Thank you for describing this. My reaction in point form:
-I can understand that general prior against financial advice. After FTX, I had assumed many people here would want to know about such a high risk with the largest crypto exchange. I can certainly skip posting about such risk outliers here in the future.
-I’m not sure “not scholarly enough” is generally that predictive. I’ve seen many posts with many upvotes that didn’t seem very scholarly. I understand the site is trying to maintain more scholarly habits though. If a Manifold market doesn’t tick the right boxes, then thank you for letting me know.
-On manipulation: such a market is probably harder to manipulate than alternative methods I could be using to examine this. What I like about my post is it’s not me saying “I’ve talked to a few people, and here’s my impression of the risks”. It’s using a novel new epistemic tool, one that I have reason to expect is better than whatever my judgment is. I suspect after FTX, everyone in EA is basically still using their own personal judgment about fraud risks, and I expect that will underperform prediction markets in the long-term. I can imagine people disagreeing with me about that, but I think it’s very unfortunate. I still appreciate you letting me know.
I see the first 2 votes were downvotes. Consider me interested in understanding.