Have your probabilities for AGI on given years changed at all since this breakdown you gave 7 months ago? I, and I’m sure many others, defer quite a lot to your views on timelines, so it would be good to have an updated breakdown.
15% − 202415% − 202515% − 202610% − 20275% − 20285% − 20293% − 20302% − 20312% − 20322% − 20332% − 20342% − 2035
My 2024 probability has gone down from 15% to 5%. Other than that things are pretty similar, so just renormalize I guess.
Have your probabilities for AGI on given years changed at all since this breakdown you gave 7 months ago? I, and I’m sure many others, defer quite a lot to your views on timelines, so it would be good to have an updated breakdown.
15% − 2024
15% − 2025
15% − 2026
10% − 2027
5% − 2028
5% − 2029
3% − 2030
2% − 2031
2% − 2032
2% − 2033
2% − 2034
2% − 2035
My 2024 probability has gone down from 15% to 5%. Other than that things are pretty similar, so just renormalize I guess.