I expanded ‘shocked at failure’ into:
The plans you make work.
When they fail, it is because of one of the following reasons:
a predicted reason (you took a risk / made a tradeoff, saw it as low probability or unavoidable)
violation of an explicit assumption (encryption used is secure, won’t crash on the way to the airport)
a black swan (coronavirus, 9/11, stock market crash)
When they fail for reasons other than these, you are extremely surprised and can point to exactly what about your worldview and anticipations misled you.
Two years later, there are now whole brain wide recordings on C. Elegans via calcium imaging. This includes models apparently at least partially predictive of behavior and analysis of individual neuron contributions to behavior.
If you want the “brain-wide recordings and accompanying behavioral data” you can apparently download them here!
It is very exciting to finally have measurements for this. I still need to do more than skim the paper though. While reading it, here are the questions on my mind:
* What are the simplest individual neuron models that properly replicates each measured neuron-activation? (There are different cell types so take that into account too)
* If you run those individually measurement-validated neuron models forward in time, do they collectively produce the large scale behavior seen?
* If not, why not? What’s necessary?
* Are these calcium imaging measurements sufficient to construct the above? (Assume individualized connectomes per-worm are gathered prior instead of using averages across population)
* If not, what else is necessary?
* And if it is sufficient, how do you construct the model parameters from the measurements?
* Can we now measure and falsify our models of individual neuron learning?
* If we need something else, what is that something?
Edit: apparently Gwern is slightly ahead of me and pointed at Andrew Leifer whose group an entire year ago who produced a functional atlas of C Elegans that also included calcium imaging. Which I’d just totally missed. One missing element is extrasynaptic signaling, which apparently has a large impact on C Elegans behavior. So in order to predict neuron behavior you need to attend to those as well.