Try to think about this in terms of expected value. On your specific example, they do score more, but this is probabilistic thinking, so we want to think about it in terms of the long run trend.

Suppose we no longer know what the answer is, and you are genuinely ^{50}⁄_{50} on it being either A or B. This is what you truly believe, you don’t think there’s a chance in hell it’s C. If you sit there and ask yourself, “Maybe I should do a 50-25-25 split, just in case”, you’re going to immediately realize “Wait, that’s moronic. I’m throwing away 25% of my points on something I am *certain is wrong*. This is like betting on a 3-legged horse.”

Now let’s say you do a hundred of these questions, and most of your 50-50s come up correct-ish as one or the other. Your opponent consistently does 50-25-25s, and so they end up more wrong than you overall, because half the time the answer lands on one of their two 25s, not their single 50.

It’s not a game of being more correct, it’s a game of being less wrong.

Metcalfe’s (revised!) law states that the value of a communications network grows at about nlogn.

I frequently give my friends the advice that they should aim to become pretty good at 2 synergistic disciplines (CS and EE for me, for example), but I have wondered in the past why I don’t give them the advice to become okay at 4 or 5 synergistic disciplines instead.

It just struck me these ideas might be connected in some way, but I am having trouble figuring out exactly how.