Issues with the dutch book beyond the marginal value of money:
It’s not as clear as it should that the LLM IQ loss question is talking about a permanent loss (I may have read it as temporary when answering)
Although the LLM IQ drop question does say “your IQ” there’s an assumption that that sort of thing is a statistical average—and I think the way I use LLMs, for example, is much less likely to drop my IQ than the average person’s usage.
I think is that the LessWrong subscription question is implictly asking about the marginal value of LessWrong given the existence of other resources while the relative LessWrong/LLM value question is implicitly leaning more towards non-marginal value obtained, which might be very many times more
impact: these issues increase LLM/IQ and (Lesswrong/LLM relative to LessWrong/$), which cause errors in the same direction in the LLM/IQ/$/Lesswrong/LLM cycle, potentially by a very large multiplier.
Marginal value due to the high IQ gain of 5 lowers $/IQ which increases IQ/$. This also acts in the same direction.
(That’s my excuse anyway. I suspected the cycle when answering and was fairly confident, without actually checking, that I was going to be way off from a “consistent” value. I gave my excuse as a comment in the survey itself that I was being hasty, but on reflection I still endorse an “inconsistent” result here, modulo the fact that I likely misread at least one question).
If I try this again next year I plan to use the exact same text and values on both sides, which hopefully will clear up most of that kind of issue. It doesn’t really fix marginal value, but I’m not sure that’s fatal to this kind of analysis- I can quote a reasonable price for an apple even though my marginal value of apples drops very fast by the time I hit three digits of apples. I could try and fix this by picking things I think people value vaguely the same but then we miss out on catching scope insensitivity.
Issues with the dutch book beyond the marginal value of money:
It’s not as clear as it should that the LLM IQ loss question is talking about a permanent loss (I may have read it as temporary when answering)
Although the LLM IQ drop question does say “your IQ” there’s an assumption that that sort of thing is a statistical average—and I think the way I use LLMs, for example, is much less likely to drop my IQ than the average person’s usage.
I think is that the LessWrong subscription question is implictly asking about the marginal value of LessWrong given the existence of other resources while the relative LessWrong/LLM value question is implicitly leaning more towards non-marginal value obtained, which might be very many times more
impact: these issues increase LLM/IQ and (Lesswrong/LLM relative to LessWrong/$), which cause errors in the same direction in the LLM/IQ/$/Lesswrong/LLM cycle, potentially by a very large multiplier.
Marginal value due to the high IQ gain of 5 lowers $/IQ which increases IQ/$. This also acts in the same direction.
(That’s my excuse anyway. I suspected the cycle when answering and was fairly confident, without actually checking, that I was going to be way off from a “consistent” value. I gave my excuse as a comment in the survey itself that I was being hasty, but on reflection I still endorse an “inconsistent” result here, modulo the fact that I likely misread at least one question).
If I try this again next year I plan to use the exact same text and values on both sides, which hopefully will clear up most of that kind of issue. It doesn’t really fix marginal value, but I’m not sure that’s fatal to this kind of analysis- I can quote a reasonable price for an apple even though my marginal value of apples drops very fast by the time I hit three digits of apples. I could try and fix this by picking things I think people value vaguely the same but then we miss out on catching scope insensitivity.