Warty

Karma: 141

Warty 22 Feb 2026 15:03 UTC
2 points
0
on: If you don’t feel deeply confused about AGI risk, something’s wrong
It feels deeply uncomfortable to be participating in an elite AI x-risk fellowship and tell your peer, manager, or mentor: “idk why ASI poses an existential risk.”
With some nuances, if you don’t know why ASI poses x-risk, a better word choice might be “idk if ASI poses x-risk”.

That frame of mind might be good for successfully executing strategies 1 and 3.

Warty 22 Feb 2026 14:31 UTC
16 points
14
on: The Spectre haunting the “AI Safety” Community
Persuasion. Getting people to care about it.
I thought persuasion was when you convince someone of something. It’s often an additional step after informing them of what you think is true.
In my experience, Persuasion is literally the easiest step.
I’m not convinced. Yud’s book came out months ago and it seems many important people have read it. I would think if the persuasion rate (of the top people) was not very low, things would look much different now.

Let me raise an inconvenient world for you: there are two types of actions in politics, fake and real. For fake actions such as signing a vague statement, attention/information might suffice. For real actions such as passing a law that will prevent lots of money from being made, persuasion of the underlying worldview is necessary.

I happen to think we do live in this world 🙂

Warty 14 Feb 2026 0:32 UTC
6 points
5
on: Hazards of Selection Effects on Approved Information
People don’t express anger and hatred for no reason. When they do, it’s because they have reasons to think something is so bad that it deserves their anger and hatred.
That’s often false, people also express anger and hatred to:
- get attention
- make the target look bad and themselves look good
- activate lizard brain in the audience
There are in fact norms agains some (genuine or not) expressions of anger. The question of applying norms is another nontrivial question. Which is why Goofusia’s take is plausible (what she is exploiting if you will).

Warty 3 Feb 2026 20:36 UTC
1 point
0
on: Warty’s Shortform
Yudkowskian self help thought is weird such as the “firewall” (between beliefs and what would be good to believe)
But I think my mind doesn’t work with the firewall, for example if I slightly delulu myself that my efforts will work out I have energy and such, and idk how to get these benefits with the firewall.
I recall it was a big problem for me for a few weeks when I was reading hpmor

Warty 30 Jan 2026 7:01 UTC
5 points
2
in reply to: Zack_M_Davis’s comment on: Eliezer and I wrote a book: If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies
propaganda (in its literal meaning, “public communication aimed at influencing an audience and furthering an agenda”)
Wiktionary at the link marks that usage as dated, I wouldn’t call it “its literal meaning”. I believe the closest current single word would be “advocacy”.

Warty 28 Jan 2026 3:16 UTC
1 point
0
in reply to: jchan’s comment on: Disagreement Comes From the Dark World
I see how it makes sense but it was super freaking hard for me to understand why “Cassandra/Mule”. These words mean so many things I guess

Warty 27 Jan 2026 17:37 UTC
6 points
1
on: Disagreement Comes From the Dark World
Real-world disagreements tend to persist; they’re predictable—in flagrant contradiction of how the beliefs of Bayesian reasoners would follow a random walk. From this we can infer that typical human disagreements aren’t “honest”, in the sense that at least one of the participants is behaving as if they have some other goal than getting to the truth.
Technically, it’s sufficient if one of the participants incorrectly believes this about the other. If I incorrectly believe you’re a bus arrival time scammer, we won’t converge despite both being honest.

Warty 20 Jan 2026 19:50 UTC
1 point
0
in reply to: Richard_Ngo’s comment on: ricraz’s Shortform
wait, neuron stuff is discrete?

Warty 19 Jan 2026 20:43 UTC
1 point
0
in reply to: TAG’s comment on: Warty’s Shortform
I have a basic understanding of QC. So in my understanding ok sometimes two branches can cancel each other out, or go back to the same state. Still, I would think there is enough “butterfly effect” type stuff that many worlds get split up to never meet again. And for each of those there’s a really small complex number.

Warty 17 Jan 2026 10:57 UTC
1 point
−1
in reply to: FlorianH’s comment on: Warty’s Shortform
I don’t think this can be exactly right. I have googled some largest numbers in the universe (space and time) and they were < 10^100. Then I turned to computing 1/the magnitude of the amplitude of our branch. At that point I have some probability distribution of what that number is, and it can be surprising (aka seem fake) if it’s exponentially more than the previous numbers.
It seems quite clear to me that is a valid form of reasoning that has ever worked correctly. It may turn out to be wrong in this case, but my vibe tell is that something is up with the amplitude.
Some form of this reasoning could work for the cat in your example, e.g. comparing the width of a hair to the size of the house he’d get the order of the order of magnitude of earth (math not checked).
This might work better or worse depending on the version of Occam’s razor, which I have uncertainty over.

Warty 17 Jan 2026 0:55 UTC
2 points
−9
on: Warty’s Shortform
Many Worlds seems fake because doesn’t that imply the universe is tracking a complex number with magnitude in the order of 10^-10^100 for the branch that we live in? Since the worlds have to split up all the time.
all the other quantities (number of atoms in the universe, planck times since the big bang) are only a singly stacked exponential like 10^100
Also whats the precision of these amplitude numbers.

Warty 8 Jan 2026 19:31 UTC
10 points
4
in reply to: davekasten’s comment on: davekasten’s Shortform
Wasn’t translator supposed to be a normal stable job? Allegedly they were hit hard by google translate even pre-llm

Warty 6 Jan 2026 12:21 UTC
9 points
6
in reply to: abstractapplic’s comment on: abstractapplic’s Shortform
the implementation could use some work because the emoji votes here are overflowing on mobile

Don’t defer to people when they’re clearly lying

Warty16 Nov 2025 23:01 UTC

12 points

0 comments1 min readLW link

Warty 10 Nov 2025 9:37 UTC
1 point
0
in reply to: Saul Munn’s comment on: Saul Munn’s Shortform
which one is your favorite?

Warty 4 Nov 2025 7:23 UTC
4 points
0
in reply to: Zack_M_Davis’s comment on: The Tale of the Top-Tier Intellect
hmm it didn’t strike me when reading but that paragraph in OP is kinda bad as you say.

> the minimax theorem

a less complicated and more correct reference is Zermelo’s theorem, this is combinatorial game theory not economic (a further complication of reality is that the wiki article is kinda bad, it’s just induction). The theory also explains that in fact some chess moves are better than others in a mathematical sense, because some worsen the position more than others (e.g. Win->Draw vs Win->Win). Though it doesn’t match what Tessa says about vectors with lengths very well.

Warty 3 Nov 2025 23:09 UTC
−19 points
24
on: The Tale of the Top-Tier Intellect
no way they invented yudslop 💀
What links here?
- Zack_M_Davis's comment on zroe1′s Shortform by zroe1 (7 Jan 2026 19:42 UTC; 5 points)

Warty 2 Nov 2025 22:49 UTC
1 point
0
on: Warty’s Shortform
Interpretations-of-media realism is the claim that there exists at least one interpretative of media statement that is objectively true.

Warty 29 Oct 2025 19:25 UTC
2 points
0
in reply to: tailcalled’s comment on: Major survey on the HS/TS spectrum and gAyGP
that’s what I meant but somewhat jokingly

Warty 29 Oct 2025 0:59 UTC
4 points
0
on: Major survey on the HS/TS spectrum and gAyGP
as a gaygp victim thank you for your service

Warty

Don’t defer to peo­ple when they’re clearly lying

Don’t defer to people when they’re clearly lying