Also does this have any theoretical model that backs it up?
E.g. take N agents with preferred world-states W1, … Wn
Does this system emerge naturally?
Roko
Karma: 6,053
Why shouldn’t this apply recursively?
E.g. imagine that within each of the two major factions, there is a 48%/52% split. Doesn’t that imply civil war within the factions?
If your faction lacks the veto-mechanism but the opposing faction has it doesn’t that mean that the opposing faction is stronger than you because you have a debilitating civil war, but they don’t?
Ability to go sleep… Sleep deprivation is one of the greatest effect sizes for IQ
Interesting!
Being alive is so much fun. Sleep is death, I don’t want to sleep!
I not only feel censored, I am censored in the sense that my ability to speak is being taken away. The causality seems to be people downvoting --> negative karma --> algo prevents posting, but that’s still censorship
The point of probabilities is to quantify uncertainty, not to wait until you are omnipotent and have all the data needed to reach certainty
it’s the largest wet market in central China
Got a source for that?
My impression of Huanan Seafood Market is that it contained only a very small number of animals that are even potential candidates for the virus, and is mostly fish (seafood).
Wikipedia contradicts itself on this, claiming circa 100 animals in one section and then circa 10,000 in a different section. Do you know what is going on here?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Huanan_Seafood_Wholesale_Market#Facility_and_operations
I don’t think you understand probability theory
I’m open to sponsorship to do further research at $200/hr. DM me if you’re interested.
Credibly dismiss? What?
Given that they were already caught in two separate coverups, it is not only not implausible it is highly likely that some kind of cover-up of the early cases was attempted. The only question is whether they succeeded to the extent of making it look like the wet market was the origin.
hmmm interesting
The whole point of probability theory is to make decisions when you do not have “perfect data sources”
Why even talk about probabilistic reasoning if you won’t use it until the data is “perfect” and you are omniscient?
It is not a misprint.
This kind of strategy is rational once you’re sure that The Singularity is going to happen and it’s just a matter of waiting out Moore’s Law, there are benefits to being first.
Yes. I have noticed that I prefer hyphens, and now that I think about why it’s because they make writing less ambiguous.
pandemics are arguably more likely to originate in large cities because population density facilitates spread, large wildlife markets are more likely, and they serve as major travel hubs
China was 63% Urban in 2020.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/270162/urbanization-in-china/
Say it’s 2x more likely in Urban areas. It doesn’t really make that much difference. Plus, there is some probability of it going to Vietnam or other SE Asian countries (Vietnam is closer to Yunnan than Wuhan is).
thx
It’s not specifically DEFUSE, it’s DEFUSE and all possible related dangerous GoF work which became possible post 2017
It doesn’t specifically have to be DEFUSE, it just has to be some work which started after the following key events:
circa 2011: technology becomes available for dangerous GoF and people start discussing it
circa 2018: ban on GoF is lifted
Yes, obviously.
The vast majority of people would inflict huge amounts of disutility on others if they thought they could get away with it and benefitted from it.