In a previous post, I explain why the universe is probably not stable, but nevertheless unlikely to be intentionally destroyable even in the limit of advanced technology. Now let’s turn our attention to more prosaic risks where exotic physics merely destroys the Solar System, Earth, or just outperforms traditional nuclear weapons on some more local scale.
The basic logic behind any bomb is a self-sustaining chain reaction, in which a carrier
Two conditions make this run away. The reaction must release energy, so the products are more stable than the fuel; and each reaction must produce more carrier than it consumes, so that one reaction seeds the next. A practical third condition is that
False vacuum decay is the ultimate bomb:
Fission bombs run on the same principle at a more prosaic scale. Consider uranium-235. This has a half-life of 704 million years, and is stable enough that it is still found naturally on Earth, having survived for at least 4.5 billion years. But upon collision with a neutron the nucleus fissions, for example through the reaction
Only a handful of fissile nuclides have the properties required to support a nuclear chain reaction; most ordinary matter remains stubbornly unexploded when bombarded with neutrons. Thermonuclear weapons reach much higher yields by using a fission chain reaction to ignite fusion of deuterium and tritium. But fusion itself is not self-propagating. Each joule used to heat the fuel produces on the order of a hundred times as much energy through fusion, but this energy dissipates too quickly to ignite surrounding fuel. Larger thermonuclear weapons can be made, but only by adding distinct stages, each of which traps the energy produced by the previous one to ignite more fuel. [1]
So is a self-sustaining fusion burn possible at all? Under the gravitational compression at the core of a star, yes—that is what powers the Sun. Under ordinary terrestrial conditions, no. In Appendix 1 I review why, but hardened empiricists may take additional comfort in the fact that the Trinity test did not ignite the atmosphere, nor have any of the more than two thousand nuclear and thermonuclear bombs that have been detonated since.
Nuclear physics is by now well understood, and it offers no super-weapon beyond the ordinary scaling of a thermonuclear bomb—and certainly nothing that would run away to Earth- or star-busting scales. Are there more exotic options?
Nuclei are probably, but not definitely, stable within the Standard Model
With the exception of gravity, all known physical phenomena—including all of atomic, nuclear, and particle physics—are described by the Standard Model. If we want to understand whether an exotic chain reaction
The Standard Model conserves baryon number: the number of quarks minus the number of antiquarks in a system never changes. Quarks never appear in isolation, but instead form into triplets in larger particles:
Three quarks form a baryon, baryon number
One quark and one antiquark form a meson, baryon number
Three antiquarks form an antibaryon, baryon number
The proton, made of two up quarks and a down quark, is the lightest baryon in the Standard Model and so is stable.
[2]
The neutron also has baryon number 1, but it is slightly heavier than the proton, and a free one decays in about 15 minutes,
With baryon number fixed, all matter can do is rearrange its baryons into a lower-energy configuration. For a nucleus, that configuration is set by a balance of two forces: the residual strong force binds protons and neutrons together, while the electrostatic force pushes the protons apart. In addition, the Pauli exclusion principle prevents any two protons or neutrons from occupying the same quantum state. This means that, energetically, it’s favorable to have similar numbers of protons and neutrons to avoid needing to fill up higher energy states. For any given number of nucleons, there is an optimal mix of protons and neutrons and therefore a most stable state.
But are ordinary nuclei really the most stable form of baryonic matter? Two alternative options have been proposed:
Up-down quark matter: In this phase, up and down quarks are no longer confined within nucleons. For baryon number
it is clear this state is less stable than ordinary nuclei, but it is conceivable that larger collections of quark matter are absolutely stable (Holdom et al. (2018)). Such quark matter would be positively charged and behave similarly to ordinary nuclei, just much larger.Strange quark matter: In this phase, the up and down quarks are joined by strange quarks (Bodmer (1971); Witten (1984)). Unlike up-down quark matter, strange matter would only be slightly positively charged due to the strange quark’s negative charge. Ordinary nuclei do not contain strange quarks and spontaneous decay to strange matter would be extremely suppressed even if strange quarks were ultimately more stable; thus, the apparent stability of ordinary nuclei does not preclude the possibility that strangelets—droplets of quark matter containing strange quarks—are more stable.
The standard belief in the field is that ordinary nuclei are more stable than these alternatives, but the issue is surprisingly hard to resolve. While quantum chromodynamics (QCD)—the theory of quarks and the strong force—should theoretically allow us to resolve the issue, it infamously becomes strongly coupled at low energies and this makes mathematical computations intractable. Computing the proton mass from scratch to a few percent was a significant milestone and required substantial supercomputer time (Dürr et al. (2008)); such computations become exponentially more expensive as the number of quarks involved increases and so a brute-force approach looks difficult.
Experiments are also of limited help. We have never observed strangelets or droplets of up-down quark matter in collider experiments, but given how hard they would be to produce this tells us little. Terrestrial and cosmic-ray searches have likewise come up empty, but that may only mean that astrophysical processes rarely make quark matter either. Neutron stars are the likeliest place to find it, since their enormous pressures and violent formation should facilitate conversion. So far all observations are compatible with conventional neutron stars rather than quark stars, but observational evidence is limited and difficult to interpret; and conversion of neutron stars to quark stars might be very difficult even if the latter are theoretically more stable (Bombaci et al. (2007)).
Overall, I think both theoretical prejudices and the absence of observational evidence favor ordinary nuclei as the true ground state for baryonic matter. If I had to bet, I would assign 5% credence to up-down quark matter being more stable than ordinary nuclei, and 5% to strange matter.
Positively charged strangelets are safe, neutral strangelets are not
Suppose, contrary to the expectations above, that strangelets really are more stable than ordinary nuclei. Ordinary matter is then the metastable phase, and a strangelet can seed the true ground state:
This turns out to depend entirely on the charge of the strangelet. Conversion is driven by the strong force and requires contact between the strangelet and nucleus. But electrostatic forces are long-ranged and nuclei are positively charged, and this exponentially suppresses nuclear interactions. Indeed, the light nuclei surrounding us are already unstable to fusion. For example, it is energetically favorable to fuse hydrogen into deuterium (
Positively charged strangelets would likewise repel nuclei, rendering them inert under normal conditions. In the appendix we calculate what would happen if a positively charged strangelet were to be thrown into the Sun and find that even in this case it would have no effect. But for a neutral, or worse, negatively charged strangelet, no suppression occurs. In this case we find that the strangelet would grow without bound and destroy the Sun. Importantly, the strangelet still remains whole and never divides despite growing to massive size. As a result, while the Sun is eventually destroyed this process takes
So, are strangelets positively charged? The up quark has charge
If I had to bet, I would give
Up-down quark matter, which only contains up and down quarks, is almost certainly positively charged and would therefore be completely benign if stable.
Strangelets would be hard to make
Suppose we are in the dangerous corner of the space: strangelets are stable, and neutral or negative, so a loose one really would consume the Sun. Could someone make one on purpose? This looks impossible with current or near-future technology, though perhaps not for a sufficiently advanced civilization.
One route would be to find some naturally occurring strange matter. Presumably it must be extremely rare, given that we see none of the astrophysical signatures it would produce if abundant. But perhaps some neutron stars have been converted into strange stars, and if so one could harvest strangelets from them. That itself is probably much harder than it sounds—the strange star is tightly bound both by gravity and the strong force—but I would guess it could be achieved.
The harder route is to assemble strange matter yourself. One method is to collide two heavy nuclei at high energy and hope the debris coalesces into strange matter. Experiments at RHIC and the LHC have done exactly this without producing any observed strangelets, positively charged or otherwise. But in any case, we know from cosmic rays that such collisions could not create a dangerous strangelet: heavy nuclei collide at these energies, and far higher, all over the surface of the Moon, and have done so for billions of years (Jaffe et al. (2000)).
Heavy-ion collisions are in any case limited in what they can produce. If a stable strangelet requires some minimum number of strange quarks
Exotic physics could permit ways to destroy protons, but not autocatalytically
Baryonic matter is stable in the Standard Model because baryon number is conserved. But baryon conservation is an “accidental symmetry” of the Standard Model arising from the mathematical structure of the low-energy effective field theory regardless of the more fundamental underlying physics. Actually, baryon number is already technically broken by subtle non-perturbative effects, and while these have no observable consequences they suggest that there is nothing ultimately sacred about baryon number. Finally, the generic expectation is that theories of quantum gravity do not have global symmetries; black-hole Hawking radiation, in particular, does not seem to respect such symmetries.
If these arguments are correct (and I think they are very strong), the proton itself is unstable and will decay through pathways such as:
Spontaneous proton decay is thus only relevant on timescales absurdly longer than the age of the universe. But some theories let the decay be catalyzed. For example, some grand unified theories have magnetic monopoles that catalyze proton decay. They are very heavy, weighing some
Catalysts are scary only if they can self-reproduce through some process
Other forms of matter offer no plausible chain reaction
What about the other components of matter: electrons, photons, and neutrinos? Unlike the proton, which is only “accidentally” stable in the Standard Model, these are protected by deeper physical principles that are expected to remain true in more fundamental theories:
The electron is stable because it is the lightest charged particle.
The photon is stable because it is the lightest particle; indeed it is exactly massless.
The (lightest) neutrino is stable because it is the lightest fermion; conservation of angular momentum prevents decay into photons or other bosons.
Because the photon is massless, consistency forces it to couple to a conserved current, so charge is conserved. The only way to violate charge conservation is to give the photon a mass by spontaneously breaking the gauge symmetry, which requires introducing new additional light degrees of freedom which we have no theoretical reason to expect; furthermore the empirical bounds are very strong. The electron could still be unstable if lighter charged particles exist. But charged particles couple universally to the photon, and observational evidence rules out a light new particle with charge
Unlike the electron and the photon, the neutrino’s stability merely follows from its being the lightest fermion we know of. It is conceivable that lighter fermions exist, and there are no strong bounds against them: neutrinos interact so feebly that we can barely tell whether they decay at all, and a light fermion escapes cosmological limits entirely unless it was thermally produced. But a self-sustaining chain reaction among neutrinos would require extremely contrived dynamics—and we would then have to explain why it had not already run to completion at some point in the history of the universe. In any case, the cosmic neutrino density is tiny, and we would barely notice even if every neutrino were converted into photons.
Now turn to dark matter. Unlike neutrinos, its energy density is substantial. The local halo density corresponds to a blackbody temperature of about 500 K, and so if converted to photons it would cook the Earth. But again, it is extremely hard, perhaps impossible, to contrive theories where dark matter can chain-react, producing substantial visible radiation in the process, yet otherwise remains cosmologically stable and invisible to our detection efforts, while spontaneously reacting so infrequently that we have never observed dark matter explosions.
Tiny black holes are not scary
Let us finally turn to gravity. The inexorable attraction of a black hole might sound scary, but the truth is that gravity is by far the weakest force and so tiny black holes are rather pathetic.
The smallest possible black hole has a mass of 20
Black hole lifetimes increase with size, but for black holes to pose any real danger they have to hoover up matter faster than they evaporate. Hawking power falls as
Conclusion: New physics permits no super-weapon between the nuclear bomb and false vacuum decay
In this post we have explored a question of leverage: whether a small, buildable trigger can set off a runaway out of all proportion to itself. Brute force is another matter: a civilization operating on astronomical scales could fling asteroids or planets, trigger supernovae, or build enormous lasers, and do immense damage. [4] But a runaway requires a chain reaction, and that chain reaction needs a fuel: something that can convert into a more stable state, releasing energy on the way.
Chemistry gives us feeble explosives. It also gives us complicated self-replicating system like living organisms or von Neumann probes, which could be very dangerous but lie outside our scope here. The shift from chemistry to nuclear physics allowed the construction of far more powerful explosives (though no new complex self-replicators). Could new physics yield even bigger explosions? The table collects every candidate the Standard Model and gravity provide from the nuclear scale upward, spanning this post and its companion on false vacuum decay:
| Fuel | Product | Reaction possible? | Runaway possible? | Comments |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy nuclei | Lighter nuclei | Yes | Rarely | Requires a fissile isotope like uranium-235 |
| Light nuclei | Heavier nuclei | Yes | No | Fusion radiates faster than it burns unless confined |
| Nuclei | Up-down quark matter | Very unlikely | No | Probably isn’t stable; would be positively charged, and therefore inert, if it were |
| Nuclei | Strangelets | Very unlikely | Very unlikely | Strangelets probably do not exist and would probably be positively charged if they did |
| Protons | Positrons | Probably | Very unlikely | No way to autocatalytically trigger baryon decay |
| Electrons, photons, neutrinos | Nothing lighter | Very unlikely | Very unlikely | Each is the lightest particle of its kind, with nothing more stable to decay into |
| Dark matter | Photons | Very unlikely | Very unlikely | An enormous reservoir, but nothing couples to it to release it |
| Small black hole | Larger black hole | Yes | Very unlikely | Evaporates too fast and captures matter too slowly |
| False vacuum | True vacuum | Probably | Yes | Probably possible, but probably not intentionally triggerable |
The answer appears to be no: there are no new more powerful explosions on the horizon, or, with the potential exception of false vacuum decay, probably ever. The explosion of the first atomic bomb in 1945 had been barely anticipated even a decade earlier, and came as a surprise to all but a handful of physicists. [5] But our understanding of physics is far more advanced now than it was a century ago: the Standard Model has passed every laboratory test in the fifty years since it was written down, and astrophysics and cosmology confirm that the same laws hold across the universe. We can say with some confidence that new physics will provide nothing analogous to the nuclear bomb.
Appendix 1: Igniting the Atmosphere
Whether a nuclear explosion could ignite a self-sustaining fusion burn in the air was settled during the Manhattan Project by Konopinski, Marvin & Teller (1946) in report LA-602, but it is not the most accessible source and here I will give a basic overview.
Nitrogen-14 is the most abundant nuclide in the atmosphere, and can fuse to form heavier elements through reactions such as:
A parcel of air at temperature
If
Our constant
As a result,
With help from Claude 4.8, I attempted to reproduce the Konopinski 1946
Figure 1 shows the reconstructed
Safety factor for nitrogen fusion in air
Similar bounds exist for other nuclear reactions and, because the bremsstrahlung radiation scales as
Optically thick ignition
The bremsstrahlung argument assumes the radiation escapes, which holds only while the parcel is smaller than the photon mean free path. For a larger region, the photons never escape and instead reach thermal equilibrium with the nuclei and electrons. Because the energy released remains trapped in the region, bremsstrahlung radiation can no longer prevent ignition.
For the reaction to spread, however, it still must produce enough energy to heat the surrounding cold air; advancing the front by one parcel means heating it to some temperature
The temperature at which fusion becomes appreciable is set by the Coulomb barrier (see Appendix 2). For two
Appendix 2: Let’s throw a strangelet into the sun
Imagine that a strangelet suddenly appeared in the core of the Sun. What would happen?
Neutral strangelet
Let
Let us first assume that the strangelet is perfectly neutral and remains so as it grows. Let us also assume that any protons that collide with the strangelet are immediately converted to more strangelet. If so, then initially the strangelet baryon number
This growth rate holds only while the strangelet stays smaller than the proton mean free path,
with
If each proton colliding with the strangelet releases some fraction
As the strangelet grows its power output increases. But so long as its power output is small compared to the rest of the Sun, it has negligible effect on the global structure of the Sun, and remains invisible to observers. This remains true until the radius reaches:
Past this point, the Sun becomes increasingly bright as strangelet energy emissions come to dominate regular fusion. The increased radiation pressure causes the Sun to expand, akin to a red giant. Lowered density at the core causes
Over
Positive strangelet
Now let us repeat the same exercise, but assuming the strangelet has charge:
Using the WKB approximation, the absorption cross-section for an incoming proton with energy
To compute the capture rate we must average this cross-section over the Maxwell-Boltzmann distribution of proton velocities in the plasma. In the latter distribution, the thermal population of particles with energy
Bonus: neutral strangelet meets Earth
What if a neutral strangelet were created at the Earth’s core? Just as in the solar case, growth here will become limited by the rate at which energy can be transported from the strangelet, resulting in a constant expansion rate of:
- ↩︎
Thermonuclear weapons also typically include a uranium-238 bomb casing. High-energy neutrons produced by fusion can fission the uranium-238, releasing more energy. This final fission step is typically responsible for the majority of bomb yield. Like the fusion step, it cannot self-propagate. See the Nuclear Weapon Archive for a detailed discussion.
- ↩︎
Technically speaking the Standard Model violates baryon number symmetry non-perturbatively through sphalerons but these can only change baryon number by
, which means the proton remains absolutely stable within the Standard Model. Nuclei with baryon number , such as He, could in principle decay via this mechanism, but the lifetime is years. - ↩︎
This assumes the true Planck scale of
GeV. In the very unlikely event that space has large extra dimensions, the effective Planck scale could fall to as low as a TeV and this could place tiny black holes within reach of colliders. Such TeV-scale black holes would still evaporate in s, rendering them harmless. Even if they somehow failed to evaporate, their capture cross-section of m² would mean that they would grow only very very slowly. - ↩︎
A hypothetical matter-antimatter bomb falls into this category. There’s no barrier to matter-antimatter annihilation and no chain reaction. Instead, the antimatter has to be made manually, paying the full energetic cost for the explosion, and then somehow suspended in an essentially perfect vacuum. This seems extremely hard, probably impossible for practical purposes. Furthermore, because there’s no kinetic barrier to annihilation, any failure of the confinement system (including, for example, someone detonating an ordinary explosive nearby) would cause the whole thing to blow up.
- ↩︎↩︎
Note the proton-proton and proton-deuterium fusion are strongly suppressed, the former because it requires a weak decay:
and the latter because it requires electromagnetic radiation Deuterium is found naturally, comprising about 1 part in every 6700 hydrogen atoms in the ocean. However, while deuterium is not ruled out by the ignition bound—Rider (1995) estimates for pure D-D in pure deuterium—power production scales with while the strength of the bremsstrahlung radiation scales with the total number of electrons and is dominated by their interactions with the highly charged oxygen nuclei. As a result, in ocean water and there is absolutely no risk of ignition. The dense hydrogen surrounding the cores of Jupiter and Saturn is similarly inert.
Not earth-busting, but the ordinary scaling of a thermonuclear bomb can go pretty far! I think Project Sundial deserves an honorable mention.
Tsar bomba as reference for comparison: It’s the most powerful weapon tested so far and “yielded the equivalent of 50 megatons of TNT”, while Project Sundial “intended to have a yield of 10 gigatons of TNT”, i.e. a factor 200 between them.
Is there an upper limit to the possible yield of thermonuclear weapons? Could the pressure wave become strong enough to break windows and more around the globe?
There’s no hard limit to increasing thermonuclear weapon yield by increasing the number of stages, but you’d have to proportionally increase the bomb size. The Taylor limit of ~6 kt/kg means that a 10 Gt bomb would need to weigh at least ~2000 t. Could easily fit on a cargo ship but an OOM larger than the largest airplane.
Naively the damage radius scales with as yield^(1/3), so you’d need a ~17 Tt bomb to shatter windows on the other side of the planet. For comparison, the Chicxulub impactor that probably killed the dinosaurs released about 100 Tt; smashed windows at the antipode are probably the least of your concerns at that point.
Shouldn’t the scaling be yield^{1/2} if you’re considering energy radial flux? But also, on these scales we should consider whether the atmosphere “channels” the energy as it bounces between the ground and the upper terminal points thus achieving something more like a ~yield scaling?
Thermal radiation goes as yield^{1/2} for the reason you’ve suggested but pressure goes as yield^{1/3} because the region of overpressure expands and therefore maximum pressure is 1/volume. I’m not sure how this interacts with the curvature of the Earth but would generically expect this to make things more benign at the antipode, not less.
I thought we were talking about a shockwave, so ultimately a pressure front? That’s the part that travels several times around the world. I mean obviously with plenty of volumetric loss/dispersion on the road.
Fun fact about tiny black holes: A decently massive black hole (10^13 kg, trillions of years of lifetime) could pass through a human body without killing them: https://arxiv.org/html/2502.09734v2
I think there is a missing step between the core argument of the article (no new physics remain to allow superpowerful bombs) and the layman conclusion (don’t be afraid of superweapons).
The reason bombs are terrifying is that they destroy value; traditional bombs do so by releasing a lot of energy in a chaotic manner, which disperses whatever I care about; other kinds of which you discuss homogenize everything into uninteresting states.
But it’s easy to make superweapons that don’t rely on new physics, at that level of abstraction: you only need something that can increase its own power, like engineered plagues, nanobots or memes. Even without a clear catalytic reaction on an elegantly simple level, they run on a substrate that is very expressive, allowing them to run extremely complex self-replication which more than compensates for the need to run on a complex substrate.
Saying that there is “no superweapon between the nuclear bomb and false vacuum decay” is a huge conceptual leap, and I think your conclusion could be much sharper (even if the disambiguation section on asteroids or lasers already pulls a lot of weight), like “New superweapons won’t come from theoretical physics research.”.
People may be afraid of strangelets or black holes because they think “oh, physicists discovered nuclear energy then made nukes, the same could happen with the LHC” and this article cleanly dissolves that narrow misconception, but “oh, scientists discovered powerful new technology then made nukes, the same could happen with AI” is very close, and is not invalidated by your article.
This is why I think it’d be a mistake to learn a heuristic of not being afraid of big science stuff, even if just learning about all of this was fascinating.
I’ve edited the conclusion to try to make the scope clearer (I meant “between” in the physicist’s sense of phenomena at intermediate energy scales, so that chemical systems are explicitly out of scope; I realize now that’s not obvious). I certainly don’t believe that all big science stuff is definitely safe!
Antimatter-initiated fusion explosives have been proposed. You are not getting orders of magnitude over a thermonuclear bomb if you’re building ‘as big as possible’: https://arxiv.org/pdf/physics/0507114 but it does create the possibility of some interesting devices.
This paper was the definitive ‘no you cannot ignite the atmosphere or ocean’. It does speculate that ignitable (very rich in Deuterium) layers may exist on the surface of gas giants or stars: https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1979PhRvA..20..316W/abstract with the eyes of 1979. With the eyes of 2026, I don’t think there’s any reason to believe that there’s a layer on a star or gas giant rich enough in D to be detonated by a thermonuclear explosive.
A fun sci-fi x-risk scenario to think through was ‘what are the implications of any person (or extrasolar alien) capable of building a pressurized ‘Jupiter-diver’ that can reach a particular layer without being torn apart, loaded with a thermonuclear bomb on board can turn the gas giant Jupiter into a giant grenade, with the attendant bad consequences for the solar system?
Fortunately, such a layer almost certainly does not exist!
I had never thought that strangelet growth dynamics would be dominated by them being exothermic, so that they heat protons away from them and that hampers their growth.
About tiny black holes, another possible use for them would be simply as bombs themselves, right? Evaporation should be catastrophic and highly energetic for unstable black holes, and basically free up amounts of energy.
The issue is that they decay too fast! You’d be focusing immense energy into a tiny point just for that energy to be immediately released; why not just cut the middle-man and aim your immense energy beams directly where you want?
I guess I’m thinking about whether it could be an amplifier of some kind—your immense energy beam hits something compressing the matter to that kind of critical extent and thus adding its energy to the process. But I suppose ultimately it’d pretty much cost as much to compress as is released on evaporation so probably not a particularly useful addition.
Reassuring!
Yeah, flinging asteroids or making the Sun explode seems like they could also be classified as “superweapons”, so I am now finding this less reassuring w/r to whether physics allows for the destruction of the Earth. You also have things like the Great Oxydation event and just generally weird macroscale configurations...
You could have a von Neumann probe that changes matter into useless configurations/increases entropy on purpose, or that flings as much matter as it can into a massive black hole. This might also count as destroying vast swathes of the universe.
So to the extent I find this post less reassuring on reflection is that there is a gap between the detailed argument (no physical runway reaction, no vaccum decay for the universe) and the broader claim (no superweapon, universe not destructible).
I agree nothing rules out flinging asteroids at Earth or creating a fleet to manually disassemble the galaxy! They are “ruled-in” already, though there’s a question of practical offense-defense balance and they could be interesting to analyze further.
The false vacuum decay post is about destroying the universe via the only mechanism which exists within ordinary physics (though if you are sufficiently open-minded you could imagine weirder hypotheticals like triggering a bug in our source code or making God angry). This post is about exotic runaway reactions beyond nuclear physics. Self-replicating chemical systems (eg, living organisms, Von Neumann probes) could be very dangerous, but aren’t in scope and have different properties (inc. defendibility; playing by the ordinary rules of physics we know and love).
Yeah I don’t think we disagree, I’d just like to see a more general analysis in this style towards a larger supercategory (e.g., superweapons, destroying the universe) as opposed to the specifics (runway physics, inducing a vaccuum decay), and bring your attention towards the gap between the categories :)
Ok, beautiful read, this post and <https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/EvJ2fMzLQLvYooumu/destroying-the-universe-how-hard-can-it-be>. It seems that most of the uncertainty is not going to come from the specific pathways you consider, but from a) new physics, b) configurations of current physics you didn’t think about. Can you say a bit more about that?
This is awesome, but I do have some questions about the potential for future (explosive) superweapons. It seems to me that there is clear potential for an antimatter bomb: if there is some way to efficiently produce antimatter and contain it (in mangetic containment?) then the resulting annihilation with ordinary matter should be orders of magnitude more destructive per gram of “explosive” than a thermonuclear warhead. Many speculative space colonization frameworks often include descriptions of antimatter as an extremely mass-efficient fuel for acceleration and deceleration of Von Neuman probes, but I haven’t yet seen any arguments that point out that this technology is also a dual-use global WMD.
Are there fundamental physical constraints that make it impractical to either produce or contain antimatter for this purpose?
For antimatter bombs there’s no chain reaction, and nothing stops matter and antimatter annihilating on contact, which is why antimatter doesn’t occur in nature and why you have to manufacture it yourself, paying the full energy cost with no shortcut.
Could you build one anyway? It seems extremely tough because there’s no physical barrier to annihilation; I don’t see how you could confine macroscopic quantities by any realistic mechanism (but there’s no simple rule-out “this is impossible”). Even worse, if confinement ever failed (including, eg, someone detonating an ordinary explosive nearby) the whole thing would blow up on you.
First of all, this was a fascinating read! I agree that there are probably no triggerable runaway reactions beyond nuclear reactions.
I think the conclusion:
Is a little flawed. Explosions / destructive capability do not necessarily need to involve runaway reactions. Off the top of my head, the ability to gather and store appreciable amounts of antimatter would certainly represent a significant increase in destructive energy density, even if it is “brute force”.
I would more agree with the conclusion that the nuclear bomb was probably a one-off jump in our destructive capabilities. Afterwards, our destructive capabilities would scale more smoothly with respect to our overall capabilities (as we are able to redirect heavier asteroids, produce more antimatter, etc.).