the appetite for conditional risk regulation has been substantially less than the appetite for direct risk regulation
Where do you see the latter appetite?
We campaigned a bit for a conditional treaty. We’d happily sign up for un unconditional pause though. Problem is: there is no appetite for either, right?
I agree that the manpower spent on evals should have been spent on other things with a better theory of change. Eval quality imo is not a crux for regulation, awareness and political support are. I think the money that went to evals should have gone to raising awareness and lobbying.
Honestly why is there still no significant funding for awareness raising projects? It’s so easy: just ask for amount of views/copies and conversion rates measured via e.g. Prolific surveys and fund the most effective projects. A fund like this can easily absorb millions. I think this might actually get regulation off the ground.
Just want to flag that not everyone on lesswrong is libertarian or right-wing. Left xriskers are a minority but we exist.