Fascinating stuff about possible beneficial effect of MMR and TDAP boosters—they could help mitigate the risk of getting Covid:
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2021/08/210831142423.htm
Fascinating stuff about possible beneficial effect of MMR and TDAP boosters—they could help mitigate the risk of getting Covid:
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2021/08/210831142423.htm
“The sense in which you have to ‘beat the market’ is the danger that everyone might be trying to get the booster at the same time when things are about to get bad, and fighting for limited appointment slots. That is potentially a concern, but given people’s reluctance to boost, I do not anticipate there being enough additional demand to cause much of an issue. Even if there is, you’ll have ample warning.”
That, and it’s not a zero sum game. If there’s a mad rush to get boosted right before a wave, that’s going to have the aggregate effect of making that wave into more of a ripple.
Right. There’s definitely some sort of bias in the testing.
One area in which I’ve run out of patience is the “Home tests are keeping case counts down” trope. In order for that to be true, you need to make a lot of assumptions about what those home-testers would be doing if there weren’t any home tests available. Would they be running out to get PCR tests? Somehow I doubt it.
Thanks for this thoughtful analysis. Concrete example: there have been house fires in which loss of smell from Covid was a contributing factor.
Also people who are “hard of smelling” often develop cardiac issues because they tend to over-salt their food. My aunt has struggled with this for several decades now after a chemical accident, and recently had a heart attack.
I’m assuming insurance companies will pay for it. The government will still be paying indirectly to the extent that insurance premiums are pre-tax.
I’m also predicting that Paxlovid will probably end up being used for way more viruses than just Covid. If that happens, it could obviate the need for testing.
I’d counter with the theory that there’s been a marked shift in why people are testing. If you’re mostly testing for the purpose of controlling the spread (e.g. contact tracing) then the CFR will be lower than if you’re focused on treating people who are acutely ill (with the goal of getting antivirals ASAP)
I do broadly agree with you that there are perverse incentives for people to avoid going on record as having Covid, especially with what we’re finding out about possible long term cardiovascular issues (if you ever want to buy life insurance, don’t get a PCR test). That could have the effect you’re describing.
The photo of the anti-vax sign has only reinforced my belief that anything printed in comic sans is inherently dubious
Reducing all constitutional rights to a “freedom to transact” seems like a bold claim. It may have been realistic a few centuries when the only transactions had natural limitations because they required proximity. In the context of modern society and instantaneous transactions (both financial and non-financial) over large distances I’m not sure it’s as clean cut. Not saying that the reasoning is wrong after the initial assumption is made, I just find the axiom a little hard to swallow.
Microcovids start to diverge from actual probabilities earlier than you might think. I’ve commented on their github page
I appreciate how you balance skepticism with empathy. It took guts. Thank you.
Yes, they do what they claim to do because the insurance companies and underwriters have been tracking this stuff for decades. Physical fitness for operating heavy machinery is essential for public safety.
Um, no. Rules requiring truckers to keep certain health issues in check (or not have them in the first place) are to prevent accidents involving trucks. Because accidents involving trucks can end very, very badly. Because trucks are enormous.
It never used to be regarded as overbearing or paternalistic to have medical exams for truckers.
The most brutal way of understanding a pandemic in economic terms is to view humans as “widgets”
lockdowns can be thought of as recalling a defective product
the value of humans is marked down, leading to an economic crash
through a mixture of vaccination and infection, we create covid-proof humans. Some of the non-covid-proof humans die. In order to avoid the law of diminishing returns we need lots of different production methods. The hot mess of vaccination/restrictions being loosened to get more people infected is a feature, not a bug
eventually most humans will be either dead or covid-proof
And yet the history of protests specifically involving trucks frequently does lead to coups.
Please somebody write a parody of the eponymous CW McCall song.
In all seriousness though, I can’t agree with you that vaccination isn’t important for driving an 18 wheeler. In part it’s our own fault with our collective messaging, implying that the only threat to public safety posed by the unvaccinated is that they are more likely to infect you. In fact, CDL’s in most countries require annual physical exams and licensees are required to demonstrate that they have a number of chronic conditions under control: obesity, diabetes, heart disease, allergies, epilepsy—to name a few. We simply can’t afford to have truckers at risk of lapsing in their concentration.
A few years ago a British insurance company did a study comparing the effects of “having had too much alcohol” and “having a cold.”
https://www.findlaw.com/legalblogs/personal-injury/is-driving-with-a-cold-as-dangerous-as-driving-drunk/#:~:text=One study%2C conducted by the,concentration while behind the wheel.
Finally, one of the cardinal symptoms of Covid, loss of smell, is very much germane to safety on the road. Yes, we do absolutely want truck drivers to be able to smell smoke. And gas leaks.
Also—civil unrest involving truck drivers played a non-trivial role in bringing down Salvador Allende’s government. That was 1973, oil prices were soaring everywhere, and the stuff described in the movie and the song you reference was happening simultaneously in the US—and it helped to bring down Jimmy Hoffa. It also played a role ushering in better regulation of pension funds and self-funded health insurance plans. My dad would not have a guaranteed pension right now if it weren’t for the convoys of 1973.
“Mercy sakes alive”
Love your reference to CW McCall, keep up the awesome work you do
And yet we did create exactly that impression early on, with the homages to essential workers (as if working from home in a tiny apartment in Harlem with kids running around didn’t come with its own unique set of difficulties).
The idea of some people having more worth than others was emphasized again in the early days of vaccination: “Get vaccinated...when it’s your turn”
Framing everything around altruism has foreseeable risks.
Has anyone considered the possibility that the messaging early on in the pandemic fundamentally devalued human life, to the point where rational people might conclude that the world doesn’t much care about their continued existence?
“Don’t wear masks that protect the wearer, they need to be reserved for....people more valuable than you”
People aged 10-14 are impressionable and impulsive, but they aren’t dumb.
Which is why insurance companies should be encouraged to start underwriting the cost of quarantines. With a discount for people who get vaccinated.