I don’t quite get the argument here; doesn’t anthropic shadow imply we have nothing to worry about (except for maybe hyperexistential risks) since we’re guaranteed to be living in a timeline where humanity survives in the end?
But it doesn’t say we’re guaranteed not to be living in a timeline where humanity doesn’t survive.
If I had a universe copying machine and a doomsday machine, pressed the “universe copy” button 1000 times (for 2¹⁰⁰⁰ universes), then smashed relativistic meteors into Earth in all but one of them… would you call that an ethical issue? I certainly would, even though the inhabitants of the original universe are guaranteed to be living in a timeline where they don’t die horribly from a volcanic apocalypse.
I can’t remember pain, in much the same way. Perhaps extreme depression “counts as” mental pain enough to trigger this effect?
Write “half”, or (if you’re feeling pedantic), “~half”.
Bayesian inference only functions within known solution-space. Spotting things outside of known solution space, while rare, is essential for the progression of science – and can’t be modelled simply as Bayesian inference.
Did anyone point out that the 3DS has a camera title?
Communication transfers ideas from one person to another. If technically correct communication transfers false ideas, it is deception. Accurate communication transfers correct ideas with high fidelity, which isn’t necessarily equivalent to technically correct communication.
I can confirm that that’s an expression in English.
but it’s hard to hear the story and imagine that that grandpa is an old timey european, talking about good wolves.
That is what I thought. Not “old timey” per se, but modern grandparent age. The story feels five to ten years old, to me.
or so as not to confuse the public with changed numbers
If you’re withholding knowledge to avoid confusing people, chances are that your withholding is the primary source of confusion. Just say “new estimates” or “revised estimates” – job done.
What could survive is a propensity to become the sort of person to sacrifice yourself to protect your family. given that no other family member has done so. Or, a propensity to sacrifice yourself that would normally kick in after you’ve had kids. But actually sacrificing yourself before you pass on your genes is a textbook example of “selected against”.
I think it’s just reachability. Arbital is Far Away, and it’s plausible that not everyone even knows it exists.
A second, detailed reading might make it seem like this comment’s has an error. However, the reasoning is sound; “you said the coin was heads” doesn’t distinguish very well between “the coin was heads” and “the coin was tails but you lied about the bet”, so doesn’t provide much evidence.
Likewise, the dismissing of hearsay appears to be an error, but remember that humans have finite computational power. If you take into account (at least) the hypothesis that somebody’s trying to deceive you about reality, you effectively end up dismissing the evidence anyway – but then you need to keep track of an extra hypothesis for the rest of your life to avoid scatterings of hearsay consistently nudging up your probability estimate when that’s not really founded. (This is assuming that it’s cheap to manufacture hearsay; expensive-to-manufacture hearsay shouldn’t be dismissed so lightly.)
I had to think about this for quite a while before I could refute it. Well done.
So, the universe is bleen?
If you happen to have evolved a cognitive architecture that permits storing information about the state of the world in the same format as information about how to build new members of the species, transferring that information would grant an evolutionary advantage over not. The only “just so” assumption is in such a cognitive architecture having developed, but they’re allowed that assumption given that the Super Happies already exist.
Yes, it was something Yudkowsky added. But the text doesn’t imply ghosts aren’t “really people”; it just states that they’re read-only human simulations of unknown fidelity, and the characters are chauvinistic about that.
Implying that ghosts aren’t really people
Or were just exempted from protection from the Interdict of Merlin, like books.
You should also take into account what this signals to people who know you’ve had a nose job (e.g. vanity).
They look like it, but its some sort of emergent behaviour,
I agree with this assessment. It almost feels like a hive mind; I’ve dipped into the peripherals of online mobs before, and have felt “hey, this action is a good idea” thoughts enter my head unbidden. I’d probably participate in such things often, if I didn’t have a set of heuristics that (coincidentally) cancels out most of this effect, and a desire not to associate with the sorts of people who form mobs.
If the barrier-to-entry is increased to “requires two minutes of unrewarded drudgery, where it’s not intuitively obvious what needs to be done” in such a way that a short, well-worded “mob instruction” message can’t bypass the effect, it’s unlikely a mob will form around such actions.
Incidentally, I wonder whether programming for the mob is a field of social psychology.
How can a swarm of nuclear asbestos superintelligent nanobots be synthesised using common household items? (The rhetoric in the answer will keep your guard down for just long enough to publish it.)