Can your survey give P(long-covid | vaccination status) ?
Randomized, Controlled
Karma: 661
I feel unreasonably validated by this
I posted mine a day after this comment, do you still feel that way?
Some automated phone queuing systems systems (the things where you call in and get put on hold for three days listening to music) offer a service where you can press a button, hang up and they’ll call you back when you would have gotten to the end of the queue.
This should be a mandatory for all these systems.
I would have guessed this was related to the Scott Alexander/NYT thing, but didn’t that resolve months ago?
A rough typology of music micro-skills from my first year and a half learning saxophone.
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Reading music
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Getting notes + annotations correct
Binding notes + annotations + physical movements together crisply. Annotations were learned significantly after notes.
Reading the rests as intervals
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Reading ahead on the sheet
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Executing the next physical move correctly
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Keeping your place in the music synchronized with what you’re fingering...
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...even while you’re beginning to chunk the music into phrases
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Knowing where I am in the piece of music, being able to find my place again if I lose it.
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Generating an internal metronome
Those moments when I notice I’m swaying to the beat vs trying to kickstart with a foot tap
Maintaining a foot tap in time with the music
This is close to, but distinct from Synchronizing with the beat/metronome and Continuing to count beats as you play
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Perception
I feel like at least half of the learning has been being able to perceive things, especially in the time domain.
Being able to discern/repeat beat patterns, eg, couldn’t even perceive 1⁄4 3⁄16 1⁄16 3⁄16 1⁄16 1⁄4 at first. Slowing down + isolating to the minimal (ie, clapping), localizing to different body parts + drawing out the 16th interval all required to integrate what feel like even more granular nano-skills, just with my hand on my leg.
Reminds me of cog reflection tests, where my rhythmic intuition intuition STRONGLY force me towards playing 1⁄4 1⁄16 3⁄16 1⁄16 3⁄16 1⁄4, the inverse of the intended swing. This was made worse by the visually even spacing of the notes on the page.
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Breath
Getting breaths between notes: not running out of wind
Exhaling from the diaphragmatic, with an open throat. Mostly the breath stream should be continuous with stops created by the tongue on the reed—maintaining a steady stream of lung pressure is counter-intuitive.
Volume control
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Mouth
Not destroying your tongue when tonguing notes
Not destroying your lower lip
Coordinating fingers, tongue and breath
Stable embourche
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Hands
Keeping the fingers on the keys
Hand/finger positioning to minimize strain
Eg, getting crisp transitions between notes
Slurring
Eg, getting crisp transitions between notes, eg B → C
Crossing the break, from C to high D
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Sitting and standing postures that don’t leave me sore or with soft-tissue issues
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The ability to love the sound and love the process
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Instrument maintenance & care
Daily and less frequent cleaning
Safe handling
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Executing multiple micro-skills at the same time or quicky in a chain
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Breath/mouth/hand coordination
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Diagnosing problems: is it the reed, mouth, sax, etc? Guidance here is important.
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Vocalizing the beat to yourself internally?
Probably not everyone does this?
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Sorry, I was being a bit flip/insider-y. Probably inappropriately so.
I’m curious how much you’ve engaged with the AI Safety literature/arguments?
“Yudkowsky’s DM” --> Eliezer Yudkowsky’s [Twitter] Direct Messages.
In the software industry we have the concept of responsible disclosure when one finds a security exploit in a published package.
Do we have responsible disclosure procedures for something that may represent a fundamental AI capability advancement? Who would you even disclose to? Slide into Yudkowsky’s DMs?
There were periods of time when I would look at the site two or three times a week, but often just to check the ‘adjusted prevalence’ numbers, which are hidden by default under the “Details” dropdown. Oh, yeah, prevalence hasn’t changed much, no need to update cached models, cool. Probably worth ~$20 aggregated.
The biggest update for me was realizing that going to the dentist was much less risky than it intuitively felt. This was great, probably worth at least $100 (or, I dunno, maybe worth negative money if the dentist is actually net harmful to me, which is possible 😂)
I’d agree that quantification of risks for Long Covid: probably at least $200.
Updates for future variants: probably at least $50.
To what extent do you think the Chinese know this ‘disinfecting’ is the Goggles, and does nothing, but are doing it anyway?
Huh. Just like in Parasite.
The rec that’s been floating around LW is for zinc acetate (there are a couple of other zinc compounds that are also LW blessed). Life Extension brand has the offically sanctioned formulation. They’re big and the dogma is that you have to suck on them to allow throat coating to occur; it’s a surface effect. Apply at first sign of symptoms (or as soon as you suspect exposure). Maybe someone more energetic/diligent than me will dig up one of the actual references—all of this is from my memory.
don’t suppose you’re able to share how you’re able to get fluvoxamine?
Kelsey Piper has argued that it looks like there was out right fraud in a lot of the ivermectin studies; see also her recent appearance on the rationally speaking podcast, which updates this thread a bit.
The Lab Leak Hypothesis Part 2
Feel like you buried the lede here, Zvi. If this is a lab leak (potentially a second one for covid) seems like it has huge+urgent implications for biosecurity policy and us-all-not-dying etc.
Even if covid itself turns out to be a nothingburger on the larger scale of things, if we’re this eagerly stepping on rakes, maybe we should think harder about picking up all the rakes rather than deciding to start jumping around.
What’s with the US citizen limit? It’s almost as if they want to fiscriminate* against non American citizens.
*initially a typo, but I endorse it
Think it’s four on the sides + one on the top?
🤣 this thread was worth it just for that
I have a solution that involves moving back and forth across the loop. You pick a starting point, car 0, and move +1 car right and ensure the light is on, then go left to car −1 and ensure the light is off; then go to car +2: ON, car −2: off, etc.
The first time you travel more than half way around the loop, you’ll toggle a switch from the “other branch”, which you’ll then discover when you reverse. That will allow you to compute the total size of the loop.
Two months ago, on another first date my match spent 90 minutes trying to solve a simple logical riddle, then gave up and left. I didn’t hear from her again.
what was the riddle?
Thank you for this. I’d say prior to reading this I was around 70% that for someone recently vaccinated or boosted Omicron isn’t really worth worrying about, and getting Omicron at some point might even be +EV, due to cross immunity effect. I’d say now I’m around.. 45% on this?
My sense is that EAs in general have not been in the “strict lockdown” mode, trying to do some more careful tradeoffs to allow for things like EAGs. This struck me as.. reasonable-ish at the time, (even up through delta). But if Omicron has a similar long-covid story, this suggests that the upcoming EAGs may not be a good idea in person.