Annapurna(Annapurna)

Karma: 561

Annapurna 12 Oct 2020 15:06 UTC
1 point
on: Covid 10/8: October Surprise
Thank you for the weekly impartial analysis on this subject.

Annapurna 14 Oct 2020 3:23 UTC
4 points
on: Covid 10/1: The Long Haul
As someone who is recovering from COVID-19, my interest on the subject has naturally moved towards long term consequences of the virus and reinfection risk.
I agree with you that there isn’t enough data out there to even get me interested that there are indeed long term consequences of the virus.
With regards to reinfections, at the moment I believe that the few reinfections reported are anomalies. The Very Serious People are focusing on this reinfection case study: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30764-7/fulltext
I also found a website that tracks reinfections: https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/08/covid-19-reinfection-tracker/
If you believe the website, there have been 23 reinfections confirmed out of 30+ million confirmed recoveries. I think the odds are pointing towards there being some sort of immunity.

Annapurna 16 Oct 2020 2:52 UTC
1 point
on: Have the lockdowns been worth it?
I read this today and I found it a great resource. Not necessarily and answer to your question, but relevant.
We all know the success of New Zealand’s lock down. This case study explains in detail the steps New Zealand took at a national level to achieve its success.

Annapurna 18 Oct 2020 19:43 UTC
1 point
on: Covid 9/10: Vitamin D
Great post, and yes, I would be quite angry if the solution to the major hurdle my generation has faced is so supplement D3 daily.
Anecdotally, I’ve been supplementing D3 (between 4,000 to 10,000 IU per day, depending on the time of the year) since 2007, my first winter in the northern hemisphere. Having spent my entire life near the equator, moving to place where there was under 10 hours of sunlight per day for months was very miserable. D3 solved that misery. I’ve also recovered from COVID-19 in 12 days. I know I am just one person, but perhaps D3 helped in my recovery?

Annapurna 18 Oct 2020 19:57 UTC
4 points
on: Covid 10/15: Playtime is Over
I think it’s worth noting that the woman that died from a confirmed reinfection was 89 years old and suffering from a rare from of Leukemia.
For future reference, there is a website tracking COVID-19 reinfections. We are up to 24 confirmed reinfections.
By the way, your series of posts on the subject inspired me to write my own, focused more on those risks that those of us who recovered from COVID-19 face.
Thank you for the inspiration.
What links here?
- digital_carver's comment on Covid Covid Covid Covid Covid 10/29: All We Ever Talk About by Zvi (8 Nov 2020 7:27 UTC; 3 points)

Annapurna 19 Oct 2020 1:28 UTC
2 points
in reply to: sapphire’s comment on: PredictIt: Presidential Market is Increasingly Wrong
I believe Zvi is arguing that since the betting market hasn’t moved much, despite the perdiction odds of Trump winning deteriorating, there is no reason to believe the betting market will make any moves the closer we get to election. The closer we get to election night, assuming the discrepancy stays constant, the bigger the value on the Biden winning / Trump losing bet.

Annapurna 19 Oct 2020 2:59 UTC
5 points
on: PredictIt: Presidential Market is Increasingly Wrong
I just did a quick model of the 2016 elections, Clinton’s FiveThiryEight prediction model probability of winning versus Clinton’s percentage chance of winning based on betting odds for a range of dates. Here are the results:
August 18, 2016
Betting Market odds of winning: 81.82%
538 Prediction model odds of winning: 86.40%
September 26, 2016*
Betting Market odds of winning: 68.25%
538 Prediction model odds of winning: 54.80%
*This was debate night that year
October 25, 2016
Betting Market odds of winning: 84.62%
538 Prediction model odds of winning: 85.00%
November 1, 2016
Betting Market odds of winning: 73.33%
538 Prediction model odds of winning: 71.20%

Annapurna 25 Oct 2020 12:18 UTC
1 point
in reply to: MichaelStJules’s comment on: Bet On Biden
Yeah the +EV of this bet is marginal at best.

Annapurna 29 Oct 2020 17:52 UTC
6 points
on: Covid Covid Covid Covid Covid 10/29: All We Ever Talk About
One of my biggest gripes with this whole situation is that I believe that if authorities treated us like adults, the ambiguity (COVID doesn’t exist vs Very Serious People culture war) would be significantly mitigated.
What do I mean? I will use Ontario as a example.
On September 30th they came up with a modelling update.
https://files.ontario.ca/moh-fall-prep-modelling-deck-en-2020-09-30.pdf
Skipping to slide 9, I can infer very easily the following:
If we get to 150 COVID-19 patients hospitalized in the ICU, it starts becoming problematic for the health system in the province. If we get to 350, it starts breaking down the health system currently in place.
OK. Seems simple enough, where are we now?
https://covid-19.ontario.ca/data
As of today 77 people in the province are hospitalized in the ICU. I can also see that the number of COVID-19 ICU patients in August were between 11-30, in September from 12-35, and in October from 36-82.
Why is it that I had to do some decent Googling to find this information and come up with this conclusion? Why aren’t government officials and the media telling us this information daily, so we as a population are aware that we are halfway in ICU hospitalizations for this to start becoming a problem, and thus we can personally adjust our behavior accordingly?

Annapurna 2 Dec 2020 16:20 UTC
1 point
in reply to: Zolmeister’s comment on: Eth2 Staking explained as a Financial Instrument
Thank you for sharing. It’s great to see these services already commit to Eth2 staking.
I wouldn’t call this a secondary market though. This is more Coinbase becoming an intermediary between the customer and the Eth2 staking process.
A secondary market would be being able to buy and sell validator nodes. I do not think this would happen for two reasons:
1. Security. Every validator has a set of keys. A secondary market would imply the sharing of those keys.
2. Pricing. A secondary market would imply that the market value of validators (32 ETH) would fluctuate. Why would you sell a validator for lower than 32 ETH (and inversely buy a validator for more than 32 ETH) if the consensus protocol will always allow you to set up a node (and in phase 1.5 and beyond, exit a node) for 32 ETH?

Annapurna 4 Dec 2020 0:27 UTC
2 points
on: Covid 12/3: Land of Confusion
“In a remotely sane world, when Covid-19 tests are scarce, the first thing you do is give people antibody tests to confirm they need the vaccine, or at a minimum you could… ask people who have already had the Covid-19 not to get vaccinated? Even if insisting on this is not possible, of course, I would implore anyone who is immune to not try and get vaccinated until there is adequate supply. I don’t even know why they would want to.”

If I need a certificate of vaccination to travel, I will fight to get a vaccine. That is, after my entire family gets vaccinated first.

Annapurna 8 Dec 2020 15:21 UTC
1 point
in reply to: knite’s comment on: Eth2 Staking explained as a Financial Instrument
Currently growth of cryptocurrencies (Including ETH) is solely based on what the market thinks it’s valued (The most similar asset to compare it to would be gold). Sadly, the original vision of Satoshi Nakamoto has not come into fruition in any of the major cryptocurrencies.
The original utility of BTC was to become a medium of exchange. Today, the ‘utility’ of BTC is to primarily be used as a store of value.
The move of Ethereum from proof of work to proof of stake fundamentally changes the way we can derive its value. You can break it down the following way:
1. ETH can still be considered a store of value just like BTC
2. ETH can be staked to validate transactions and generate income
3. The development of Sharding, if successful, will allow Ethereum to become a medium of exchange, just like a major currency.

Annapurna 14 Dec 2020 19:17 UTC
1 point
on: Covid 12/10: Vaccine Approval Day in America
Zvi, what do you think of The United Arab Emirates opening up vaccination centers for anyone who wants to get the Sinopharm vaccine without phase 3 trial results being published?
https://www.gulftoday.ae/news/2020/12/10/covid-19-vaccine-shots-are-available-all-across-the-uae-find-out-your-nearest-vaccination-centre

Annapurna 15 Dec 2020 15:47 UTC
1 point
in reply to: Zvi’s comment on: Covid 12/10: Vaccine Approval Day in America
Zvi my sister lives in Dubai and she’s booking an appointment. Shes in her late 20s and doesn’t work in health care. So they are opening up appointments for regular folks. I also know that it is free for residents of the UAE, not sure if non-residents can get it.

Annapurna 25 Dec 2020 14:57 UTC
2 points
on: Covid 12/24: We’re F***ed, It’s Over
The first time, I made the mistake of not thinking hard enough early enough, or taking enough action. I also didn’t think through the implications, and didn’t do things like buying put options, even though it was obvious. This time, I want to not make those same mistakes. Let’s figure out what actually happens, then act upon it.
I acted in March, and I want to act again. As a former money manager, I know exactly how I would hedge this risk. My current issue is that I am not fully convinced that this issue will lead to weakness in capital markets.
Let’s say we use the US stock market as the hedging tool (an S&P 500 ETF like SPY or VOO). What would need to happen for it to fall a considerable amount (10%+)?
Additional restrictions across the board for a considerable amount of time without appropriate stimulus.
I don’t have the confidence to believe that the statement above will happen. We are about to enter an era of a democratic president, democratic majority in the house of representatives, and a potential tied senate. I am confident that more stimulus will pass if needed.
I am not sure how politically viable it is to enact additional restrictions in Europe / North America. I am sure some majors, governors, heads of state will enact additional restrictions, but I doubt it will be a coordinated effort. Furthermore, I am also not confident the populace will follow said restrictions.
So at the moment, I am convinced that this is serious, that it will probably cause significantly more loss of life in the next 6 months, but it won’t affect capital markets they way COVID-19 did back in March.
On a personal level, we are increasing our protections towards our elders. Here’s to hoping they get vaccinated by the end of February.

Annapurna 25 Dec 2020 16:49 UTC
3 points
in reply to: frcassarino’s comment on: Covid 12/24: We’re F***ed, It’s Over
Some possibilities:
- It didn’t originate in the UK. It’s already widespread in many countries, and the UK just happened to detect it.
- There’s actually a bunch of more infectious strains all over the place, but they just haven’t been detected. The higher infectiousness has already been impacting the covid case numbers for a while.
Looking at daily infections in Western countries, they came down significantly after restrictions were reimposed starting in September. Why is it that only in the UK (and Netherlands + a handful others) are daily infections rising at an alarming rate despite restrictions still in place?

Annapurna 25 Dec 2020 22:12 UTC
2 points
in reply to: frcassarino’s comment on: Covid 12/24: We’re F***ed, It’s Over
There’s a possibility that it didn’t originate in the UK, but it likely originated either in the UK or one of the other handful of countries that have seen significant spikes in infections despite no loosening of restrictions.

Annapurna 25 Dec 2020 22:46 UTC
1 point
in reply to: gwern’s comment on: What trade should we make if we’re all getting the new COVID strain?
Calls on the VIX are extremely expensive at the moment. So perhaps some of the risk related to the strain is already priced in.

Annapurna 26 Dec 2020 2:05 UTC
7 points
in reply to: Calley Wang’s comment on: Covid 12/24: We’re F***ed, It’s Over
Can you back this statement with data?

Annapurna 31 Dec 2020 2:46 UTC
1 point
on: Stock market hints for 2021 from past crashes
I don’t really understand your second graph. Didn’t the S&P 500 Total Return already recover all of its losses since the crash?