When they fail, it is because of one of the following reasons:
a predicted reason (you took a risk / made a tradeoff, saw it as low probability or unavoidable)
violation of an explicit assumption (encryption used is secure, won’t crash on the way to the airport)
a black swan (coronavirus, 9/11, stock market crash)
When they fail for reasons other than these, you are extremely surprised and can point to exactly what about your worldview and anticipations misled you.
I expanded ‘shocked at failure’ into:
The plans you make work.
When they fail, it is because of one of the following reasons:
a predicted reason (you took a risk / made a tradeoff, saw it as low probability or unavoidable)
violation of an explicit assumption (encryption used is secure, won’t crash on the way to the airport)
a black swan (coronavirus, 9/11, stock market crash)
When they fail for reasons other than these, you are extremely surprised and can point to exactly what about your worldview and anticipations misled you.