There was o1-pro in 2024 (December). It might be argued that this came with caveats due to its slowness and high cost but the difference in science questions (GPQA diamond), math (AIME 2024), competition code (Codeforces) compared to GPT-4 Turbo available at the time of his post was huge. The API wasn’t available in 2024 so we didn’t get any benchmarks besides these from OpenAI. In 2025, I tested o1-pro on NYT Connections and it also improved greatly 1, 2. I would probably also consider regular o1 a massive advancement. I don’t think the naming is what matters.
Many people corporations are trying to get AIs to be useful in California, fewer elsewhere, and I’m not convinced these will last.
Lately, I’ve been searching for potential shorting opportunities in the stock market among companies likely to suffer from AI-first competition. But it’s been tougher than I expected, as nearly every company fitting this description emphasizes their own AI products and AI transformations. Of course, for many of these companies, adapting won’t be quite that easy, but the commitment is clearly there.
“On the firm side, the Chamber of Commerce recorded a 73 percent annualized growth rate between 2023 and 2024.4 The Census BTOS survey shows a 78.4 percent annualized growth rate.5 Lastly, the American Bar Association reported a 38 percent annualized growth rate.6 Among individual-level surveys, Pew is the only source showing changes over time, with an annualized growth rate of 145 percent.7 Overall, these findings suggest that regardless of measurement differences in the levels adoption is rising very rapidly both at the individual and firm-level. ”—Measuring AI Uptake in the Workplace.
There was o1-pro in 2024 (December). It might be argued that this came with caveats due to its slowness and high cost but the difference in science questions (GPQA diamond), math (AIME 2024), competition code (Codeforces) compared to GPT-4 Turbo available at the time of his post was huge. The API wasn’t available in 2024 so we didn’t get any benchmarks besides these from OpenAI. In 2025, I tested o1-pro on NYT Connections and it also improved greatly 1, 2. I would probably also consider regular o1 a massive advancement. I don’t think the naming is what matters.
Lately, I’ve been searching for potential shorting opportunities in the stock market among companies likely to suffer from AI-first competition. But it’s been tougher than I expected, as nearly every company fitting this description emphasizes their own AI products and AI transformations. Of course, for many of these companies, adapting won’t be quite that easy, but the commitment is clearly there.
The data appears to support this:
“Adoption is deepening, too: The average number of use cases in production doubled between October 2023 and December 2024”—Bain Brief—Survey: Generative AI’s Uptake Is Unprecedented Despite Roadblocks.
“On the firm side, the Chamber of Commerce recorded a 73 percent annualized growth rate between 2023 and 2024.4 The Census BTOS survey shows a 78.4 percent annualized growth rate.5 Lastly, the American Bar Association reported a 38 percent annualized growth rate.6 Among individual-level surveys, Pew is the only source showing changes over time, with an annualized growth rate of 145 percent.7 Overall, these findings suggest that regardless of measurement differences in the levels adoption is rising very rapidly both at the individual and firm-level. ”—Measuring AI Uptake in the Workplace.