No one believes the Jesus market will resolve to Yes
That’s why I chose that market as an example of incentives being unilaterally broken in a single direction; ~everyone agrees that ~3% market won’t happen, but no one has much incentive to trade in that direction collecting >$30k USD correcting that market because that’d return lower than the risk-free rate. Both posts similarly claim interest rates are essential to understanding how much prediction markets reflect actual event probabilities, and interest rate distortion becomes more unilaterally directional the further a market should be from 50%
This also misses the time value of money; fixed heuristics don’t capture that the effect is more pronounced the further out the settlement date is (already prediction markets with 2030s settlement dates)