New Omicron market on Polymarket:
https://polymarket.com/market/will-at-least-10pct-of-us-covid-19-cases-be-from-the-omicron-variant-on-january-1-2022
Annapurna(Annapurna)
Isn’t the most accurate source of information about the world Wikipedia?
And it works fairly well?
Anyways, great post. Watching the pitchforks come out against this whole ordeal is kind of comical, and I am excited to see how this Culture Battle over Musk-owned private Twitter plays out.
Not necessarily. You can have people believe that EMH works in US equities or US Treasuries but not say, US corps.
But most people in finance that I encountered throughout my career believed that EMH did not worked in any market.
Can you back this statement with data?
I’m seeing OTC markets at 50% confirmation by year end.
Can we get a snapshot of your portfolio?
I am interested in seeing what you hold / held to assess your risk adjusted return.
You started investing at a time where virtually all real assets beat their mean averages substantially. It was quite difficult to lose money investing in capital markets if you bought in January 2020 and held until today.
I studied and worked in finance and I don’t think I ever met someone who truly believed that the EMH was the absolute truth.
Is it possible to make this a standalone post? This is fantastic information.
One of my biggest gripes with this whole situation is that I believe that if authorities treated us like adults, the ambiguity (COVID doesn’t exist vs Very Serious People culture war) would be significantly mitigated.
What do I mean? I will use Ontario as a example.
On September 30th they came up with a modelling update.
https://files.ontario.ca/moh-fall-prep-modelling-deck-en-2020-09-30.pdf
Skipping to slide 9, I can infer very easily the following:
If we get to 150 COVID-19 patients hospitalized in the ICU, it starts becoming problematic for the health system in the province. If we get to 350, it starts breaking down the health system currently in place.
OK. Seems simple enough, where are we now?
https://covid-19.ontario.ca/data
As of today 77 people in the province are hospitalized in the ICU. I can also see that the number of COVID-19 ICU patients in August were between 11-30, in September from 12-35, and in October from 36-82.
Why is it that I had to do some decent Googling to find this information and come up with this conclusion? Why aren’t government officials and the media telling us this information daily, so we as a population are aware that we are halfway in ICU hospitalizations for this to start becoming a problem, and thus we can personally adjust our behavior accordingly?
Perhaps you are right: Creating a financial system for e-tulips was dumb in the first place.
But that discussion goes beyond the scope of this post. The fact of the matter is the financial system for crypto was created, and a major player crashed, and people not well versed in finance and crypto are somewhat interested in how it happened.
I agree with you, but that goes beyond the scope of my intention when writing this post. This post was meant to be as elementary as possible.
Great post as usual.
I just want to update you that my sister got the first jab in UAE on Tuesday. She’s in her late 20s and works from home. Literally last in any vaccine priority list.
She walked in first thing in the morning, walked out in less than 20 minutes. She will be back on the 26th for her second shot.
I just did a quick model of the 2016 elections, Clinton’s FiveThiryEight prediction model probability of winning versus Clinton’s percentage chance of winning based on betting odds for a range of dates. Here are the results:
August 18, 2016
Betting Market odds of winning: 81.82%
538 Prediction model odds of winning: 86.40%
September 26, 2016*
Betting Market odds of winning: 68.25%
538 Prediction model odds of winning: 54.80%
*This was debate night that year
October 25, 2016
Betting Market odds of winning: 84.62%
538 Prediction model odds of winning: 85.00%
November 1, 2016
Betting Market odds of winning: 73.33%
538 Prediction model odds of winning: 71.20%
That would be ideal. How does the world urge them?
Zvi you got one of your markets:
https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-fda-give-emergency-use-authorization-or-otherwise-approve-paxlovid-before-2022
I am excited to go to the US in July to get my shot.
Where I live, my age group will be eligible sometime in September. Might as well make a vacation out getting vaccinated.
I think it’s worth noting that the woman that died from a confirmed reinfection was 89 years old and suffering from a rare from of Leukemia.
For future reference, there is a website tracking COVID-19 reinfections. We are up to 24 confirmed reinfections.
By the way, your series of posts on the subject inspired me to write my own, focused more on those risks that those of us who recovered from COVID-19 face.
Thank you for the inspiration.
- 8 Nov 2020 7:27 UTC; 3 points) 's comment on Covid Covid Covid Covid Covid 10/29: All We Ever Talk About by (
As someone who is recovering from COVID-19, my interest on the subject has naturally moved towards long term consequences of the virus and reinfection risk.
I agree with you that there isn’t enough data out there to even get me interested that there are indeed long term consequences of the virus.
With regards to reinfections, at the moment I believe that the few reinfections reported are anomalies. The Very Serious People are focusing on this reinfection case study: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30764-7/fulltext
I also found a website that tracks reinfections: https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/08/covid-19-reinfection-tracker/
If you believe the website, there have been 23 reinfections confirmed out of 30+ million confirmed recoveries. I think the odds are pointing towards there being some sort of immunity.
“If there is a new world order—AI or something else changes everything—and we are not all dead, how do you prepare for that? Good question. What does such a world look like? Some such worlds you don’t have to prepare and it is fine. Others, it is very important that you start with capital. Keeping yourself healthy, cultivating good habits and remaining flexible and grounded are probably some good places to start.”
This is the question I am working on answering at the moment. It seems to me that it is universally agreed that AGI will happen in my lifetime (I am 34). My reasoning tells me that either AGI destroys us, or it fundamentally changes society, improving the average human standards of living substantially. This could very well mean that concepts such as law, government, capital markets, family systems,etc are significantly different than they are today.
Thinking of preparing for this new world is hard. Here’s a few things that I’ve began doing:
-
I am thinking less of life past 60, and shifting that energy more to the present moment.
-
Saving for retirement is slowly going down in the list of priorities. I have a very healthy asset base and I am not going to blow through it all, But I am also not going to maximize savings either. I will put some money away, but less than I would a few years ago. That % I am not saving for retirement will be going to the present moment.
-
Definitely not delaying bucket list items. If I can do it, I will do it.
-
The probability of having biological children has gone down. I have discussed this with my partner. We will not be ready for children for the next three years and she’s older than me, so the chances of biological children were already low. Furthermore adopting is still on the table and the probability of that is even higher now.
More importantly, these are all moving goal posts as developments happen.
-
Solid primer. It is hard to really simplify this subject but I think you did a decent job.