Thanks for the scenario, aphyer.
I made a last minute PVE change which didn’t get into the results, but looks like it would have gotten 64.44% winrate which is still lower than gjm’s. Congrats to gjm and abstractapplic. I also had previously changed my PVE selection which also isn’t in the results, but that change didn’t make any difference—it was still 50%.
Interesting ruleset that has some complicated behaviour, but still allows analysis. I think it was actually quite good in this respect, though even with the extension I didn’t really get to a point where I felt I was done.
If I had continued the analysis, my next thing to look at would have been how different candidate PVP teams, plus yonge’s PVP team, interacted with different team compositions (classified according to the groups
which corresponded to range 1, range 2, and range 3+).
Not sure what I would have ended up concluding from this.
NP aphyer, I didn’t ask for any more time, though I was happy to get some extra due to you extending for yonge. I hadn’t been particularly focused on it for a while, until trying to get things figured out at the last minute, largely I think due to me having spent a greatly disproportionate-to-value effort on figuring out how to do similarity clustering on a highly reduced (and thus much more random) version of the dataset, and then not knowing what to do with the results once I got them. (though I did learn stuff about finding the similarity clustering, so that was good).
Looks like the clusters I found in the reduced dataset more or less corresponded to:
either an aggressive 2-ranged character or everything fairly tanky (FLR cluster)
tending towards tankier 2-ranged and aggressive 1-ranged (melee) character (HSM cluster, note I had excluded B and D from this dataset)
tending towards more aggression to the back (JGP cluster)
So now I’m trying to figure out why the observed FLR>HSM>JGP>FLR rock-paper scissors effect occurred...
edit: a just-so story (don’t know if real reason):
JGP vs FLR: FLR loses the melee first, then likely loses the 2-range since very squishy, then doomed.
FLR vs HSM: HSM loses the melee first. Then FLR might well lose the 2-range first, depending on initiative. FLR would then be splitting damage, but since HSM’s 2-range is already damaged and FLR’s tank typically isn’t that tanky, HSM’s 2 range might well die before FLR’s backline? dunno, seems weak explanation
HSM vs JGP: HSM loses the melee first. But then, the tanky 2-range of HSM tends to last a while, and the tanky melee of JGP doesn’t contribute much. Once JGP loses its 2-range, it splits damage between HSM’s remaining characters, while HSM focuses and defeats JGP’s squishy backline?