I think that it’s likely to take longer than 10000 years, simply because of the logistics (not the technology development, which the AI could do fast).
The gravitational binding energy of the sun is something on the order of 20 million years worth of its energy output. OK, half of the needed energy is already present as thermal energy, and you don’t need to move every atom to infinity, but you still need a substantial fraction of that. And while you could perhaps generate many times more energy than the solar output by various means, I’d guess you’d have to deal with inefficiencies and lots of waste heat if you try to do it really fast. Maybe if you’re smart enough you can make going fast work well enough to be worth it though?
I’m not sure what the details would look like, but I’m pretty sure ASI would have enough new technologies to figure something out within 10,000 years. And expending a bunch of waste heat could easily be worth it, if having more computers allows sending out Von Neumann probes faster / more efficiently to other stars. Since the cost of expending the Sun’s energy has to be compared with the ongoing cost of other stars burning.
I’m not sure what the details would look like, but I’m pretty sure ASI would have enough new technologies to figure something out within 10,000 years.
I feel like this is the main load-bearing claim underlying the post, but it’s barely argued for.
In some sense the sun is already “eating itself” by doing a fusion reaction, which will last for billions more years. So you’re claiming that AI could eat the sun (at least) six orders of magnitude faster, which is not obvious to me.
I don’t think my priors on that are very different from yours but the thing that would have made this post valuable for me is some object-level reason to upgrade my confidence in that.
Doesn’t have to expend the energy. It’s about reshaping the matter to machines. Computers take lots of mass-energy to constitute them, not to power them.
Things can go 6 orders of magnitude faster due to intelligence/agency, it’s not highly unlikely in general.
I agree that in theory the arguments here could be better. It might require knowing more physics than I do, and has the “how does Kasparov beat you at chess” problem.
I agree that it’s plausible just from priors that ASI could find a way to eat the sun. The matter is there, and while it’s strongly gravitationally bound in a way that’s inconvenient, there’s nothing physically impossible about getting it out of that arrangement into one that’s more convenient to using fusion reactors or something.
But an analysis of how plausible the scenario is would certainly have made the post more valuable. There are plausible proposals for how to get the fuel present in the sun out such that it could be used more efficiently, and while it may be possible that an ASI might come up with a more elegant or efficient plan, there are some fundamental physical limits on exactly how efficient the process could be made.
That article says: “This energy could be collected by a Dyson sphere; using 10% of the Sun’s total power output would allow 5.9 x10^21 kilograms of matter to be lifted per year (0.0000003% of the Sun’s total mass)”, but this doesn’t take account of the possibility of using the collected mass to fuel fusion reactions that are then used to power the mass collection. What are the constraints on that process (my first thought is you have to worry about heat if you try to get the total power too high).
10,000 years sounds like enough time if you can get an exponential process going that uses the fuel harvested from the sun to collect more fuel. But any process will have some constraints, such as max temperature at which the various parts of your system can function, or the specific materials which your system is made of (do you have to build your fusion reactors out of materials harvested from metal rich bodies? can you use carbon converted into diamondoid nanomachines? can you get enough of those materials out of the fusion of hydrogen to keep the process going once it’s started?). Even if your fuel harvesters and fusion reactors can stand up to the high temperatures necessary to eat the sun in that time frame, what about everything else in the solar system? Does this process sterilize the earth of biological life?
Once I consider that there will be some sort of physical contraints on the process and also remember the fact that the sun is really big, it’s not obvious that even an exponential process of fuel harvesting from the sun will be completed in a 10,000 year time frame.
If you can use 1kg of hydrogen to lift x>1kg of hydrogen using proton-proton fusion, you are getting exponential bulidup, limited only by “how many proton-proton reactors you can build in Solar system” and “how willing you are to actually build them”, and you can use exponential buildup to create all necessary infrastructure.
I think if you want to go fast, and you can eat the rest of the solar system, you can probably make a huge swarm of fusion reactors to help blow matter off the sun. Let’s say you can build 10^11-watt reactors that work in space. Then you need about 10^15 of them to match the sun. If each is 10^6 kg, this is about 10^-4 of Mercury’s mass.
I think that it’s likely to take longer than 10000 years, simply because of the logistics (not the technology development, which the AI could do fast).
The gravitational binding energy of the sun is something on the order of 20 million years worth of its energy output. OK, half of the needed energy is already present as thermal energy, and you don’t need to move every atom to infinity, but you still need a substantial fraction of that. And while you could perhaps generate many times more energy than the solar output by various means, I’d guess you’d have to deal with inefficiencies and lots of waste heat if you try to do it really fast. Maybe if you’re smart enough you can make going fast work well enough to be worth it though?
I’m not sure what the details would look like, but I’m pretty sure ASI would have enough new technologies to figure something out within 10,000 years. And expending a bunch of waste heat could easily be worth it, if having more computers allows sending out Von Neumann probes faster / more efficiently to other stars. Since the cost of expending the Sun’s energy has to be compared with the ongoing cost of other stars burning.
I feel like this is the main load-bearing claim underlying the post, but it’s barely argued for.
In some sense the sun is already “eating itself” by doing a fusion reaction, which will last for billions more years. So you’re claiming that AI could eat the sun (at least) six orders of magnitude faster, which is not obvious to me.
I don’t think my priors on that are very different from yours but the thing that would have made this post valuable for me is some object-level reason to upgrade my confidence in that.
Doesn’t have to expend the energy. It’s about reshaping the matter to machines. Computers take lots of mass-energy to constitute them, not to power them.
Things can go 6 orders of magnitude faster due to intelligence/agency, it’s not highly unlikely in general.
I agree that in theory the arguments here could be better. It might require knowing more physics than I do, and has the “how does Kasparov beat you at chess” problem.
I agree that it’s plausible just from priors that ASI could find a way to eat the sun. The matter is there, and while it’s strongly gravitationally bound in a way that’s inconvenient, there’s nothing physically impossible about getting it out of that arrangement into one that’s more convenient to using fusion reactors or something.
But an analysis of how plausible the scenario is would certainly have made the post more valuable. There are plausible proposals for how to get the fuel present in the sun out such that it could be used more efficiently, and while it may be possible that an ASI might come up with a more elegant or efficient plan, there are some fundamental physical limits on exactly how efficient the process could be made.
Wikipedia has some discussion of possible methods: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Star_lifting
That article says: “This energy could be collected by a Dyson sphere; using 10% of the Sun’s total power output would allow 5.9 x10^21 kilograms of matter to be lifted per year (0.0000003% of the Sun’s total mass)”, but this doesn’t take account of the possibility of using the collected mass to fuel fusion reactions that are then used to power the mass collection. What are the constraints on that process (my first thought is you have to worry about heat if you try to get the total power too high).
10,000 years sounds like enough time if you can get an exponential process going that uses the fuel harvested from the sun to collect more fuel. But any process will have some constraints, such as max temperature at which the various parts of your system can function, or the specific materials which your system is made of (do you have to build your fusion reactors out of materials harvested from metal rich bodies? can you use carbon converted into diamondoid nanomachines? can you get enough of those materials out of the fusion of hydrogen to keep the process going once it’s started?). Even if your fuel harvesters and fusion reactors can stand up to the high temperatures necessary to eat the sun in that time frame, what about everything else in the solar system? Does this process sterilize the earth of biological life?
Once I consider that there will be some sort of physical contraints on the process and also remember the fact that the sun is really big, it’s not obvious that even an exponential process of fuel harvesting from the sun will be completed in a 10,000 year time frame.
If you can use 1kg of hydrogen to lift x>1kg of hydrogen using proton-proton fusion, you are getting exponential bulidup, limited only by “how many proton-proton reactors you can build in Solar system” and “how willing you are to actually build them”, and you can use exponential buildup to create all necessary infrastructure.
I think if you want to go fast, and you can eat the rest of the solar system, you can probably make a huge swarm of fusion reactors to help blow matter off the sun. Let’s say you can build 10^11-watt reactors that work in space. Then you need about 10^15 of them to match the sun. If each is 10^6 kg, this is about 10^-4 of Mercury’s mass.