I had a nice conversation with Ege today over dinner, in which we identified a possible bet to make! Something I think will probably happen in the next 4 years, that Ege thinks will probably NOT happen in the next 15 years, such that if it happens in the next 4 years Ege will update towards my position and if it doesn’t happen in the next 4 years I’ll update towards Ege’s position.
Drumroll...
I (DK) have lots of ideas for ML experiments, e.g. dangerous capabilities evals, e.g. simple experiments related to paraphrasers and so forth in the Faithful CoT agenda. But I’m a philosopher, I don’t code myself. I know enough that if I had some ML engineers working for me that would be sufficient for my experiments to get built and run, but I can’t do it by myself.
When will I be able to implement most of these ideas with the help of AI assistants basically substituting for ML engineers? So I’d still be designing the experiments and interpreting the results, but AutoGPT5 or whatever would be chatting with me and writing and debugging the code.
I think: Probably in the next 4 years. Ege thinks: probably not in the next 15.
I had a nice conversation with Ege today over dinner, in which we identified a possible bet to make! Something I think will probably happen in the next 4 years, that Ege thinks will probably NOT happen in the next 15 years, such that if it happens in the next 4 years Ege will update towards my position and if it doesn’t happen in the next 4 years I’ll update towards Ege’s position.
Drumroll...
I (DK) have lots of ideas for ML experiments, e.g. dangerous capabilities evals, e.g. simple experiments related to paraphrasers and so forth in the Faithful CoT agenda. But I’m a philosopher, I don’t code myself. I know enough that if I had some ML engineers working for me that would be sufficient for my experiments to get built and run, but I can’t do it by myself.
When will I be able to implement most of these ideas with the help of AI assistants basically substituting for ML engineers? So I’d still be designing the experiments and interpreting the results, but AutoGPT5 or whatever would be chatting with me and writing and debugging the code.
I think: Probably in the next 4 years. Ege thinks: probably not in the next 15.
Ege, is this an accurate summary?
Yes, this summary seems accurate.