Ah, I didn’t even notice that clickbait aspect of the title, I’m so used to thinking of “whistleblower markets” as a thing. I’ve edited the title to just say Manifold market.
Thank you for the response. I actually do have a whole series where some comparisons could be made between crypto enterprises. You’re right that a single is less informative. In the future, I’ll assume I probably won’t have the energy to write up a detailed comparison, and just won’t bother trying to communicate my markets on LessWrong. Not meant to sound bitter—this is useful and will avoid wasting time. (EDIT: Unless there’s some way to format low-quality attempts as prototypes for feedback, perhaps that could be desirable.)
Agreed that the tradeoff of early feedback on partial ideas vs spending a LOT of time on a series only to find it’s not received well is difficult. Labeling something as tentative and partial helps a lot. Giving some outline of how it fits into an overall framework may or may not help.
Probably the biggest tactic I recommend is to use shortform for simple or untested ideas, then expand to a post if it gets good traction.
Also, I probably assume more readers accept the framework than they do. That prediction markets are worth using, that a market’s accuracy rises in a vaguely lognormal way with trading activity, and a random reader usually can’t beat it unless the market has few traders. I could try including a link to Scott Alexander making similar points for me.
Ah, I didn’t even notice that clickbait aspect of the title, I’m so used to thinking of “whistleblower markets” as a thing. I’ve edited the title to just say Manifold market.
Thank you for the response. I actually do have a whole series where some comparisons could be made between crypto enterprises. You’re right that a single is less informative. In the future, I’ll assume I probably won’t have the energy to write up a detailed comparison, and just won’t bother trying to communicate my markets on LessWrong. Not meant to sound bitter—this is useful and will avoid wasting time. (EDIT: Unless there’s some way to format low-quality attempts as prototypes for feedback, perhaps that could be desirable.)
Agreed that the tradeoff of early feedback on partial ideas vs spending a LOT of time on a series only to find it’s not received well is difficult. Labeling something as tentative and partial helps a lot. Giving some outline of how it fits into an overall framework may or may not help.
Probably the biggest tactic I recommend is to use shortform for simple or untested ideas, then expand to a post if it gets good traction.
Short forms it is! Thank you.
Also, I probably assume more readers accept the framework than they do. That prediction markets are worth using, that a market’s accuracy rises in a vaguely lognormal way with trading activity, and a random reader usually can’t beat it unless the market has few traders. I could try including a link to Scott Alexander making similar points for me.