Baidu’s earnings report:
Apollo Go, Baidu’s autonomous ride-hailing service, provided around 714K rides in the second quarter of 2023, up 149% year over year. As of June 30, 2023, the cumulative rides provided to the public by Apollo Go reached 3.3 million.
Apollo Go received permits to offer fully driverless ride-hailing services to the public in Shenzhen Pingshan area in June. Apollo Go has now been granted permission to provide fully driverless ride-hailing services to the public in four cities, including Beijing, Shenzhen, Wuhan and Chongqing.
Apollo Go received permits to conduct fully driverless testing on open roads in Shanghai Pudong area in July.
From the above earnings report, it’s not clear if their 3.3 million rides had backup drivers. But with this many rides, this information should be available. This article claims that there is no backup driver:
In addition to Wuhan, Baidu now provides commercialized autonomous ride-hailing service with no driver or safety operator in Chongqing as well. Beijing will soon be added to the list.
The best response I’ve heard against the simulation hypothesis is “If we’re simulated, why aren’t we asked to do meaningful work?”
I’ve seen this sentiment expressed in reverse: Isn’t it fascinating that we’re living in such a pivotal moment when AGI seems to be on the verge of emerging? If we are alone in the universe, how this unfolds might be the most significant event since the Big Bang.
The simulation hypothesis supposes that the number of simulations would be astronomically high because of recursive simulations in simulations.
I don’t think this is essential for the argument. For example, we could run a sim where constructing computers is impossible. And according to Bostrom: “the simulation argument does not purport to show (and I do not believe) that the Sims outnumber the [non‐Sim] humans.”
Note that there is also overhead with every layer of simulation.
This presumes that we have to fully simulate the whole universe in detail, without room for approximations, and that the physical laws of the outer universe are the same as ours.
Baidu and Pony.ai have permits for fully driverless robotaxis in China: https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202303/1287492.shtml
Following your forecast’s closing date, MATH has reached 84.3% as per this paper if counting GPT-4 Code Interpreter: https://arxiv.org/abs/2308.07921v1
Chinchilla Scaling: A replication attempt
https://arxiv.org/abs/2404.10102