I think that on this particular spectrum, there are two locally stable attractors for closed social systems, though these attractors have different effects on the nonsocial environment, which can eventually push a system into the other attractor—this is approximately why there’s a large cyclical element to history.
So if a system isn’t clearly falling towards one attractor or the other, we can infer that it’s a frontier between other systems that are changing over time, and doesn’t self-govern.
I agree with this as stated, and think it’s consistent with the perspective I’ve articulated. The crux might be the extent to which ritualized conflict can and does deviate strongly from physical conflict, and relatedly whether legalizing (high-skill) duels would be proepistemic, albeit less so than reviving accessible courts of law, denormalizing ritualized legal boilerplate, and both legalizing bets and and normalizing them as the sort of thing you do if you’re serious.