Tenoke
One of the reasons why it’s plausible that today’s or tomorrow’s LLMs can result in brief simulations of consciousness or even qualia is that it happens with dreams in humans. Dreams are likely some sort of processing of information/compression/garbage collection, yet they still result in (badly) simulated experiences as a clear side-effect of trying to work with human experience data.
I still want something even closer to Givewell but for AI Safety (though it is easier to find where to donate now than before). Hell, I wouldn’t mind if LW itself had recommended charities in a prominent place (though I guess LW now mostly asks for Lightcone donations instead).
Thanks for sharing this. Based on the About page, my ‘vote’ as a EU citizen working in an ML/AI position could conceivably count for a little more, so it seems worth doing it. I’ll put it in my backlog and aim to get to it on time (it does seem like a lengthy task).
If you don’t know who to believe then falling back on prediction markets or at least expert consensus is not the worst strategy.
Do you truly not believe that for your own ljfe—to use the examples there—solving aging, curing all disease, solving energy isn’t even more valuable? To you? Perhaps you don’t believe those possible but then that’s where the whole disagreement lies.
And if you are talking about Superintelligent AGI and automation why even talk about output per person? I thought you at least believe people are automated out and thus decoupled?
Does he not believe in AGI and Superintelligence at all? Why not just say that?
AI could cure all diseases and “solve energy”. He mentions “radical abundance” as a possibility as well, but beyond the R&D channel
This is clearly about Superintelligence and the mechanism through which it will happen in that scenario is straightforward and often talked about. And if he disagrees he either doesn’t believe in AGI (or at least advanced AGI) or believes that solving energy, curing disease is not that valuable? Or he is purposefully talking about a pre-AGI scenario while arguing against post-AGI views?
to lead to an increase in productivity and output *per person*
This quote certainly suggests this. It’s just hard to tell if this is due to bad reasoning or on purpose to promote his start-up.
AI 2027 is more useful for the arguments than the specific year but even if not as aggressive, prediction markets (or at least Manifold) predict 61% chance before 2030, 65% before 2031, 73% by 2033.
I, similarly, can see it happening slightly later than 2027-2028 because some specific issues take longer to solve than others but I see no reason to think a timeline beyond 2035, like yours, let alone 30 years is grounded in reality.
It also doesn’t help that when I look at your arguments and apply them to what would then seem to be very optimistic forecast in 2020 about progress in 2025 (or even Kokotajlo’s last forecast), those same arguments would have similarly rejected what has happened.
I believe he means rationality-associsted discourse and it’s not like there are so many contenders.
There’s indeed been no one with that level of reach that has spread this much misinformation and started this many negative rumors in the space as David Gerard and RW. Whoever the second closest contender is, is likely not even close.
You can trace back to him A LOT of the negative press online that LW, EY and a ton of other places and people have got. If it wasn’t for RW LW would be much, much more respected.
It’s hard for me to respect a Safety-ish org so obviously wrong about the most important factors of their chosen topic.
I won’t judge a random celebrity for expecting e.g. very long timelines but an AI research center? I’m sure they are very cool people but come on.
As in ultimately more people are likely to like their condition and agree (comparably more) with the AI’s decisions while having roughly equal rights.
Democratic in the ‘favouring or characterized by social equality; egalitarian.’ sense (one of the definitions from Google), rather than about Elections or whatever.
For example, I recently wrote a Short Story of my Day in 2035 in the scenario where things continue mostly like that and we get positive AGI that’s similarish enough to current trends. There, people influenced the initial values—mainly via The Spec, and can in theory vote to make some changes to The Spec that governs the general AI values, but in practice by that point AGI controls everything and it’s more or less set in stone. Still, it overall mostly tries to fulfil people’s desires (overly optimistic that we go this route, I know).
I’d call that more democratic than one that upholds CCP values specifically.
Western AI is much more likely to be democratic and have humanity’s values a bit higher up. Chinese one is much more likely to put CCP values and control higher up.
But yes, if it’s the current US administration specifically, neither option is that optimistic.
While, showing the other point of view and all that is a reasonable practice, it’s disappointing of Dwarkesh to use his platform specifically to promote this anti-safety start-up.
Most people’s main mistake boils down to the assumption that his 2nd term would be more in line with his first—which, while full of quirks, was overall closer to business as usual. His 2nd term in comparison steers much further and the negative effects are much larger.
If so, by default the existence of AGI will be a closely guarded secret for some months. Only a few teams within an internal silo, plu,s leadership & security, will know about the capabilities of the latest systems.,
Are they really going to be that secret—at this point, progress is if not linear, almost predictable and we are well aware of the specific issues to be solved next for AGI—longer task horizons, memory, fewer hallucinations, etc. If you tell me someone is 3-9 months ahead and nearing AGI, I’d simply guess those are the things they are ahead on.
>Even worse, a similarly tiny group of people — specifically, corporate leadership + some select people, from the executive branch of the US government — will be the only people reading the reports and making high-stakes judgment calls
That does sound pretty bad, yes. My last hope in this scenario is that at the last step (even only for the last week or two) when it’s clear they’ll win they at least withold it from the US executive branch and make some of the final decisions on their own—not ideal, but a few % more chance the final decisions aren’t godawful.
For example, imagine Ilya’s lab ends up ahead—I can at least imagine him doing some last minute fine-tuning to make the AGI work for humanity first, ignoring what the US executive branch has ordered, and I can imagine some chance that once that’s done it can mostly be too late to change it.
Sure, but with increased capability in order to predict and simulate the impact of pain or fear better and better one might end up producing a mechanism that simulates it too well. After all, if you are trying to predict really well how a human will react when they are in pain, a natural approach is to check how a different human reacts when you cause them pain.
I don’t know about the usefulness of the map (looks cool, at minimum), but I liked the simple ‘Donation Guide’ section on the site, which led me to make a small donation to AI Safety.
One recommendation—I’d make the ‘Donate to a fund, such as the AI Risk Mitigation Fund.’ portion a bit more prominent. At first I didn’t even realize there was a donation link on the page, just text. It will help if it’s for example an obvious button or just a more prominent call to action that leads you to the fund’s donation page or whoever else you recommend.
>Would you be a human supremacist? From 2025, I’d like to think I would be.
Not really. I’d mostly be happy enough this is where we ended up rather than much worse scenarios which are as of now still possible.
Did we “find” this?
It’s still everyone involved’s best guess as far as I can tell, it’s just not a field that moves that fast or is that actionable (especially compared to AI).
While I believe SC2 and Dota would fail today with sufficient effort, the models didn’t quite perform superhuman, and as far as I am aware no community bots do either.