“While I’ve written on this many times before, it seems time to restate my position.”
“While I agree that this is a logically possible scenario, not excluded by what we know, I am disappointed to see so many giving it such a high credence, given how crazy far it seems from our prior experience. Yes, there is a sense in which the human, farming, and industry revolutions were each likely the result of a single underlying innovation. But those were the three biggest innovations in all of human history. And large parts of the relevant prior world exploded together in those cases, not one tiny part suddenly exterminating all the rest.
In addition, the roughly decade duration predicted from prior trends for the length of the next transition period seems plenty of time for today’s standard big computer system testing practices to notice alignment issues. And note that the impressive recent AI chatbots are especially unlike the systems of concern here: self-improving very-broadly-able full-agents with hidden intentions. Making this an especially odd time to complain that new AI systems might have killed us all.”
Seems not much has changed in the Yudkowsky vs. Hanson position over the years, i.e. still assigning high vs. low existential risk.